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The Big Switch in Latin America: Restoring Growth through Trade
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-05) Bennett, Federico R.; de la Torre, Augusto; Sasson, Martin; Lederman, Daniel; Ize, Alain; Bennett, Federico
This report, produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank, examines LAC’s challenges as the global economy settles to an equilibrium with lower growth and lower commodity prices. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the world economy and how it affects LAC’s short and medium-term prospects. It argues that LAC suffered an external shock that shaped growth in recent years, and that the current global context is likely here to stay. Many LAC countries experienced significant depreciations which in principle should help adjust to the new equilibrium. The extent to which these depreciations facilitate a soft landing, however, depends on a number of factors. Chapter 2 explores the response of LAC’s trade to the recent depreciations and the role it could play in facilitating a recovery. It examines if there are early signs of an export recovery and whether the region’s increased dependence on commodity exports could hinder LAC’s recovery.
The Commodity Cycle in Latin America: Mirages and Dilemmas
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-04-12) Filippini, Federico; de la Torre, Augusto; Ize, Alain
This semiannual report – produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank – analyzes the economic and financial performance of LAC in light of the commodity price cycle. Chapter 1 covers short-term prospects, identifies the external factors affecting the economic slowdown, and focuses on the policy challenges faced by the region (South America in particular) in terms of the monetary, fiscal, external and social adjustments required to accommodate the new external environment. Chapter 2 reviews the region’s experience during the commodity cycle, links it with the external environment, and identifies low saving as a key determinant of both the macroeconomic performance during the cycle and the constrained policy space policy makers now face, in some countries more than others. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the policy choices the region now faces, both for the immediate future and for the longer run.
Jobs, Wages and the Latin American Slowdown: LAC Semiannual Report, October 2015
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015-10-05) de la Torre, Augusto; Ize, Alain; Beylis, Guillermo; Lederman, Daniel
Chapter 1 of the report covers the short-term prospects and provides an analysis of the external factors affecting the region's economic slowdown. The focus is on the adjustment challenges faced by those Latin American countries experiencing a major adverse terms of trade shock, which comes after an unprecedented (in magnitude and duration) period of terms of trade bonanza. Chapter 2 discusses the key topic of this semiannual report, that is, the implications of the slowdown for labor markets – on jobs and wages. We describe the broad labor market trends observed during the boom and contrast them with the patterns observed during the slowdown. We also describe the implications of the slowdown for inequality. A corollary of the observed labor market patterns during the slowdown is that some of the gains towards greater income equality achieved in the past decade or so may be reversed, at least in part, and that we may see a divergence between labor income inequality and household income inequality, whereby the latter may rise more than the former.
Latin America and the Rising South: Changing World, Changing Priorities
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015-05-19) de la Torre, Augusto; Didier, Tatiana; Ize, Alain; Lederman, Daniel; Schmukler, Sergio L.
The world economy is not what it used to be twenty years ago. For most of the 20th century, the world economy was characterized by developed (North) countries acting as 'center' to a 'periphery' of developing (South) countries. However, the recent rise of developing economies suggests the need to go beyond this North-South dichotomy. This tectonic re-configuration of the global landscape has brought about significant changes to countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. The time is ripe for an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and nature of LAC's external connections. This latest volume in the World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies series will focus on the implications of these trends for the economic development of LAC countries. In particular, trade, financial, macroeconomic, and sectoral shifts, as well as labor-market aspects will be systematically analyzed.
The Seven Sins of Flawed Public-Private Partnerships
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015) Rudolph, Heinz; de la Torre, Augusto
There are three stakeholders in a public-private partnership (PPP), (a) the government in office, (b) private firms (financial and non-financial) and investors (individual and institutional), and (c) final beneficiaries (taxpayers or users, present and future). The raison detre of PPPs is threefold: (i) to crowd in private firms and investors into projects that they will otherwise not undertake; (ii) to transfer to the private sector a significant part of the risks and costs that the government would otherwise fully absorb; and (iii) to ensure that the projects efficiency/quality is at least equal to that obtained if the government alone carried all costs and risks. Important (yet often ignored) implications follow. First, outsourcing (e.g., construction and maintenance) to the private sector does not by itself constitute a PPP if all risks and costs are, in one way or another, still borne by the government. Second, a PPP does not reduce total risk; it simply distributes it differently, involving private sector firms and investors. Third, the total costs borne by the final beneficiaries would be lower under a PPP (compared to a project whose costs and risks rest completely in the governments balance sheet) only if the PPP achieves efficiency gains; otherwise, what beneficiaries save in taxes they will pay in user fees, although, under a PPP, more of the costs would be assigned to direct beneficiaries/users, than to taxpayers at large. Fourth, that a PPP can provide (cash) budget relief may be a welcome corollary for the government in office but it is not a core objective of a PPP.
Inequality in a Lower Growth Latin America : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2014
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-10-10) de la Torre, Augusto; Beylis, Guillermo; Didier, Tatiana; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos; Schmukler, Sergio L.
As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. We document the significant slowdown in economic activity across the region, and explore the possibility of this being the ‘new normal’. In Chapter 2 we assess if the major social gains achieved during the ‘Golden Decade’, in particular the decline in inequality, will hold in this less supportive environment, and discuss alternative policy responses to preserve and further the equity gains in the region.
International Flows to Latin America--Rocking the Boat? LAC Semiannual Report, April 2014
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-04-24) de la Torre, Augusto; Beylis, Guillermo
As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. A special focus is placed this time around on the difference between exposure and vulnerability to exogenous shocks, with the latter assessed by adjusting exposure for a country’s shock absorption policy capacity. Given the global context and associated concerns with capital flow volatility, in Chapter 2 we take a look at the comparatively more stable components of international flows: FDI and Remittances. The cyclicality and volatility, as well as the joint determinants of FDI and Remittances are reviewed.
Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-10-09) Levy Yeyati, Eduardo; de la Torre, Augusto; Pienknagura, Samuel
This semiannual report examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region’s recent performance recede. In particular, we address the role of the exchange rate as a counter-cyclical policy tool to buffer adverse external shocks. As is customary in this series, Chapter 1 starts by providing an overview of the global economy and its implications for the short and medium-term prospects of the LAC region. It also examines the vulnerabilities of the region as tailwinds recede. Chapter 2 describes the new role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in LAC amid the important transformations observed in the region in the past decade on the macro-financial front. Finally, Chapter 3 gives a detailed look at exchange rate-smoothing policy interventions.
Latin America and the Caribbean as Tailwinds Recede : In Search of Higher Growth, LAC Semiannual Report, April 2013
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04-24) Levy Yeyati, Eduardo; de la Torre, Augusto; Pienknagura, Samuel
This semiannual report — a product of the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank — examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region’s recent performance recede. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the global economy and its implications for the short- and medium-term prospects of the LAC region. Chapter 2 provides a detailed analysis of the general patterns of domestic demand and supply observed in LAC over the last decade. In particular we document the steady increase in LAC’s domestic demand, especially its investment component, as a share of GDP over the 2000s. Moreover, we show that the rise of domestic demand has occurred in tandem with an expansion of the services sector. We assess what are the pitfalls and challenges for LAC’s growth pattern in a less benign global environment.
Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean : The Road Ahead
(World Bank, 2012) de la Torre, Augusto; Ize, Alain; Schmukler, Sergio L.
The financial systems of the Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) are at a crucial juncture. After a history of recurrent instability and crisis (a trademark of the region), they now seem well poised for rapid expansion. Since the last wave of financial crises that swept through the region in the late 1990s and early 2000s, financial systems in LAC have continued to gain in soundness, depth, and diversity. The size of banking systems has increased, albeit from a low base; local currency bond markets have greatly developed, both in volumes and in reach over the yield curve; stock markets have expanded; and derivative markets particularly currency derivatives have grown and multiplied. Institutional investors have become more important relative to banks, making the financial system more complex and diversified. Importantly, much progress has been made in financial inclusion, particularly through the expansion of payments, savings, and credit services to lower income households and microenterprises. As evidence of their new soundness and resiliency, financial systems in the region, except in some Caribbean countries, weathered the recent global financial crisis remarkably well. The progress in financial development in LAC no doubt reflects substantial improvements in the enabling environment, lower macroeconomic volatility, more independent and better-anchored currencies, increased financial liberalization, lower currency mismatches and foreign debt exposures, enhanced effectiveness of regulation and supervision, and notable improvements in the underlying market infrastructures (for example, trading, payments, custody, clearing, and settlement). This regional flagship report aims at providing such a stocktaking and forward looking assessment of the region's financial development. Rather than going into detail about sector-specific issues, the report focuses on the main architectural issues, overall perspectives, and interconnections. The value added of the report thus hinges on its holistic view of the development process, its broad coverage of the financial services industry (not just banking), its emphasis on benchmarking, its systemic perspective, and its explicit effort to incorporate the lessons from the recent global financial crisis.