This report is produced two times per year, reporting on the recent economic developments and short term outlook of the Middle East and North Africa region. It is produced by the Chief Economist's office of the region (MNACE). These reports highlight a particular theme (such as fuel subsidies, service delivery, oil prices). This series was formerly known as MENA Economic Monitor, and before that, Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update, and combines with the series Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief.
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-17)
Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
Plagued by war, violence and low oil prices, economic activity in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained subdued between 2013 and 2015, but the situation is
expected to improve and growth to surge above 3 percent over the forecast period. Though still below
potential, the improvement in growth offers hope. We see signs of "green shoots" in some countries in the
region, therefore we have upgraded our short-term prospects for MENA from "cautiously pessimistic" to
"cautiously optimistic" over the forecast period. The prospects of peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya are one
of the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. But realizing that potential depends crucially on how
the post-conflict reconstruction is conducted. On the one hand, a well-managed process could help these
war-tom countries rebuild their shattered economies and re-integrate their people so that the region as a
whole, and possibly the rest of the world, benefits. On the other hand, a badly managed process can risk a
recurrence of conflict, continued stagnation and suffering, and perpetual fragility. The economics of postconflict
reconstruction, therefore, is critical to the future of MENA's economies.