This report is produced two times per year, reporting on the recent economic developments and short term outlook of the Middle East and North Africa region. It is produced by the Chief Economist's office of the region (MNACE). These reports highlight a particular theme (such as fuel subsidies, service delivery, oil prices). This series was formerly known as MENA Economic Monitor, and before that, Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update, and combines with the series Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief.
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10)
Arezki, Rabah; Mottaghi, Lili; Barone, Andrea; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Harb, Amani Abou; Karasapan, Omer M.; Matsunaga, Hideki; Nguyen, Ha; de Soyres, Francois
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to rebound to an average of 2% in 2018, up from an average 1.4% in 2017. The modest rebound in growth is driven mostly by the recent rise in oil prices, which has benefitted the region’s oil exporters while putting pressure on the budgets of oil importers. The rebound also reflects the impact of modest reforms and stabilization efforts undertaken in some countries in the region. The report forecasts that regional growth will continue to improve modestly, to an average of 2.8% by the end of 2020 while there is the ongoing risk that instability in the region could worsen and dampen growth. Despite recovery, the slow pace of growth will not generate enough jobs for the region’s large youth population. New drivers of growth are needed to reach the level of job creation required. The report offers a roadmap for unlocking the enormous potential of the region’s large and well-educated youth population by embracing the new digital economy. Broader and bolder reforms will be needed to achieve this goal, along with critical investments in digital infrastructure. It will require the reorientation of education systems toward science and technology, the creation of modern telecommunications and payments systems, and a private-sector driven economy governed by regulations that encourage rather than stifle innovation.
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-17)
Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
Plagued by war, violence and low oil prices, economic activity in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained subdued between 2013 and 2015, but the situation is
expected to improve and growth to surge above 3 percent over the forecast period. Though still below
potential, the improvement in growth offers hope. We see signs of "green shoots" in some countries in the
region, therefore we have upgraded our short-term prospects for MENA from "cautiously pessimistic" to
"cautiously optimistic" over the forecast period. The prospects of peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya are one
of the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. But realizing that potential depends crucially on how
the post-conflict reconstruction is conducted. On the one hand, a well-managed process could help these
war-tom countries rebuild their shattered economies and re-integrate their people so that the region as a
whole, and possibly the rest of the world, benefits. On the other hand, a badly managed process can risk a
recurrence of conflict, continued stagnation and suffering, and perpetual fragility. The economics of postconflict
reconstruction, therefore, is critical to the future of MENA's economies.