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Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No.22, Fall 2022: Beyond the Crises(Washington, DC, 2022-10) World BankThe economies of the Western Balkans continue to face a turbulent external environment, placing households, firms, and governments under acute stress. Just as the post-COVID recovery of 2021 began to fade and the region returned to a normalized rate of economic growth, the Western Balkan region now faces a new combination of challenges. The war in Ukraine, and the resultant sharp increase and energy prices and slowdown in global growth, is weighing on economic performance in all six economies. Higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation to levels unseen for many years, eroding purchasing power and business confidence. Monetary tightening in advanced economies is pushing up financing costs and weakening external demand. Following a strong rebound in 2021, growth, although still robust, was on a decelerating path in the first half of 2022. In Q1 of 2022, the Western Balkan economies remained resilient overall, supported by sizable policy actions at the EU, euro area, and national levels. First-quarter growth was particularly strong in tourism-based economies and in Serbia. However, growth decelerated in Q2, as countries had to deal with the direct consequences of the war and is projected to continue decelerating in the second half of the year reflecting higher base levels of growth in Q3 and Q4 2021 and the stronger global headwinds.
Social Protection Situational Analysis : Bosnia and Herzegovina(Washington, DC, 2022) World BankBosnia and Herzegovina faces significant labor market challenges. While recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is struggling with persistent unemployment and a predicted rise in poverty. To further reduce the incidence of poverty, measures to create more job opportunities for all BiH citizens must be complemented by an effective social protection framework. This note presents a situational analysis of the social protection system in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It assesses the extent to which the social protection system fulfills its purpose; it also proposes policy priorities as well as areas for reform in the short, medium, and long term. The remainder of the note is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the country’s main poverty and labor market outcomes; section 3 provides a brief overview of the social protection system; section 4 looks at non-contributory cash transfers to support the poor, the vulnerable and people with disabilities; section 5 examines social care services; section 6 analyzes pensions; section 7 explores employment and active labor market programs; section 8 reviews the social protection response to the COVID-19 pandemic; and section 9 concludes by identifying knowledge gaps and policy priorities for reform.