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Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20) World Bank

The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery.
An Exposition of the New Strategy, 'Promoting Peace and Stability in the Middle East and North Africa'

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01) Devarajan, Shantayanan

The Middle East and North Africa region is in turmoil. Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen are in civil war, causing untold damage to human lives and physical infrastructure. Fifteen million people have fled their homes, many to fragile or economically strapped countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Djibouti and Tunisia, giving rise to the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. Palestinians are reeling from deadly attacks and blockades. With recruits from all over the world, radicalized terrorist groups and sectarian factions like Daesh are spreading violence around the globe, threatening some governments' ability to perform basic functions. Countries undergoing political transitions, such as Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan, face periodic attacks and political unrest, leading them to address security concerns over inclusive growth. Even relatively peaceful oil exporters, such as Algeria, Iran and the GCC, are grappling with youth unemployment and poor-quality public services, the same problems that contributed to the Arab Spring, alongside low oil prices. Finally, the author will develop and monitor input indicators that are consistent with the theory of change associated with the new strategy. We will have indicators that show whether our interventions are helping to renew the social contract (the use of citizen engagement in projects is an example). Household surveys can tell us whether the welfare of refugees and host communities is improving. Preparedness indicators can be used to inform progress on the recovery and reconstruction pillar. And standard indicators such as the share of electricity production that is traded will be used for the regional integration pillar.
Principles for Public Credit Guarantee Schemes for SMEs

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-12) World Bank Group

Access to finance, particularly credit, is widely recognized as problematic for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), hampering their growth and development. To address this challenge, many governments around the world intervene in SME credit markets through credit guarantee schemes (CGSs). A CGS offers risk mitigation to lenders by taking a share of the lenders’ losses on SME loans in case of default. CGSs can contribute to expand access to finance for SMEs. Yet they may bring limited value added and prove costly if they are not designed and implemented well. There have been efforts in recent years to identify good practices for CGSs, but the international community still lacks a common set of principles or standards that can help governments establish, operate, and evaluate CGSs for SMEs. The Principles for Public Credit Guarantees for SMEs are filling this gap. The Principles provide a generally accepted set of good practices, which can serve as a global reference for the design, execution, and evaluation of public CGSs around the world. The Principles propose appropriate governance and risk management arrangements, as well as operational conduct rules for CGSs, which can lead to improved outreach and additionality along with financial sustainability. Developed through extensive consultations with stakeholders, the Principles draw from both the literature on good practices for CGSs and sound practices implemented by a number of successful CGSs around the world.
Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee

(Washington, DC, 2015-09-30) World Bank

Palestinians are getting poorer on average for the third year in a row. As evidenced in previous World Bank reports, the competitiveness of the Palestinian economy has been progressively eroding since the signing of the Oslo accords, in particular its industry and agriculture. Even though donor aid had increased government-funded services and fueled consumption-driven growth during 2007 to 2011, this growth model has proved unsustainable. Donor support has significantly declined in recent years and, in any case, aid cannot sustainably make up for inadequate private investment. Thus, growth has started to slow since 2012 and the Palestinian economy contracted in 2014 following the Gaza war. In early 2015, GDP was still lower than it was a year ago. Due to population growth, real GDP per capita has been shrinking since 2013. Unemployment remains high, particularly amongst Gaza’s youth where it exceeds 60 percent, and 25 percent of Palestinians currently live in poverty. Against the backdrop of weak economic growth, reduced donor aid, and temporary suspension of revenue payments by the Government of Israel (GoI), the Palestinian Authority’s reform efforts have not been able to prevent another year with a financing gap. The persistence of this situation could potentially lead to political and social unrest. In short, the status quo is not sustainable and downside risks of further conflict and social unrest are high.
Financial Inclusion in Tunisia: Low-Income Households and Micro-Enterprises Snapshot

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09) Chehade, Nadine

This snapshot provides an overview of financial inclusion trends and challenges in Tunisia. It follows the recent expiration of the Coordinated Vision for the Development of Microfinance in Tunisia 2011-2014, national strategy published in 2011.
Fiscal Crisis, Economic Prospects: The Imperative for Economic Cohesion in the Palestinian Territories, Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09-23) World Bank

Economic growth in West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) slowed in the first quarter (Q1) of 2012. The real growth rate is estimated to have reached 5.6 percent, more than three percentage points lower than the Q1 2011 growth figure and almost one percent lower than the growth forecast contained in the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) budget. This decline is attributed to a major slowdown in Gaza, where real growth decreased from 21.3 percent to 6 percent on a year-on-year basis. The slowdown in Gaza during Q1 of 2012 was mainly attributed to a major decline in the agriculture and fishing sector, which offset much of the growth witnessed in other sectors. This sector shrank by 43 percent in Q1 2012 due to frequent power outages resulting from the lack of fuel in Gaza. Nevertheless, other sectors in Gaza expanded and the highest growth levels were witnessed in the construction, and hotels and restaurants sectors. In the West Bank, growth in Q1 2012 was broadly unchanged from its 2011 level. Most of the growth was from an expansion of services, which contributed around 2.2 percentage points of the 5.4 percent total growth in Q1 2012. The recent slowdown in economic growth is also reflected in higher unemployment levels. Overall unemployment in WB&G was 20.9 percent in the second quarter of 2012 compared to 18.7 percent during the same period in 2011. A serious concern in WB&G is the high level of youth unemployment that is accompanied by low youth participation in the labor force.
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Development Policy Review : Improving Institutions, Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms for Greater Growth Resilience and Sustained Job Creation (Vol. 1 of 2)

(Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank

Jordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.
Sudan: Rapid Assessment of the Public Investment Portfolio in the Fiscal Adjustment Context

(Washington, DC, 2011-10) World Bank

Public investment to facilitate growth and poverty reduction is paramount to Sudan's development challenge. The acute need for rebuilding the country's deteriorated infrastructure and service delivery framework underscores the importance of more active and effective public investment. The disproportional composition of the spending adjustment raises particular concern on pro-poor and public investment spending during the subsequent fiscal adjustment period expected to follow. Under the growing fiscal decentralization trend, the state governments have taken up the primary responsibility to provide basic public service deliveries to the poor; in such a decentralized constellation, reduced support from the federal budget could seriously jeopardize the provision of basic services at the state and locality level. In particular, public investment expenditure now has to effectively address service delivery needs and the broader development agenda, while at the same time the overall resource envelope is declining. This note is the result of a rapid assessment of Sudan's public investment portfolio in the context of the anticipated fiscal adjustment. It is not a full-fledged review on public investment projects or the public investment management system. The main scope of the assessment is: to quickly identify available information on public investment projects from existing sources; to provide an contextual overview of the overall public investment portfolio in light of the imminent needs for rationalizing the public investment portfolio; and to outline conceptual guidelines for public investment adjustments and to propose longer-term tasks to improve public investment management.
Republic of Iraq: Financial Sector Review

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011) Nasr, Sahar

This report was initiated at the request of the Iraqi government to get a better understanding of the overall financial sector in Iraq. The main objective of the report was to develop a comprehensive assessment of the financial sector. This report takes a first look at the overall financial system of Iraq with a forward looking approach. Key findings of the report are: 1) Iraq's financial sector is dominated by the banking system, with most assets held by state-owned banks; 2) many private banks are in the process of developing modern banking practices, but still need further strengthening and consolidation; 3) other financial markets are concentrated at the Iraqi stock exchange but capitalization is low, and few instruments are traded; 3) the insurance sector is small, dominated by state- owned enterprises, and is not supervised; 4) weak financial infrastructure is a clear impediment to access to finance; and 5) Small Medium Enterprises (SME) and microfinance is not well developed.
The World Bank Annual Report 2011: Year in Review

(Washington, DC, 2011) World Bank

Executive Directors continued to play an important role as the World Bank faced many challenges in a global post crisis economy. The Board considered a number of key documents in preparation for the committee on development effectiveness meetings. These included the World Development Report 2011, which focuses on conflict, security, and development, and responding to global food price volatility and its impact on food security, which examines the Bank's responses to food price increases and climate change risks. The Board approved more than $42 billion in financial assistance in fiscal 2011, comprising about $26 billion in International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) lending and $16 billion in International Development Association (IDA) support. During fiscal 2011 the Bank Group committed $57.3 billion in loans, grants, equity investments, and guarantees to its members and to private businesses. IBRD commitments totaled $26.7 billion compared with $44.2billion in 2010, but still above pre crisis levels. The World Bank Group continues to operate under a real flat budget, for the seventh consecutive year.