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Publication
Long-Term Effects of PROSPERA on Welfare
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09)The long-term effects of Mexico's conditional cash transfer program, PROSPERA, on poor households are of great interest to policy makers and academics alike. This paper analyzes the long-term effects on the welfare of the original participant households and their offspring, about 20 years after the inception of the program. To complement other studies that look into the effects on schooling and health, the analysis focuses on a utilitarian definition of welfare and employs two empirical strategies. The first uses the 1997-2000 experiment as the cleanest, albeit limited, source of variation. The analysis finds that by 2017–18, the offspring of original beneficiary households are more likely to have formed their own households, to have migrated to different localities, and to have more durable assets and larger consumption expenditures than their control counterpart. The second strategy confirms and expands those findings using a difference-in-difference methodology based on the localities' rollout of the program and the age of the individuals, as a proxy of exposure. This second approach covers a much larger and representative sample, while also directly observing self-reported vulnerability in food consumption. The findings confirm the generally positive outlook in terms of durable assets and lower food vulnerability. Perhaps more interestingly and relevant for evaluating the success of the program is that it improved intergenerational mobility. Using the 1997-2000 experiment, the analysis finds that the young adults who benefited from the program improved with respect to their parents in education, assets holding, and income. They appear to be climbing the ladder of assets and income. -
Publication
Mexico Country Program Evaluation: An Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support to Mexico (2008–17)
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-27)This evaluation assesses the development effectiveness of the Bank Group’s country program in Mexico between 2008 and 2017 to inform the next CPF (FY19). The country program evaluation (CPE) will deepen knowledge on what has and has not worked and provide timely feedback on upcoming operational choices. The report will inform not only the Bank Group’s Mexico Country Management Unit and Mexican government but also a wider Bank Group audience, focused on middle-income countries (MICs) and other development practitioners. The evaluation examines the relevance and effectiveness of the Bank Group program in Mexico in its core areas, and also, as a methodological innovation, examines four overarching areas: (i) the extent to which the Bank Group contributed to identifying Mexico’s binding development constraints and to promoting sound policy choices; (ii) Bank Group contributions to Mexico’s results in reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity; (iii) the effectiveness of Bank Group use of lending, knowledge, and convening power services in shaping its role; and (iv) the extent to which Bank Group support to Mexico’s development innovations was beneficial to the Bank Group’s knowledge base and to other Bank Group member countries. Overall results reflect both program results in core areas and the answers to the overarching questions. The overview of this report is also available in Spanish. -
Publication
Shared Prosperity and Poverty Eradication in Latin America and the Caribbean
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015-04)Over the last decade Latin America and the Caribbean region has achieved important progress towards the World Bank Group's goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting income growth of the bottom 40 percent, propelled by remarkable economic growth and falling income inequality. Despite this impressive performance, social progress has not been uniform over this period, and certain countries, subregions and even socioeconomic groups participated less in the growth process. As of today, more than 75 million people still live in extreme poverty in the region (using $2.50/day/capita), half of them in Brazil and Mexico, and extreme poverty rates top 40 percent in Guatemala and reach nearly 60 percent in Haiti. This means that extreme poverty is still an important issue in both low- and middle-income countries in the region. As growth wanes and progress in reducing the still high levels of inequality in the region slows, it will be more important than ever for governments to focus policies on inclusive growth. The book includes an overview that highlights progress towards the goals of poverty eradication and shared prosperity between 2003 and 2012, unpacks recent gains at the household level using an income-based asset model, and examines some of the policy levers used to affect social outcomes in the region. It draws on 13 country studies, eight of which are featured in this volume: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The other case studies include: Bolivia, Chile, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Honduras, which will be included in the web version of the book. -
Publication
Doing Business in Mexico 2012
(Washington, DC, 2012)Mexico is a country open to international trade. It has already signed 11 free trade agreements with 43 economies. The advantages of Mexico as an open market are multiplied by the opportunities offered by its internal market of more than 112 million people. Mexico is the 11th largest economy worldwide in terms of gross domestic product and the second in Latin America. Since Mexico is not the only country promoting an attractive business environment, it is more important than ever that it continues to improve its competitiveness. A failure to do so will be a missed opportunity. Business regulations are especially relevant because they are implemented by the government and have an immediate impact. Mexico City represents Mexico in the annual Doing Business report, which compares 183 economies worldwide. However, entrepreneurs across Mexico face different regulations and local practices depending on the state and city where they do business. Therefore, regulatory improvements require the coordination of the 3 levels of government: federal, state and municipal, and the support of the legislative and judicial bodies, as well as key stakeholders, such as notaries. In 2005, in an effort to examine this regulatory diversity, the Office of the President requested a study that will go beyond Mexico City. This led to the creation of the Doing Business in Mexico subnational series. Doing Business in Mexico 2012 is the fourth report in this series. -
Publication
Low-Carbon Development for Mexico
(World Bank, 2010)One of the most compelling reasons for pursuing low-carbon development is that the potential impacts of climate change are predicted to be severe, for both industrial and developing countries, and that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can reduce the risk of the most catastrophic impacts. The challenge of reducing emissions is sobering: leading scientific models indicate that limiting the rise in global mean temperatures to less than two degree Celsius will require that global greenhouse gas emissions peak within the next 10-15 years and then fall by 2050 to levels about 50 percent lower than in 1990. Although many countries recognize the need to curtail carbon emissions, there is considerable uncertainty about how much this will cost in individual countries, what measures can be undertaken in both the short and longer term, and how cost-effective specific interventions are in reducing emissions. This study analyzes a range of energy efficiency options available in Mexico, including supply-side efficiency improvements in the electric power and oil and gas industries, and demand-side electricity efficiency measures addressing high-growth energy-consuming activities, such as air conditioning and refrigeration. It also evaluates a range of renewable energy options that make use of the country's vast wind, solar, biomass, hydro, and geothermal resources.