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Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-11-22) Hoogeveen, Johannes G. ; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys ; Hoogeveen, Johannes G. ; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys

COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about $227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Pre-pandemic MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. This Report investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with micro-simulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty and inequality. The two approaches perform a complementary task by corroborating each other’s results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This Report’s results show that in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly, and that inequality will widen. A group of “new poor” is likely to emerge that may have difficulty to recover from the economic consequences of the pandemic. The Report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modelled micro-macro simulations and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive and sustained economic recovery.
Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2015: A Hiccup Amidst Sustained Resilience and Committed Reforms

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10-01) World Bank

The Jordan economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Jordan. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for the country. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Jordan.
Shaping Healthier Societies and Building Higher Performing Health Systems in the GCC Countries

(Washington, DC, 2015-04) World Bank Group

This policy note summarizes the central health sector trends and challenges in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). These countries are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, and Qatar. The note also provides an overview of the GCC country context, discussing the commonalities between the six member states, and the major areas of engagement by the health, nutrition, and population (HNP) global practice of the World Bank in support of the health sector reform priorities of these countries. The areas of engagement focus on three main clusters of work: (i) developing multi-layered solutions for improving non-communicable disease and road safety outcomes; (ii) health system strengthening; and (iii) integrating health policy solutions within the wider institutional and policy frameworks in the GCC countries. The note builds on an earlier HNP regional strategy prepared by the World Bank in 2013 focusing on the concepts of fairness and accountability. The strategy highlighted the importance of improvements in health system performance in MENA countries from an equity, accountability, and fiscal sustainability perspective. The framework of the strategy covers equity in health status, financial protection and responsiveness, and the accountability of populations, payers, and health service providers interacting within the health system.
The Unfulfilled Promise of Oil and Growth : Poverty, Inclusion and Welfare in Iraq 2007-2012

(Washington, DC, 2014-12-01) World Bank

Iraq appears to have firmly entered the ranks of upper middle-income countries in 2012, having experienced strong economic growth following the establishment of a civilian elected government in 2005-06. In 2012 the years of growth culminated in a per capita GDP of 2472 constant 2005 US$. This three-volume poverty and inclusion assessment provides the first in-depth analysis of Iraq's economic and social development during the period of 2007 to 2012. Volume 1 is an overview of the economic climate in Iraq, providing brushstroke descriptions of its poverty reduction plans, labor markets, public health data, and education focal points. Volume 2 is a nine-chapter report on the years between 2007 and 2012, a period of relative stability in Iraq. 2007 marks the end of sectarian violence, which lasted until 2012, prior to the militancy and insurgency in the northern governorates of the summer of 2014. The country has been a nexus of conflict and fragility since the early 1980s, and has experienced multiple types of conflict: insurgency, international war, sectarian strife, persistent terrorism, regional fragmentation, and spillovers from conflict in other countries. What should have been a promising endowment of natural resources of land, oil and gas, as well of human capital, did not provide the foundation for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The realization of potential was confounded by war and repression. A key priority of the Government of Iraq since 2005-06 has been to fill the huge knowledge gap in terms of a deeper understanding of the state of the economy and of a range of socioeconomic indicators of welfare with the objective of building a strong evidence base for effective policy making. The rich analyses presented in this report go well beyond counting the poor. It gives an incisive understanding of the multi-layered development challenges faced by the nation, which serves as a testament to the commitment of the Government of Iraq, the staff of the Central Statistics Office, and the Kurdistan Region Statistics Office. It will form the basis for a new strategy for Iraq's development and ensure broad-based welfare improvements for the population. Volume 3 consists of nine annexes and nine references in the forms of tables, boxes, and equations used in the methodologies.
Mauritania : Counting on Natural Wealth for a Sustainable Future

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Mele, Gianluca

A data set of key macro-sustainability indicators, constructed after several fact-finding missions, and World Bank methodologies on estimating wealth accounting are used to study Mauritania's wealth, which is estimated to be between USD50 and USD60 billion. The country's produced wealth represents roughly 12 percent of total wealth, much less than in lower-middle-income countries; by contrast, natural wealth represents approximately 45 percent of the total figure. Renewable resources account for slightly less than two-thirds of natural wealth, with fisheries alone equaling about one-fourth of natural wealth. This is good news for Mauritania, as sound management of these resources may ensure a constant flow of resources in the future and therefore -- with adequate policies -- the achievement of the same or higher levels of welfare for future generations. On the negative side, however, the ratio of net adjusted savings over gross national income is estimated to have been negative since 2006, meaning that the wealth of the country is being depleted. Mauritania has recently joined the ranks of lower-middle-income countries, largely thanks to its considerable natural resources endowment. Over time the mining sector's contribution to gross domestic product has grown significantly and important discoveries continue to be made. The overarching objective of this wealth accounting exercise is thus to support Mauritania to measure its assets better and achieve a more complete picture of the prospects for future income, with a view to better orienting public policies toward sustainable growth and shared prosperity. The paper concludes with several indicative policy recommendations.
Harnessing the Global Recovery, A Tough Road Ahead

(Washington, DC, 2014-04) World Bank

Many countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will start to benefit from stronger external demand in the high-income economies, as the global economy is set for a rebound in 2014. After a marked slowdown in 2013, a recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase by 0.8 percentage points compared to 2013. Global output is expected to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2015. The World Bank estimates that growth in the United States (U.S.) will increase by 1 percentage point reaching 2.8 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015; and the Euro Zone will improve to 1.1 percent and accelerate to 1.4 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, relative to negative 0.4 percent growth in 2013. The growth rebound in the Euro Zone is largely export led, with Germany and France continuing to expand at a solid pace, and Spain exiting recession. The world travel and tourism council estimates show that tourism revenues will increase by 7 percent in the MENA region in 2015 relative to 2014. To be sure, the global recovery is still fragile and downside risks, including continued low inflation in high-income economies, which can weaken demand and delay the economic recovery, and the escalation of conflict in Ukraine remain. This report presents the short-term, regional macroeconomic outlook, and economic challenges facing the countries in the MENA region. In this report, the MENA region is divided into three subgroups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil exporters, developing oil exporters, and oil importers.
West Bank and Gaza Investment Climate Assessment : Fragmentation and Uncertainty

(Washington, DC, 2014-01) World Bank Group

This Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) seeks to evaluate the conditions under which the Palestinian private sector currently operates in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza strip. This assessment is both an update and expansion on a similar assessment undertaken by the World Bank in 2006. As such, it provides both a snapshot of the investment climate in 2013, as well as a longitudinal view of what has changed in the intervening seven years and, just as importantly, what has not. Where relevant, it also compares indicators of the Palestinian investment climate with those of other countries in the region and beyond. The objective of this assessment is to provide the Palestinian business community, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the international development community with an empirical analysis of the investment climate under which Palestinian businesses operate. The report describes the key constraints on business and investment and identifies reform priorities for those aspects of the investment climate and constraints which are within the PA's control, as well as some policy recommendations for areas outside of the PA's control, but within the domain of development partner assistance agendas and/or Israeli policies. This analysis is intended to inform Palestinian policy-maker actions to improve the business environment. It can also help inform the actions of other concerned parties, including the international development community, regional actors, and the Government of Israel regarding policies that affect Palestinian economic growth and sustainability.
Building Resilience : Integrating Climate and Disaster Risk into Development

(Washington, DC, 2013-11) World Bank

This report presents the World Bank Group's experience in climate and disaster resilient development and contends that it is essential to eliminate extreme poverty and achieve shared prosperity by 2030. The report argues for closer collaboration between the climate resilience and disaster risk management communities through the incorporation of climate and disaster resilience into broader development processes. Selected case studies are used to illustrate promising approaches, lessons learned, and remaining challenges all in contribution to the loss and damage discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The introduction provides an overview of the UNFCCC and also introduces key concepts and definitions relevant to climate and disaster resilient development. Section two describes the impacts of globally increasing weather-related disasters in recent decades. Section three summarizes how the World Bank Group's goals to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity are expected to be affected by rising disaster losses in a changing climate. Section four discusses the issue of attribution in weather-related disasters, and the additional start-up costs involved in climate and disaster resilient development. Section five builds upon the processes and instruments developed by the climate resilience and the disaster risk management communities of practice to provide some early lessons learned in this increasingly merging field. Section six highlights case studies and emerging good practices in climate and disaster resilient development. Section seven concludes the report, summarizing key lessons learned and identifying potential gaps and avenues for future work.
Implementing Consumer Protection in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Technical Guide for Bank Supervisors

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08-16) Dias, Denise

Financial consumer protection regulation reflects the regulator's and policy makers' concerns with the relationship between financial institutions and their clients. Most emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) researched for this guide have regulated at least one financial consumer protection topic. Each detail in the regulatory requirements impacts how the supervisor enforces them in practice and which tools and techniques will work best. For example, a rule simply requiring disclosure of an item will be checked by the field supervisor differently than a rule requiring the item to be disclosed at a specific moment and in a specified format. Ignoring the time dimension of this rule can jeopardize its core goal. This guide is an attempt to help bank supervisors enforce such regulations. It is divided into following sections: section one gives introduction. Section two details guidance points in eight areas of interest for supervisory staff and agencies, while section three suggests a prioritization framework for supervisors - particularly those in low-income countries with resource and capacity constraints - that adopt a gradual approach when implementing the guidance.
Guidance for the Directors of Banks

(International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC, 2013-08-09) Westlake, Richard

The need for sound governance of banks worldwide has never been stronger. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, spectacular bank failures, whether caused by greed, incompetence, or indifference, are still occurring. This guide is intended mainly for three groups of readers: (i) new directors with experience in banking; (ii) directors who understand governance, but have no experience in banking; and (iii) new directors who have no experience of either banking or being a director. It is mainly an introduction for the directors of non-complex banks, whose main business is to take deposits and provide loans, and is not designed for the directors of large, complex banks or investment banks operating in global capital markets and dealing with complex corporate structures. We hope, however, that even relatively experienced directors of banks, and those who work with them, may find the book a useful refresher. Main topics discussed in the Guidance are: 1) where banks fit in the corporate governance framework; 2) the unique role of banks governing risk; 3) Board structures and directors' duties; and 4) effective Board decision making. Since the late Jonathan Charkham CBE wrote the first edition of this Guidance book in 2003, the world has changed dramatically. During the crisis, many household-name banks merged or disappeared. Now there is stronger supervision of banks and greater expectations of Boards, so directors need to be knowledgeable about and engaged with their bank to provide direction and hold bank management to account.