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  • Publication
    Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2023 - Building Success, Breaking Barriers: Unlocking the Economic Power of Women in Jordan
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-21) World Bank
    Jordan’s real growth registered 2.4 percent in 2022 and has accelerated to 2.7 percent in H1-2023, compared to a pre-COVID-19 (2012-2019) average of 2.4 percent. Growth was supported by the services sector, agriculture sector, in addition to a robust contribution from agriculture. Inflation decelerated significantly in 2023, supported by favorable base effect, monetary policy tightening and lower global commodity prices. External imbalances have narrowed, supported by a string recovery in tourism activity and travel receipts. Central government fiscal balance was supported by economic growth and revenue-enhancing reforms, whereas total expenditure grew at a slower pace. Despite these positive developments, entrenched structural constraints weigh on labor market outcomes, as labor force participation continues its gradual decline driven by a fall in both male and female participation. Jordanian female labor participation remains among the lowest in the world. Debt-to-GDP ratios continues to rise from already elevated levels with persisting pressures from the electricity and water sectors. The global and regional environments remain challenging. In particular, the conflict in the Middle East has the potential for material economic spillovers on the Jordanian economy, including through its impact on tourism activity. The “In Focus” section highlights the role of women and their increased economic participation as central to Jordan’s development agenda. The piece takes a life cycle approach and follows the journey of girls and women from birth through education and into the labor market. It sheds light on two of the main barriers to women’s increased participation in the economy: childcare and public transportation. A comprehensive institutional renovation, together with enabling policies and a clear signal regarding the role of women, are all crucial in removing barriers and facilitate the integration of women into the labor force.
  • Publication
    Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20) World Bank
    The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery.
  • Publication
    Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2015: A Hiccup Amidst Sustained Resilience and Committed Reforms
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10-01) World Bank
    The Jordan economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Jordan. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for the country. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Jordan.
  • Publication
    Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
    (Washington, DC, 2015-09-30) World Bank
    Palestinians are getting poorer on average for the third year in a row. As evidenced in previous World Bank reports, the competitiveness of the Palestinian economy has been progressively eroding since the signing of the Oslo accords, in particular its industry and agriculture. Even though donor aid had increased government-funded services and fueled consumption-driven growth during 2007 to 2011, this growth model has proved unsustainable. Donor support has significantly declined in recent years and, in any case, aid cannot sustainably make up for inadequate private investment. Thus, growth has started to slow since 2012 and the Palestinian economy contracted in 2014 following the Gaza war. In early 2015, GDP was still lower than it was a year ago. Due to population growth, real GDP per capita has been shrinking since 2013. Unemployment remains high, particularly amongst Gaza’s youth where it exceeds 60 percent, and 25 percent of Palestinians currently live in poverty. Against the backdrop of weak economic growth, reduced donor aid, and temporary suspension of revenue payments by the Government of Israel (GoI), the Palestinian Authority’s reform efforts have not been able to prevent another year with a financing gap. The persistence of this situation could potentially lead to political and social unrest. In short, the status quo is not sustainable and downside risks of further conflict and social unrest are high.
  • Publication
    Mauritania : Counting on Natural Wealth for a Sustainable Future
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Mele, Gianluca
    A data set of key macro-sustainability indicators, constructed after several fact-finding missions, and World Bank methodologies on estimating wealth accounting are used to study Mauritania's wealth, which is estimated to be between USD50 and USD60 billion. The country's produced wealth represents roughly 12 percent of total wealth, much less than in lower-middle-income countries; by contrast, natural wealth represents approximately 45 percent of the total figure. Renewable resources account for slightly less than two-thirds of natural wealth, with fisheries alone equaling about one-fourth of natural wealth. This is good news for Mauritania, as sound management of these resources may ensure a constant flow of resources in the future and therefore -- with adequate policies -- the achievement of the same or higher levels of welfare for future generations. On the negative side, however, the ratio of net adjusted savings over gross national income is estimated to have been negative since 2006, meaning that the wealth of the country is being depleted. Mauritania has recently joined the ranks of lower-middle-income countries, largely thanks to its considerable natural resources endowment. Over time the mining sector's contribution to gross domestic product has grown significantly and important discoveries continue to be made. The overarching objective of this wealth accounting exercise is thus to support Mauritania to measure its assets better and achieve a more complete picture of the prospects for future income, with a view to better orienting public policies toward sustainable growth and shared prosperity. The paper concludes with several indicative policy recommendations.
  • Publication
    Microcredit Interest Rates and Their Determinants, 2004-2011
    (CGAP, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Rosenberg, Richard; Gaul, Scott; Ford, William; Tomilova, Olga
    From the beginning of modern microcredit, its most controversial dimension has been the interest rates charged by micro lenders, often referred to as microfinance institutions (MFIs). These rates are higher, often much higher, than normal bank rates, mainly because it inevitably costs more to lend and collect a given amount through thousands of tiny loans than to lend and collect the same amount in a few large loans. Higher administrative costs have to be covered by higher interest rates. Many people worry that poor borrowers are being exploited by excessive interest rates, given that those borrowers have little bargaining power, and that an ever-larger proportion of microcredit is moving into for-profit organizations where higher interest rates could, as the story goes, mean higher returns for the shareholders. Section one looks at the level and trend of micro lenders' interest rates worldwide, and breaks them out among different types of institutions (peer groups). Section two examines the cost of funds that micro lenders borrow to fund their loan portfolio. Section three reports on loan losses, including, worrisome recent developments in two large markets. Section four presents trends in operating expenses, and touches on the closely related issue of loan size. Section five looks at micro lenders' profits, the most controversial component of microcredit interest rates. A reader without time to read the whole paper may wish to skip to section six, which provides a graphic overview of the movement of interest rates and their components over the period and a summary of the main findings. The annex describes our database and methodology, including the reasons for dropping four large microlenders6 from the analysis.
  • Publication
    Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Development Policy Review : Improving Institutions, Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms for Greater Growth Resilience and Sustained Job Creation (Vol. 1 of 2)
    (Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank
    Jordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.
  • Publication
    Iraq Investment Climate Assessment 2012
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012) World Bank
    Despite decades of war and instability, Iraq's abundant natural resources, strategic geographic location and cultural history endow Iraq with tremendous potential for growth and diverse economic development. Driven by windfall oil revenues in recent years, the Government of Iraq has invested heavily in rebuilding the infrastructure of the country, and its abundant oil reserves ensure that progress can continue steadily. This report was initiated at the request of the Iraqi government to assess the local investment climate and identify those high priority factors which most significantly impede private sector development in Iraq, in an effort to prioritize the recommended investments, institutional and regulatory reforms which would most significantly contribute to sustainable private sector growth and increased productivity.
  • Publication
    Sudan: Rapid Assessment of the Public Investment Portfolio in the Fiscal Adjustment Context
    (Washington, DC, 2011-10) World Bank
    Public investment to facilitate growth and poverty reduction is paramount to Sudan's development challenge. The acute need for rebuilding the country's deteriorated infrastructure and service delivery framework underscores the importance of more active and effective public investment. The disproportional composition of the spending adjustment raises particular concern on pro-poor and public investment spending during the subsequent fiscal adjustment period expected to follow. Under the growing fiscal decentralization trend, the state governments have taken up the primary responsibility to provide basic public service deliveries to the poor; in such a decentralized constellation, reduced support from the federal budget could seriously jeopardize the provision of basic services at the state and locality level. In particular, public investment expenditure now has to effectively address service delivery needs and the broader development agenda, while at the same time the overall resource envelope is declining. This note is the result of a rapid assessment of Sudan's public investment portfolio in the context of the anticipated fiscal adjustment. It is not a full-fledged review on public investment projects or the public investment management system. The main scope of the assessment is: to quickly identify available information on public investment projects from existing sources; to provide an contextual overview of the overall public investment portfolio in light of the imminent needs for rationalizing the public investment portfolio; and to outline conceptual guidelines for public investment adjustments and to propose longer-term tasks to improve public investment management.
  • Publication
    Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2010: Recovering from the Crisis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-04-01) Ianchovichina, Elena; Mottaghi, Lili; Farazi, Subika; Silwal, Ani
    This edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economic update concerns the region recovering from the financial crisis along with the global economy. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 4.4 percent region-wide, driven by domestic absorption as well as a positive contribution from external demand. The recovery from the crisis differs by country depending on initial conditions and the intensity of the impact via the three principal channels through which the global financial crisis affected MENA economies-the financial sector, the price of oil, and the balance of payments, reflecting the impact on trade, remittances and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are leading the regional recovery as oil prices have rebounded and the GCC financial sector is stabilizing. Developing oil exporters felt the impact of the crisis, and now the recovery, largely through the oil price channel, due to the limited integration of their banking sectors into global financial markets and the importance of oil in their exports. The oil importers were affected by the crisis through the secondary effects on trade, remittances, and FDI flows, so their recovery will depend crucially on the recovery in key markets, especially the EU and the GCC countries. High unemployment has been a problem in MENA for years, and the crisis has dimmed prospects for improvements in the near term. Ample oil and gas resources, a youthful and growing workforce, and a growing momentum to look for ways to diversify their economies imply that the growth potential of the region is high, but MENA countries continue to face formidable longer term challenges. Ensuring access to finance without compromising financial stability will be a major challenge in MENA, although issues related to weak regulatory systems, corporate governance and overdependence on the banking system also loom large. Key problems of the business environment in MENA include policy and regulatory uncertainty and discretion in implementing reforms which prevent a level playing field for all firms and encourage the pursuit of privileged access. These problems, coupled with barriers to entry and exit, have created an environment of stagnation. Addressing these issues will require applying rules and regulations consistently and without discrimination among firms and introducing reforms that promote business dynamism, private investment, and innovation.