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Publication
Breaking Out of Fragility: A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-09-30)Iraq is at a crossroads. Almost two decades after the 2003 war, the country remains caught in a fragility trap, facing increasing political instability, growing social unrest, and a deepening state-citizen divide. Amid a multitude of crises—including an oil price shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent instability and protests—coupled with poor economic policies, a lack of reforms, and an inability to tackle corruption, Iraq is having its worst annual economic growth performance in 2020 since the fall of the Saddam regime. But with every crisis comes an opportunity to reform. Iraq can embark on a long but much-needed path toward structural transformation, one that could leave its economy less dependent on oil and more driven by private sector activity. Such a path can no longer be avoided, as has been illustrated by the widespread protests since October 2019. This report highlights what Iraq can do to sustain future growth; it also shows why Iraq has not yet managed to achieve high levels of diversified growth alongside peace, stability, and a better standard of living for its people. Iraq’s high levels of fragility and conflict--reinforced by high oil dependency--hinder the country’s prospects for economic reform and growth. Despite Iraq’s existing sociopolitical and economic environment, three encouraging messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in Iraq. Iraq’s per capita GDP was about one-fifth lower in 2018 than it would have been if not for the conflict beginning in 2014. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, Iraq has latent export potential for a variety of goods that, if tapped, could diversify the country’s economy, raise living standards, and boost economic resilience. Third, Iraqi agriculture could be revived to serve as a pillar of a more diversified and private sector–led economy. -
Publication
The Unfulfilled Promise of Oil and Growth : Poverty, Inclusion and Welfare in Iraq 2007-2012
(Washington, DC, 2014-12-01)Iraq appears to have firmly entered the ranks of upper middle-income countries in 2012, having experienced strong economic growth following the establishment of a civilian elected government in 2005-06. In 2012 the years of growth culminated in a per capita GDP of 2472 constant 2005 US$. This three-volume poverty and inclusion assessment provides the first in-depth analysis of Iraq's economic and social development during the period of 2007 to 2012. Volume 1 is an overview of the economic climate in Iraq, providing brushstroke descriptions of its poverty reduction plans, labor markets, public health data, and education focal points. Volume 2 is a nine-chapter report on the years between 2007 and 2012, a period of relative stability in Iraq. 2007 marks the end of sectarian violence, which lasted until 2012, prior to the militancy and insurgency in the northern governorates of the summer of 2014. The country has been a nexus of conflict and fragility since the early 1980s, and has experienced multiple types of conflict: insurgency, international war, sectarian strife, persistent terrorism, regional fragmentation, and spillovers from conflict in other countries. What should have been a promising endowment of natural resources of land, oil and gas, as well of human capital, did not provide the foundation for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The realization of potential was confounded by war and repression. A key priority of the Government of Iraq since 2005-06 has been to fill the huge knowledge gap in terms of a deeper understanding of the state of the economy and of a range of socioeconomic indicators of welfare with the objective of building a strong evidence base for effective policy making. The rich analyses presented in this report go well beyond counting the poor. It gives an incisive understanding of the multi-layered development challenges faced by the nation, which serves as a testament to the commitment of the Government of Iraq, the staff of the Central Statistics Office, and the Kurdistan Region Statistics Office. It will form the basis for a new strategy for Iraq's development and ensure broad-based welfare improvements for the population. Volume 3 consists of nine annexes and nine references in the forms of tables, boxes, and equations used in the methodologies. -
Publication
Iraq Workforce Development : SABER Country Report 2013
(Washington, DC, 2013)There is a widespread feeling of urgency in Iraq, across the public and private sectors, to improve workforce development (WfD) and the links between education and the work place. However, the country has no clear strategy or plan of action for WfD. The existing WfD structures in Iraq do not have the authority or clear agendas to move forward. In addition, the necessary linkages across technical and vocational education and training (TVET) programs and other types of education or the work place are limited. As a result, Iraq was rated at a Latent stage for all three dimensions on the Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) WfD assessment: Strategic Framework, System Oversight, and Service Delivery. -
Publication
Republic of Iraq: Financial Sector Review
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011)This report was initiated at the request of the Iraqi government to get a better understanding of the overall financial sector in Iraq. The main objective of the report was to develop a comprehensive assessment of the financial sector. This report takes a first look at the overall financial system of Iraq with a forward looking approach. Key findings of the report are: 1) Iraq's financial sector is dominated by the banking system, with most assets held by state-owned banks; 2) many private banks are in the process of developing modern banking practices, but still need further strengthening and consolidation; 3) other financial markets are concentrated at the Iraqi stock exchange but capitalization is low, and few instruments are traded; 3) the insurance sector is small, dominated by state- owned enterprises, and is not supervised; 4) weak financial infrastructure is a clear impediment to access to finance; and 5) Small Medium Enterprises (SME) and microfinance is not well developed.