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Egypt Public Expenditure Review for the Human Development Sectors

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank Group

This Public Expenditure Review (PER) aims at informing government efforts to pursue its commitment to enhancing socioeconomic outcomes through more and better spending on human capital. To achieve this important objective, the Government of Egypt (GoE) aims at creating the fiscal space needed to increase growth-enhancing spending in a way that reflects positively on socioeconomic outcomes. This PER analyzes the adequacy, efficiency, and equity of public spending on the human development sectors. It examines options to create fiscal space by reducing inefficient and wasteful spending within this sector and increasing the impact of existing resources. From an equity perspective, the PER examines how public resources are distributed within the sector, and across income groups and/or geographical regions, and how system-wide reforms can reduce inequality in spending and outcomes. Drawing on a fiscal incidence analysis jointly carried out with the MOF, the distributional impact of potential fiscal measures and other policy changes is simulated to inform the reforms agenda. The first part of the review (Volume I) presents the macro-fiscal context and its constraints. It also presents an analysis of the social protection system in place to mitigate the effects of the challenging macroeconomic environment. The second part of the review (Volume II) focuses on the most difficult challenges facing the core human development sectors, namely health, education and higher education.
Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20) World Bank

The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery.
Towards a More Inclusive Economy: Understanding the Barriers Sudanese Women and Youth Face in Accessing Employment Opportunities

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Etang, Alvin ; Lundvall, Jonna ; Osman, Eiman ; Wistrand, Jennifer

The report is organized as follows. After a brief description of the analytical framing and methodology in section two, section three presents the history and demographics of the labor market in Sudan, focusing on indicators by gender and age across the three main sectors of employment: services, agriculture, and industry. Section four examines formal institutions: the institutional setting, service delivery, and laws and regulations as they relate to economic opportunities. Section five examines informal institutions, where the social norms and networks can be a barrier to women’s and youth’s full economic participation. Section six analyzes how the market is supporting or constraining economic activity, which includes a closer look at the labor market itself and access to assets. Section seven discusses how all of these aspects are considered when it comes to the household- and individual-level decision-making that directly affects women’s and youth’s accumulation of human capital, overall agency, and, ultimately, their economic opportunities. Section eight concludes with considerations for policy and action.
Internationalization of Tertiary Education in the Middle East and North Africa

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020) World Bank

Conceived in order to provide a crucial baseline in research on internationalization in MENA, this report draws on available data to respond to both a real need for regional analysis and a direct demand from stakeholders, including tertiary education institutions in the region. Encouraging internationalization to be mainstreamed throughout MENA is the objective that this report seeks to achieve by way of stimulating regional policy dialogue on the subject. The report presents some global trends in internationalization and details its main benefits, before providing an overview of the current status of internationalization in the MENA region, including an in-depth analysis of student mobility. In its reflections on the way forward for the region, the report situates its recommendations in the context of COVID-19, within which, despite serious challenges due to a lack of attractiveness of the region, MENA may find a key opportunity. It suggests that adapting to the “new normal” through the deeper implementation of internationalization “at home” – a dimension that does not require physical mobility and, being implemented within domestic environments, has a much wider reach – may help enable the region to make strides towards catching up on the internationalization agenda.
Cities of Refuge in the Middle East: Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-09-14) World Bank

This policy note aims to advance our understanding of urban forced displacement, induced by conflict, by looking at the issue from the perspective of receiving towns and cities. It explores why we need a different approach to addressing urban forced displacement; how to “think differently” about urban forced displacement along the humanitarian-development assistance spectrum; what we can learn from existing urbanization and other relevant experiences to inform humanitarian and development responses; and what “thinking differently” means for local, national, and international development actors. The primary audiences of the note are development and humanitarian practitioners as well as policy makers who are increasingly confronted with the urban dimensions of protracted forced displacement.
Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee

(Washington, DC, 2015-09-30) World Bank

Palestinians are getting poorer on average for the third year in a row. As evidenced in previous World Bank reports, the competitiveness of the Palestinian economy has been progressively eroding since the signing of the Oslo accords, in particular its industry and agriculture. Even though donor aid had increased government-funded services and fueled consumption-driven growth during 2007 to 2011, this growth model has proved unsustainable. Donor support has significantly declined in recent years and, in any case, aid cannot sustainably make up for inadequate private investment. Thus, growth has started to slow since 2012 and the Palestinian economy contracted in 2014 following the Gaza war. In early 2015, GDP was still lower than it was a year ago. Due to population growth, real GDP per capita has been shrinking since 2013. Unemployment remains high, particularly amongst Gaza’s youth where it exceeds 60 percent, and 25 percent of Palestinians currently live in poverty. Against the backdrop of weak economic growth, reduced donor aid, and temporary suspension of revenue payments by the Government of Israel (GoI), the Palestinian Authority’s reform efforts have not been able to prevent another year with a financing gap. The persistence of this situation could potentially lead to political and social unrest. In short, the status quo is not sustainable and downside risks of further conflict and social unrest are high.
The Unfulfilled Promise of Oil and Growth : Poverty, Inclusion and Welfare in Iraq 2007-2012

(Washington, DC, 2014-12-01) World Bank

Iraq appears to have firmly entered the ranks of upper middle-income countries in 2012, having experienced strong economic growth following the establishment of a civilian elected government in 2005-06. In 2012 the years of growth culminated in a per capita GDP of 2472 constant 2005 US$. This three-volume poverty and inclusion assessment provides the first in-depth analysis of Iraq's economic and social development during the period of 2007 to 2012. Volume 1 is an overview of the economic climate in Iraq, providing brushstroke descriptions of its poverty reduction plans, labor markets, public health data, and education focal points. Volume 2 is a nine-chapter report on the years between 2007 and 2012, a period of relative stability in Iraq. 2007 marks the end of sectarian violence, which lasted until 2012, prior to the militancy and insurgency in the northern governorates of the summer of 2014. The country has been a nexus of conflict and fragility since the early 1980s, and has experienced multiple types of conflict: insurgency, international war, sectarian strife, persistent terrorism, regional fragmentation, and spillovers from conflict in other countries. What should have been a promising endowment of natural resources of land, oil and gas, as well of human capital, did not provide the foundation for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The realization of potential was confounded by war and repression. A key priority of the Government of Iraq since 2005-06 has been to fill the huge knowledge gap in terms of a deeper understanding of the state of the economy and of a range of socioeconomic indicators of welfare with the objective of building a strong evidence base for effective policy making. The rich analyses presented in this report go well beyond counting the poor. It gives an incisive understanding of the multi-layered development challenges faced by the nation, which serves as a testament to the commitment of the Government of Iraq, the staff of the Central Statistics Office, and the Kurdistan Region Statistics Office. It will form the basis for a new strategy for Iraq's development and ensure broad-based welfare improvements for the population. Volume 3 consists of nine annexes and nine references in the forms of tables, boxes, and equations used in the methodologies.
Harnessing the Global Recovery, A Tough Road Ahead

(Washington, DC, 2014-04) World Bank

Many countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will start to benefit from stronger external demand in the high-income economies, as the global economy is set for a rebound in 2014. After a marked slowdown in 2013, a recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase by 0.8 percentage points compared to 2013. Global output is expected to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2015. The World Bank estimates that growth in the United States (U.S.) will increase by 1 percentage point reaching 2.8 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015; and the Euro Zone will improve to 1.1 percent and accelerate to 1.4 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, relative to negative 0.4 percent growth in 2013. The growth rebound in the Euro Zone is largely export led, with Germany and France continuing to expand at a solid pace, and Spain exiting recession. The world travel and tourism council estimates show that tourism revenues will increase by 7 percent in the MENA region in 2015 relative to 2014. To be sure, the global recovery is still fragile and downside risks, including continued low inflation in high-income economies, which can weaken demand and delay the economic recovery, and the escalation of conflict in Ukraine remain. This report presents the short-term, regional macroeconomic outlook, and economic challenges facing the countries in the MENA region. In this report, the MENA region is divided into three subgroups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil exporters, developing oil exporters, and oil importers.
Inclusion and Resilience : The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa, OVERVIEW

(Washington, DC, 2012-09) Morgandi, Matteo ; Silva, Joana ; Levin, Victoria

The report aims to meet two broad objectives: (a) enhance knowledge about the current state of existing social safety nets (SSNs) and assess their effectiveness in responding to new and emerging challenges to the poor and vulnerable in the region by bringing together new evidence, data, and country-specific analysis; and (b) open up and inform a debate on feasible policy options to make SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative. First chapter, 'a framework for SSN reform,' describes and illustrates the reasons for the region's growing need for SSN reform and establishes the framework for renewed SSNs. It identifies key goals for SSNs (promoting social inclusion, livelihood, and resilience) and illustrates how these goals have been achieved in some parts of the region and elsewhere. Second chapter, 'key challenges that call for renewed SSNs,' analyzes the challenges facing the region's poor and vulnerable households, which SSNs could focus on as a priority. Two large groups are at higher-than-average poverty risk: children and those who live in rural or lagging areas. The chapter examines factors such as inequality of opportunities and lack of access to services that can perpetuate the lower human development outcomes among the poor in these groups. It also describes the challenge of vulnerability. Finally, it identifies particular social groups that are at a higher risk of exclusion from access to services and employment. Third chapter, 'the current state of SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa,' analyzes SSN spending and assesses different aspects of the SSN systems' performance. Fourth chapter, 'the political economy of SSN reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what do citizens want?' presents new evidence on citizens' preferences concerning redistribution and SSN design, using newly collected data. It also discusses how political economy considerations could be taken into account in designing renewed SSNs in the region. Fifth chapter, 'the way forward: how to make safety nets in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative,' proposes an agenda for reform and the path for moving forward, using global experience and the evidence presented in the preceding chapters.
Reshaping Egypt's Economic Geography : Domestic Integration as a Development Platform

(Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank

This report investigates Egypt's regional economic growth, explores the causes for geographically unbalanced development, and proposes policy options to make unbalanced growth compatible with inclusive development. Regional disparities in income and consumption may be attributed to differences in natural endowments and geographical location, but unbalanced growth is mostly due to economies of scale, spillover effects, and the lower transaction costs that result from agglomeration. In Egypt, despite rapid progress in most welfare indicators in lagging regions, there are still substantial gaps in consumption and opportunities between growth poles and the rest of the country. Adopting integration as a development platform is not simple because spatial disparities are spanned in three dimensions: urban/rural dichotomies, the upper Egypt/lower Egypt duality, and the differences between large metropolises and the rest of the country. This typology of instruments underlies the menu of options presented in this report as the basis of domestic spatial integration as a development platform to achieve more balanced and equitable development without sacrificing growth. This report first identifies the gaps in consumption and in opportunities, showing the stark contrasts between regions and how they evolve through time. It then explores the causes of the gaps, revealing a multiplicity of factors and exposing the complexity of the problem. Finally, the bulk of the report presents the policy options to address the integration challenges.