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Breaking Out of Fragility: A Country Economic Memorandum for Diversification and Growth in Iraq

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-09-30) World Bank

Iraq is at a crossroads. Almost two decades after the 2003 war, the country remains caught in a fragility trap, facing increasing political instability, growing social unrest, and a deepening state-citizen divide. Amid a multitude of crises—including an oil price shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent instability and protests—coupled with poor economic policies, a lack of reforms, and an inability to tackle corruption, Iraq is having its worst annual economic growth performance in 2020 since the fall of the Saddam regime. But with every crisis comes an opportunity to reform. Iraq can embark on a long but much-needed path toward structural transformation, one that could leave its economy less dependent on oil and more driven by private sector activity. Such a path can no longer be avoided, as has been illustrated by the widespread protests since October 2019. This report highlights what Iraq can do to sustain future growth; it also shows why Iraq has not yet managed to achieve high levels of diversified growth alongside peace, stability, and a better standard of living for its people. Iraq’s high levels of fragility and conflict--reinforced by high oil dependency--hinder the country’s prospects for economic reform and growth. Despite Iraq’s existing sociopolitical and economic environment, three encouraging messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in Iraq. Iraq’s per capita GDP was about one-fifth lower in 2018 than it would have been if not for the conflict beginning in 2014. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, Iraq has latent export potential for a variety of goods that, if tapped, could diversify the country’s economy, raise living standards, and boost economic resilience. Third, Iraqi agriculture could be revived to serve as a pillar of a more diversified and private sector–led economy.
Iraq Workforce Development : SABER Country Report 2013

(Washington, DC, 2013) World Bank

There is a widespread feeling of urgency in Iraq, across the public and private sectors, to improve workforce development (WfD) and the links between education and the work place. However, the country has no clear strategy or plan of action for WfD. The existing WfD structures in Iraq do not have the authority or clear agendas to move forward. In addition, the necessary linkages across technical and vocational education and training (TVET) programs and other types of education or the work place are limited. As a result, Iraq was rated at a Latent stage for all three dimensions on the Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) WfD assessment: Strategic Framework, System Oversight, and Service Delivery.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, September 2011 : Investing for Growth and Jobs

(Washington, DC, 2011-09) World Bank ; Ianchovichina, Elena

The report highlights the important links between good governance on a level legal and regulatory playing field, and the ability of investment to stimulate growth. Investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been strong over the last two decades in comparison with Latin America and Eastern Europe. However, in the oil exporting countries, it has been primarily supported by large and expanding public investments. Oil importers, in contrast, have shown more strength in private investment, which has increased in recent years. A concern with reliance on public investment is that in economies with weak governance there is no evidence that public investment stimulates growth. In contrast, in countries with an adequate level of protection of property rights and legal institutions, public investment is strongly linked to growth. The report also makes a strong case for private investment in services and manufacturing as engines of job creation and income growth in the region.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, January 2011 : Sustaining the Recovery and Looking Beyond

(Washington, DC, 2011-01) World Bank ; Ianchovichina, Elena

The impact of the global financial and economic crisis on the Middle East and North Africa region was relatively mild. Lack of integration and a large public sector helped insulate the region to some extent, but now these and other factors are slowing down the speed of its economic recovery. The report examines the major factors threatening the recovery and those that obstruct long-term growth – especially non-oil export growth, which in net terms contributed little to regional growth during the past decade, with non-oil exports remaining below potential in many countries in the region. The report emphasizes several major areas in need of policy makers’ attention, including restrictive trade policies, particularly those affecting trade in services; governance issues linked to uneven application of rules and regulations; inefficient and inflexible labor markets and scarcity of skills, innovation and technological capabilities.
The World Bank in Iraq: Iraqi Ownership for Sustainability

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06) Hadad-Zervos, Faris

This paper examines the experiences of the World Bank Group in other countries, and explores its work in Iraq in light of its mandate and areas of impact. It outlines the objectives the Bank Group has sought to meet and the procedures used to adapt to the Iraqi context, while focusing on transparency, inclusiveness, and sustainability. While the Bank's current focus in Iraq is on reconstruction and essential services, the near term offers a chance to lay the groundwork for credible institutions of social inclusion, in addition to supporting sustainable reconstruction and reform. This paper looks at how Iraq, a country with ample natural and human capital, can look past the immediate needs of post-conflict reconstruction to an eventual return as a middle-income country that managed its own affairs and contributed assistance to other countries. Models for reconstruction are closely looked at as to how to move Iraq to country ownership. The paper also looks at how to adopt post conflict reconstruction experience and adapting it to Iraq. The final section of the paper deals with lessons of experience and lessons learned.