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Publication Renewing with Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-29) World BankLatin America and the Caribbean suffered the largest death toll from Covid‐19 across developing regions and the sharpest decline in economic activity. With fewer school days and lower employment rates, with higher public debt and more firms under stress, the effects could be long‐lasting. The crisis also triggered large‐scale economic restructuring, with productivity higher in the expanding than in the contracting sectors. Accelerated digitization could instill dynamism in finance, trade and labor markets, but it may amplify inequality within and across the countries in the region. Technology could transform the energy sector as well. Latin America and the Caribbean has the cleanest and potentially cheapest electricity generation matrix of all developing regions. But its electricity is the most expensive, due mainly to inefficiencies. Distributed generation within countries and electricity trade across countries, could make energy greener and cheaper, provided that the pricing is right.Publication The Cost of Staying Healthy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-10-09) World BankLatin America and the Caribbean was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which arrived on the back of years of disappointing economic growth and limited social progress, and after a wave of social unrest. This report reviews the impacts of the crisis as well as the policy responses by countries, which often involved sizeable social transfers. It also presents growth forecasts, and quarterly growth estimates based on satellite imagery. With countries experiencing a diverse mix of health costs and economic costs, the report analyzes how the effectiveness of containment policies, and their impact on economic activity, differ between richer and poorer countries. It also assesses the cost of staying healthy in normal times, showing how it is affected by the structure of the domestic pharmaceutical sector and by the effectiveness of public procurement of medicines. As the region may have to live with the virus for a while, four policy directions are proposed for discussion.Publication Trade Integration as a Pathway to Development?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-10) World BankAfter a period of rapid economic growth associated with high commodity prices, the Latin America and Caribbean region has again entered a phase of lackluster performance. Overall this slowdown seems more self-inflicted than imported, and the outlook for the region is not encouraging either. A tepid export response constrains the prospect of growing through external demand whereas limited fiscal space leaves little room to stimulate domestic demand. The outlook could deteriorate further if the international environment became less conducive. This report explores whether inward-looking development strategies could be one of the reasons for slow growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. Trade barriers are higher than in other developing regions, and while numerous preferential trade agreements have been signed, many of them are intra-regional. The report shows that South-North agreements are associated with increases in economic complexity and faster economic growth than South-South agreements. It illustrates the point by assessing the economic, social, spatial and environmental impacts of two major: South-North agreements signed over the last year.Publication Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Dreams Meet Reality(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-04) Vuletin, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Puig, Jorge; Camarena, José Andrée; Galeano, Luciana; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, GuillermoAfter mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region.Publication From Known Unknowns to Black Swans: How to Manage Risk in Latin America and the Caribbean(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10-05) Vuletin, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Medina, Juan Pablo; Friedheim, Diego; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, GuillermoAfter a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region’s recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April, the growth slowdown in Brazil, and the continuing economic, social, and humanitarian collapse in Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk, develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice. The overall message of the report is that there are different types of risk: (i) those that follow standard probabilistic distributions that can be easily insured by the market; and (ii) those that exhibit fat-tails (i.e., non-negligible probabilities of extreme events) that are much harder to ensure by the market (like earthquakes). Finally, there are “black swans” that, by definition, are unpredictable events that cannot be insured and force countries to rely exclusively on ex-post aid and/or broad preventive measures. In other words, the fatter are the tails of a distribution, the less market insurance is available, and the more countries will have to rely on ex-post aid. Yet progress in managing risk continues to be made (the Catastrophe Bond for earthquakes in the Pacific Alliance, recently sponsored by the World Bank, being an outstanding example). This would have been unthinkable some time ago. New knowledge and insurance schemes, all supported by institutions such as the World Bank, will undoubtedly make LAC a safer region to live and prosper.Publication Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-17) Vuletin, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Friedheim, Diego; Morano, Luis; Camarena, José Andrée; Vuletin, GuillermoAfter a growth slowdown that lasted six years, the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has finally turned the corner and resumed growth at a modest rate of 1.1 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent expected in 2018. This reflects a more favorable external environment, particularly a recovery in commodity prices. In spite of the benign external environment, most LAC countries still face a fragile fiscal situation. While gradual fiscal adjustments have started in several countries, most countries are still running fiscal deficits and debt levels are high. Further fiscal consolidation is needed to preserve the substantial gains achieved by the region in recent times, in terms of lower inflation, less poverty and inequality, and inclusive growth. This Semiannual Report analyzes the complex decisions regarding fiscal adjustment policies.Publication Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The Monetary Policy Dilemma in Latin America and the Caribbean(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-11) Morano, Luis; Vegh, Carlos A.; Friedheim, Diego; Rojas, DiegoAfter a growth slowdown that lasted six years (including a contraction of 1.3 percent last year), the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region is finally expected to resume positive growth in 2017, with market analysts forecasting real GDP growth of 1.2 percent for 2017 and 2.3 percent for 2018. The recovery, particularly in South America, will be led by a strong rebound in Argentina, which is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, and Brazil, which is expected to resume positive growth as well, expanding by 0.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 in 2018, after contracting for two consecutive years. The usual external drivers of growth (particularly commodity prices, and growth in China and U.S.) are expected to remain relatively neutral, which points to the need for the region to reinforce its own sources of growth (e.g., structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and further international trade both within and outside the region). Unfortunately, the region finds itself in a weak fiscal situation with 28 out of 32 countries with an overall fiscal deficit, which implies that a gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation will be needed in the years ahead. The report's main focus (Chapter 2) is on the monetary policy dilemma faced by countries in LAC. When a typical commodity-exporter country in LAC is hit by, say, a negative terms of trade shock, real GDP falls, the currency depreciates, and inflation increases. The Central Bank faces the dilemma of (i) increasing policy rates to defend the currency/fight inflation, but at the cost of aggravating the recession or (ii) reducing the policy rate, thus stimulating output, but encouraging further depreciation and inflation. Traditionally, LAC countries have chosen the first option and have thus pursued procyclical monetary policy (i.e., increasing policy rates in bad times). Recently, however, many countries have been able to switch and become countercyclical (i.e., reducing policy rates in bad times), which enables them to prop up the economy in recessionary times (which is particularly important when lack of fiscal space precludes countercyclical fiscal policy).Publication Leaning Against the Wind: Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean in a Historical Perspective(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04) Bennett, Federico R.; Vegh, Carlos; Lederman, Daniel; Bennett, FedericoThis report by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank studies the region’s fiscal policies. After reviewing LAC’s growth performance, Chapter 1 provides an accounting of its financing needs during the 21st Century to understand how such a diverse region ended up with fiscal deficits across the board in 2016. Chapter 2 goes back to the 1960s and assesses the cyclical properties of fiscal policies. LAC, like most developing countries and in contrast with most developed economies, exhibited procyclical fiscal policies. Good news arrived in the 2000s: one in three economies became countercyclical, which helped improve credit ratings. Yet fiscal policy is complicated by our inability to know if current economic conditions are temporary or permanent. The report argues for a prudent stance that would err on the side of saving too much during upswings and perhaps borrowing too little during downturns.Publication The Big Switch in Latin America: Restoring Growth through Trade(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-05) Bennett, Federico R.; de la Torre, Augusto; Sasson, Martin; Lederman, Daniel; Ize, Alain; Bennett, FedericoThis report, produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank, examines LAC’s challenges as the global economy settles to an equilibrium with lower growth and lower commodity prices. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the world economy and how it affects LAC’s short and medium-term prospects. It argues that LAC suffered an external shock that shaped growth in recent years, and that the current global context is likely here to stay. Many LAC countries experienced significant depreciations which in principle should help adjust to the new equilibrium. The extent to which these depreciations facilitate a soft landing, however, depends on a number of factors. Chapter 2 explores the response of LAC’s trade to the recent depreciations and the role it could play in facilitating a recovery. It examines if there are early signs of an export recovery and whether the region’s increased dependence on commodity exports could hinder LAC’s recovery.Publication Indigenous Latin America in the Twenty-First Century: The First Decade(2015) World Bank GroupIn 2013 the World Bank set itself two ambitious goals: to end extreme poverty within a generation and to boost the prosperity of the bottom 40 percent of the population worldwide. In Latin America, the significance of both goals cannot be overstated. Indigenous people account for about 8 percent of the population, but represent 14 percent of the poor and over 17 percent of all Latin Americans living on less than United States (U.S.) $2.50 a day. Though the World Bank has chosen two general indicators for measuring progress toward its twin goals - the proportion of people living on less than U.S. $1.25 a day (purchasing power parity, 2005) and the growth of real capital income among the bottom 40 percent of the population - this report acknowledges that these indicators offer only a partial view of the obstacles preventing many indigenous peoples from achieving their chosen paths of development. The report notes that in Bolivia, Quechua women are 28 percent less likely to complete secondary school than a nonindigenous Bolivian woman, while Quechua men are 14 percent less likely to complete secondary school than non-indigenous men. This report seeks to contribute to these discussions by offering a brief, preliminary glance at the state of indigenous peoples in Latin America at the end of the first decade of the millennium. The authors believe that this is the first, necessary step to start working on a concerted and evidence-based agenda for subsequent work in critical areas of development such as education, health, and land rights. The report makes a critical analysis of the many inconsistencies present in much of the data, which in many cases are intrinsic to the difficulties of approaching indigenous issues with tools and data sets not originally intended to account for or include indigenous peoples’ voices and special needs. The report is divided into six sections. The first part, how many and where they are provides a demographic overview of indigenous people in the region, including population, geographic distribution, number of ethnic groups, and indigenous languages. The second section, mobility, migration, and urbanization describes a growing tendency among indigenous people to migrate to Latin American cities, which are becoming critical, though largely ignored, areas for political participation, and market articulation. The third section, development with identity briefly discusses the concept of poverty and reflects on how the use of predominantly Western indicators of well-being might condition the understanding of indigenous peoples’ situations and needs. The fourth and fifth sections broaden this argument by focusing on two particular instances of exclusion - the market and education.