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Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2022 - Public Investment: Maximizing the Development Impact

(Washington, DC, 2023) World Bank

Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s growth exceeded expectations during the first half of 2022. Propelled by a strong rebound in international tourism, the full reopening of the economy, and improving exports, real GDP accelerated to 2.7 percent. However, the rebound in economic activity was only modestly reflected on labor market indicators with unemployment rates declining only gradually. Inflation has reached its highest level since 2018 but remains contained compared to regional peers, due to temporary fuel subsidies and a number of other price control measures introduced in 2022. Yet, the untargeted subsidy support came at a fiscal cost as fiscal consolidation adjustments have slowed down despite good tax performance. On the external front, elevated global commodity prices led to a significant rise in Jordan’s import bill, outpacing the effect of the increased merchandise exports and tourism. Moreover, capital and financial inflows did not keep up with the widening current account deficit, resulting in a widening of the balance of payment deficit and a drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, due to its substantial reserve buffers, the Central Bank’s gross foreign reserves remained at an adequate level, while Jordan continues to retain investors’ confidence and access to foreign financial markets. Jordan’s economic recovery in 2022 is expected to be driven by a full rebound of the services sector, helped by the full reopening of the economy and a strong rebound in tourism. However, highly volatile global fuel and food prices are impacting both domestic consumption and the trade balance. Risks surrounding Jordan’s outlook include a looming global economic downturn, prolongation of the global food and energy crisis, and the impact of higher borrowing costs and widening losses from state-owned water and electricity sectors on debt dynamics. The Special Focus highlights the role of public investment as a driver of growth, with a particular focus on its recent trends, as well as its efficiency and effectiveness. This is particularly relevant given Jordan’s constrained fiscal envelope. Public investment spending has been suffering from a steady decline during the past two decades to meet the fiscal consolidation targets, consistent under-execution, large dependency on external aid and lack of budget for operation and maintenance cost. Its efficiency can be maximized by having in place financially realistic long-term strategic planning, transparent project selection and an adoption of a medium-term perspective. Purposefully integrating climate concerns in public investments would also advance the country’s achievement of its climate targets.
Egypt Economic Monitor, December 2022: Strengthening Resilience through Fiscal and Education Sector Reforms

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank

Amidst repercussions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lingering supply chain disruptions, and tightening global financial conditions, Egypt is experiencing a spike in inflation and has suffered abrupt large-scale portfolio outflows; adding pressures to the country’s already stretched public finances and external accounts. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has undertaken exchange rate and monetary policy adjustments since March 2022 by allowing the exchange rate to depreciate and by raising key policy rates, in order to contain the widening trade deficit, capital reversal and the ensuing drop in foreign exchange buffers. In tandem, the government announced social mitigation packages. The authorities’ efforts to restore macroeconomic stability, rebuild reserves, and push ahead with structural reforms is supported by the 46-month International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, along with other multilateral and bilateral financing and investments. This report provides an update on the recent economic developments and outlook of the Egyptian economy, while embedding the analysis in long-standing challenges. It also features a Special Focus on Education Sector reforms that draws on the World Bank Egypt Public Expenditure Review for Human Development Sectors. A key message is that education spending, its efficiency, and the overall learning outcomes require improvements in order to meet the needs for robust human development, poverty reduction, improved equity, and long-term growth. According to the report, there are three key (inter-connected) priorities going forward: (1) establishing sustained macroeconomic stability and enhancing the competitiveness of Egyptian economy to ensure resilient sources of foreign income activities (exports and FDI). This requires continuing to push ahead with business environment reforms; (2) streamlining budgetary and off-budget expenditures and increasing revenues to create the fiscal space required to allocate more resources for priority areas (such as the education sector); and (3) unleashing the private sector’s potential in higher value-added and export-oriented activities to create jobs and improve living standards.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022: Time for an Equitable Banking Resolution

(Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank

The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.
A New State of Mind: Greater Transparency and Accountability in the Middle East and North Africa

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-05) Belhaj, Ferid ; Gatti, Roberta ; Lederman, Daniel ; Sergenti, Ernest John ; Assem, Hoda ; Lotfi, Rana ; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam

The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises—first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine—have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk—from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region’s development failings—including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water.
Morocco Country Climate and Development Report

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank Group

Climate change poses a serious threat to Morocco’s economic growth and human potential but with the right investments and policies in place, a more sustainable future is possible. A new World Bank diagnostic tool, The Country Climate and Development Report explores the linkages between climate and development and identifies priority actions to build resilience and reduce carbon emissions, while supporting economic growth and reducing poverty. The Morocco climate report identifies three priority areas – tackling water scarcity and droughts; enhancing resilience to floods; and decarbonizing the economy. The report also looks at the cross-cutting issues of financing, governance, and equity. The underlying message in the report is that if Morocco invests in climate action now and takes the appropriate policy measures, the benefits will be immense. Ambitious climate actions will help to revitalize rural areas, create new jobs and position the Kingdom as a green industrial hub, while also helping Morocco to reach its broader development goals. The report identifies key pathways to decarbonize the economy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and massively deploying solar and wind power. The report estimates that total investment needed to put Morocco firmly on a resilient and low carbon pathway by the 2050s would be around $78 billion in present dollar value. The good news is that these investments could be gradual and that with the appropriate policies in place, the private sector could shoulder much of the cost.
Tunisia - Systematic Country Diagnostic: Rebuilding Trust and Meeting Aspirations for a More Prosperous and Inclusive Tunisia

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-09-30) World Bank

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) comes at critical moment in Tunisia. Since the 2011 revolution and the promulgation of a new constitution in 2014, Tunisia has been navigating a difficult political transition. While there have been gains in poverty reduction, public trust in government has declined sharply, and the economy has stalled. The COVID-19 pandemic and more recently the effects of the war in Ukraine also exacerbated stresses on the economy, the public finances, and public trust in government. Partly as result of these trends, recent political events since July 25 2021 have marked a break with the 2014 constitutional model, and created great uncertainty regarding the future direction of Tunisia’s transition. At the time of writing, it is still uncertain what form Tunisia’s new political and constitutional model will take in coming years. The Tunisia SCD takes a ten-year view of trends in Tunisia since 2011, drawing comparisons with other comparable countries, and suggesting possible future pathways. The World Bank Group undertakes SCDs as a diagnostic exercise to identify key challenges and opportunities to accelerate progress towards rebuilding trust and meeting citizen aspirations, and ultimately to contribute to the World Bank Group’s twin goals of ending absolute poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. It is intended to become a reference point for consultations on priorities for World Bank Group country engagement. It is also intended as a contribution to the public debate about Tunisia’s path forward. This longer term perspective means that the Tunisia SCD does not place a heavy emphasis on recent events, but rather seeks to situate them in the broader context of trends in equitable growth, poverty reduction, and state capability.
Egypt Public Expenditure Review for the Human Development Sectors

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank Group

This Public Expenditure Review (PER) aims at informing government efforts to pursue its commitment to enhancing socioeconomic outcomes through more and better spending on human capital. To achieve this important objective, the Government of Egypt (GoE) aims at creating the fiscal space needed to increase growth-enhancing spending in a way that reflects positively on socioeconomic outcomes. This PER analyzes the adequacy, efficiency, and equity of public spending on the human development sectors. It examines options to create fiscal space by reducing inefficient and wasteful spending within this sector and increasing the impact of existing resources. From an equity perspective, the PER examines how public resources are distributed within the sector, and across income groups and/or geographical regions, and how system-wide reforms can reduce inequality in spending and outcomes. Drawing on a fiscal incidence analysis jointly carried out with the MOF, the distributional impact of potential fiscal measures and other policy changes is simulated to inform the reforms agenda. The first part of the review (Volume I) presents the macro-fiscal context and its constraints. It also presents an analysis of the social protection system in place to mitigate the effects of the challenging macroeconomic environment. The second part of the review (Volume II) focuses on the most difficult challenges facing the core human development sectors, namely health, education and higher education.
Libya Economic Monitor, Summer 2022

(Washington, DC, 2022-08) World Bank

Libya is struggling to cope with a trifecta of crises, including the civil conflict, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and most recently, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Notwithstanding the tempering of conflict intensity since 2021, the Libyan economy has been battered by the conflict. GDP per capita estimates in 2021 stood at about half of its value in 2010 before the start of the conflict. Since 2020, the population has been hit by multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The health system, already affected by a decade of conflict, has struggled to deliver the necessary access and quality of care amid a raging pandemic. While Libya has reported a marked decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths since March 2022, the vaccination rate remains low. In addition, food insecurity has worsened, precipitated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting shortages and price increases for staple foods in the domestic market.
Lebanon Public Finance Review: Ponzi Finance?

(Washington, DC, 2022-07) World Bank

The Public Finance Review (PFR) analyzes Lebanon’s public finances over a long horizon, to understand the roots of the fiscal profligacy and its eventual insolvency. To do so, the PFR links three critical elements in three Sections. Section I: Fiscal Policy in the Second Republic; Section II: Macro-Financial Restructuring; Section III: Public Service Non-Delivery. A fourth critical element is geopolitics, which is beyond the scope of the PFR. Taken together, these form critical determinants of the outcomes for any future socio-political-economic re-configuration.
Tunisia Economic Monitor, Summer 2022: Navigating the Crisis during Uncertain Times

(Washington, DC, 2022-07) World Bank

The war in Ukraine and rising commodity prices have exacerbated the vulnerabilities of the Tunisian economy in the first months of 2022. The impact of the war began to be felt as the trade deficit widened by 56 percent in the first six months of 2022 reaching 8.1 percent of GDP. Lower oil and gas production and increased demand for energy and agricultural products have exacerbated the vulnerability of the trade balance to the vagaries of international markets. With a challenging global environment, the economic recovery appears weaker than previously forecast.