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Severity of the Crisis and its Transmission Channels
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-12) Calderon, Cesar; Didier, Tatiana
The current global crisis, although initially circumscribed to the US housing market, spread rapidly across markets and borders. It has affected almost all countries through different reinforcing channels: the contraction in international trade, capital flows, remittances, and international commodity prices. The main goal of this note is to empirically analyze the mechanisms through which the financial crisis of 2007-2009 propagated throughout the world by characterizing the main factors behind the fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates. The findings indicate that a greater decline in the growth rate was registered in countries with higher de facto trade openness, less resilient domestic financial markets, and, to a lesser extent, improved macroeconomic frameworks. To complement this evidence, we construct an aggregate index of the severity of the crisis that captures the real and financial consequences in each country of this unprecedented global financial shock.
Back to Global Imbalances?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-07) de la Torre, Augusto; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Servén, Luis
The 2008-2009 financial crisis has shaken the prevailing equilibrium of the global economy, with a collapse in capital flows and international trade. How will the post-crisis constellation of current account imbalances look? Will the world resume financing the United States (US), and continue sustaining large external imbalances there? Contrary to what many expected, some forces unleashed by the crisis have kept US assets attractive and the dollar strong, decreasing the need for an immediate reduction of global imbalances. Over the long run, however, real sector and financial sector forces are likely to impose a correction, perhaps involving a depreciation of the dollar and a major reallocation of international portfolios.
Patterns of Financing During Periods of High Risk Aversion : How Have Latin Firms Fared in this Crisis So Far?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-05) Didier, Tatiana
This note examines the extent to which firms in Latin America have been able to raise capital through debt and equity securities as well as syndicated loans, both abroad and domestically, since the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. The public and the private sectors alike lost access to foreign sources of financing during the height of the turbulence. Furthermore, two months after the Lehman Brothers' collapse, only government owned firms and governments themselves were able to re-enter international markets to some extent and raise capital. Thus, the evidence suggests an important role for government guarantees in attracting foreign investors in times of high risk aversion. In domestic and syndicated loan markets, there has been a marked decrease in the total amount raised, although they have remained a viable option for the private sector in Latin America. To the extent possible, non-government borrowers have been able to raise capital in these markets and have generally met their rollover needs. In contrast, the role of sovereign guarantees in attracting local investors seems to have been more important in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, where government entities have accounted for respectively 80 and 44 percent of all new issues in local markets, compared to less than 15 percent in LAC.
How Much Room Does Latin America and the Caribbean Have for Implementing Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-04) Calderón, Cesar; Fajnzylber, Pablo
Latin America's government debt has exhibited a clear downward trend since 2003. While this has been partly due to rapidly increasing commodity prices, more sustainable fiscal policies have also been a contributing factor. In effect, in a significant break with the past, cyclically adjusted government balances have raised (fallen) in response to increases (reductions) in debt levels. However, Latin governments have continued to under?save in good times and therefore fiscal policy has remained pro-cyclical, thus weakening the ability to protect the poor and maintain infrastructure investments during bad times. Financing and institutional constraints to more counter?cyclical fiscal policies still remain in most countries. They are lowest in Chile, followed by Brazil and Colombia, and highest in Ecuador and Venezuela. Looking forward, long?term sustainability considerations cannot be ignored as decisions are made regarding the size, composition and targeting of fiscal stimulus packages.
Will FDI be Resilient in this Crisis?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-01) Calderon, Cesar; Didier, Tatiana
Although foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have tended to remain resilient during previous crises, they may not behave in a similar fashion during the current crisis. Why? In past crises, the stability of FDI flows was significantly associated with an increase in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), reflecting 'fire-sale FDI'. In the present crisis, by contrast, M&A activity decreased significantly in the last quarter of 2008, and this trend may continue as long as the global crisis constrain the purchasing ability of foreign (acquiring) firms. These developments further illustrate that the nature of the current crisis differs considerably from previous ones, suggesting that certain key lessons from past crisis lessons might not apply in the current context.