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Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee

(Washington, DC, 2015-09-30) World Bank

Palestinians are getting poorer on average for the third year in a row. As evidenced in previous World Bank reports, the competitiveness of the Palestinian economy has been progressively eroding since the signing of the Oslo accords, in particular its industry and agriculture. Even though donor aid had increased government-funded services and fueled consumption-driven growth during 2007 to 2011, this growth model has proved unsustainable. Donor support has significantly declined in recent years and, in any case, aid cannot sustainably make up for inadequate private investment. Thus, growth has started to slow since 2012 and the Palestinian economy contracted in 2014 following the Gaza war. In early 2015, GDP was still lower than it was a year ago. Due to population growth, real GDP per capita has been shrinking since 2013. Unemployment remains high, particularly amongst Gaza’s youth where it exceeds 60 percent, and 25 percent of Palestinians currently live in poverty. Against the backdrop of weak economic growth, reduced donor aid, and temporary suspension of revenue payments by the Government of Israel (GoI), the Palestinian Authority’s reform efforts have not been able to prevent another year with a financing gap. The persistence of this situation could potentially lead to political and social unrest. In short, the status quo is not sustainable and downside risks of further conflict and social unrest are high.
Mauritania : Counting on Natural Wealth for a Sustainable Future

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Mele, Gianluca

A data set of key macro-sustainability indicators, constructed after several fact-finding missions, and World Bank methodologies on estimating wealth accounting are used to study Mauritania's wealth, which is estimated to be between USD50 and USD60 billion. The country's produced wealth represents roughly 12 percent of total wealth, much less than in lower-middle-income countries; by contrast, natural wealth represents approximately 45 percent of the total figure. Renewable resources account for slightly less than two-thirds of natural wealth, with fisheries alone equaling about one-fourth of natural wealth. This is good news for Mauritania, as sound management of these resources may ensure a constant flow of resources in the future and therefore -- with adequate policies -- the achievement of the same or higher levels of welfare for future generations. On the negative side, however, the ratio of net adjusted savings over gross national income is estimated to have been negative since 2006, meaning that the wealth of the country is being depleted. Mauritania has recently joined the ranks of lower-middle-income countries, largely thanks to its considerable natural resources endowment. Over time the mining sector's contribution to gross domestic product has grown significantly and important discoveries continue to be made. The overarching objective of this wealth accounting exercise is thus to support Mauritania to measure its assets better and achieve a more complete picture of the prospects for future income, with a view to better orienting public policies toward sustainable growth and shared prosperity. The paper concludes with several indicative policy recommendations.
West Bank and Gaza Investment Climate Assessment : Fragmentation and Uncertainty

(Washington, DC, 2014-01) World Bank Group

This Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) seeks to evaluate the conditions under which the Palestinian private sector currently operates in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza strip. This assessment is both an update and expansion on a similar assessment undertaken by the World Bank in 2006. As such, it provides both a snapshot of the investment climate in 2013, as well as a longitudinal view of what has changed in the intervening seven years and, just as importantly, what has not. Where relevant, it also compares indicators of the Palestinian investment climate with those of other countries in the region and beyond. The objective of this assessment is to provide the Palestinian business community, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the international development community with an empirical analysis of the investment climate under which Palestinian businesses operate. The report describes the key constraints on business and investment and identifies reform priorities for those aspects of the investment climate and constraints which are within the PA's control, as well as some policy recommendations for areas outside of the PA's control, but within the domain of development partner assistance agendas and/or Israeli policies. This analysis is intended to inform Palestinian policy-maker actions to improve the business environment. It can also help inform the actions of other concerned parties, including the international development community, regional actors, and the Government of Israel regarding policies that affect Palestinian economic growth and sustainability.
2012 Information and Communications for Development : Maximizing Mobile

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-08-15) World Bank

With some 6 billion mobile subscriptions in use worldwide, around three-quarters of the world's inhabitants now have access to a mobile phone. Mobiles are arguably the most ubiquitous modern technology: in some developing countries, more people have access to a mobile phone than to a bank account, electricity, or even clean water. Mobile communications now offer major opportunities to advance human development from providing basic access to education or health information to making cash payments to stimulating citizen involvement in democratic processes. The developing world is 'more mobile' than the developed world. In the developed world, mobile communications have added value to legacy communication systems and have supplemented and expanded existing information flows. However, the developing world is following a different, 'mobile first' development trajectory. Many mobile innovations such as multi-SIM card phones, low-value recharges, and mobile payments have originated in poorer countries and are spreading from there. New mobile applications that are designed locally and rooted in the realities of the developing world will be much better suited to addressing development challenges than applications transplanted from elsewhere. In particular, locally developed applications can address developing-country concerns such as digital literacy and affordability. This 2012 edition of the World Bank's information and communications for development report analyzes the growth and evolution of mobile telephony, and the rise of data-based services delivered to handheld devices, including apps. The report explores the consequences for development of the emerging 'app economy.' It summarizes current thinking and seeks to inform the debate on the use of mobile phones for development. This report looks at key ecosystem-based applications in agriculture, health, financial services, employment, and government, with chapters devoted to each.
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Development Policy Review : Improving Institutions, Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms for Greater Growth Resilience and Sustained Job Creation (Vol. 2 of 2)

(Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank

Jordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.
From Political to Economic Awakening in the Arab World : The Path of Economic Integration - Deauville Partnership Report on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Volume 1. Overview Report

(Washington, DC, 2012-05) World Bank

The forces unleashed by the Arab political awakening have the power to be transformational. One critical parameter of success will be whether the Arab political awakening is accompanied by a concurrent economic awakening. Economic integration through increased trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one key means available in the short to medium term to policy makers to put the Partnership countries on a higher path of sustainable economic growth and in a position to decisively tackle the problem of unemployment, especially youth unemployment. To be sure, skepticism abounds in the region over the merits of trade and FDI and the integrity of the private sector in light of "crony capitalism," where the benefits of past policies are perceived to have accrued only to a well-connected few. Leadership is needed in both Partnership countries and Deauville partners to provide a credible long-term vision and explain the mutual benefits of economic integration. One such powerful vision could be the pursuit of a partnership aimed at gradually promoting four key freedoms in the Mediterranean and beyond: the free movement of goods, services, capital, and eventually persons. The implementation of far-reaching domestic reforms in Partnership countries will be critical to effectively reap the growth and employment opportunities offered by greater economic integration and regulatory convergence with the most advanced economies. To further enhance trade and FDI and to achieve the vision of an Arab world more integrated into global markets, the trade and commerce pillar of the Deauville Partnership could therefore focus on four overarching priority areas of reforms and support: (a) improve market access opportunities and market regulations; (b) foster competitiveness, diversification, and employment; (c) facilitate trade and mobilize trade finance and diaspora resources; and (d) promote the inclusiveness, equity, and sustainability of the structural transformation brought about by the process of integration.
Global Investment Promotion Best Practices 2012

(Washington, DC, 2012-04) World Bank Group

Global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) declined severely during the recent economic and financial crisis. As the crisis eased, recovery in world economies spurred a resurgence of FDI, and that in turn reignited competition for investments among host countries. Especially in emerging markets, governments long have prized FDI as a source of much-needed capital and jobs. But in the 21st century, governments value FDI as much or more as a source of technology and know-how. Policymakers have witnessed how knowledge brought by foreign investors can spill over to local firms, bolster skills in the local workforce, and thus increase the overall competitiveness of their economies. To foster development of intellectual capital as well as businesses and jobs, governments increasingly recognize the importance of cultivating FDI. Providing business and investment climate information is a crucial component of IPI activities in all economies. But IPIs can gain particular advantage in those settings where investors find it most difficult to obtain reliable information and meet bureaucratic requirements. Research shows, for example, that investment promotion is more effective in economies where English is not an official language, and in economies that are more culturally distant from the investors corporate homes. Investment promotion also has more impact in countries with less effective governments and in economies that erect more barriers to launching a business (such as more time to obtain a construction permit). In this 2012 edition, GIPB focuses specifically on information provision in two sectors, tourism and agribusiness. This focus should be of particular use to economies that seek or are considering seeking FDI in those sectors.
Iraq Investment Climate Assessment 2012

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012) World Bank

Despite decades of war and instability, Iraq's abundant natural resources, strategic geographic location and cultural history endow Iraq with tremendous potential for growth and diverse economic development. Driven by windfall oil revenues in recent years, the Government of Iraq has invested heavily in rebuilding the infrastructure of the country, and its abundant oil reserves ensure that progress can continue steadily. This report was initiated at the request of the Iraqi government to assess the local investment climate and identify those high priority factors which most significantly impede private sector development in Iraq, in an effort to prioritize the recommended investments, institutional and regulatory reforms which would most significantly contribute to sustainable private sector growth and increased productivity.
World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development

(World Bank, 2011) World Bank

The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2010: Recovering from the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-04-01) Ianchovichina, Elena ; Mottaghi, Lili ; Carey, Kevin ; Spivak, Nadia ; Farazi, Subika ; Silwal, Ani

This edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economic update concerns the region recovering from the financial crisis along with the global economy. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 4.4 percent region-wide, driven by domestic absorption as well as a positive contribution from external demand. The recovery from the crisis differs by country depending on initial conditions and the intensity of the impact via the three principal channels through which the global financial crisis affected MENA economies-the financial sector, the price of oil, and the balance of payments, reflecting the impact on trade, remittances and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are leading the regional recovery as oil prices have rebounded and the GCC financial sector is stabilizing. Developing oil exporters felt the impact of the crisis, and now the recovery, largely through the oil price channel, due to the limited integration of their banking sectors into global financial markets and the importance of oil in their exports. The oil importers were affected by the crisis through the secondary effects on trade, remittances, and FDI flows, so their recovery will depend crucially on the recovery in key markets, especially the EU and the GCC countries. High unemployment has been a problem in MENA for years, and the crisis has dimmed prospects for improvements in the near term. Ample oil and gas resources, a youthful and growing workforce, and a growing momentum to look for ways to diversify their economies imply that the growth potential of the region is high, but MENA countries continue to face formidable longer term challenges. Ensuring access to finance without compromising financial stability will be a major challenge in MENA, although issues related to weak regulatory systems, corporate governance and overdependence on the banking system also loom large. Key problems of the business environment in MENA include policy and regulatory uncertainty and discretion in implementing reforms which prevent a level playing field for all firms and encourage the pursuit of privileged access. These problems, coupled with barriers to entry and exit, have created an environment of stagnation. Addressing these issues will require applying rules and regulations consistently and without discrimination among firms and introducing reforms that promote business dynamism, private investment, and innovation.