Journal articles published externally

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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Off-Farm Employment and Earnings in Rural China

2011, Huang, Jikun, Zhi, Huayong, Huang, Zhurong, Rozelle, Scott, Giles, John

This paper examines the effect of the financial crisis on off-farm employment of China's rural labor force. Using a national representative dataset, we find that there was a large impact. By April 2009 off-farm employment reached 6.8% of the rural labor force. Monthly earnings also declined. However, while we estimate that 49 million were laid-off between October 2008 and April 2009, half of them were re-hired in off-farm work by April 2009. By August 2009, less than 2% of the rural labor force was unemployed due to the crisis. The robust recovery appears to have helped avoid instability.

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Chronic and Transient Poverty: Measurement and Estimation, with Evidence from China

2010, Duclos, Jean-Yves, Araar, Abdelkrim, Giles, John

The paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways. First, it proposes a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components. Second, it provides corrections for the statistical biases introduced when using a small number of periods to estimate the importance of vulnerability and transient poverty. Third, it applies these tools to the measurement of chronic and transient poverty in China using a rich panel data set that extends over 17 years. Alternative measurement techniques are found to yield significantly different estimates of the relative importance of chronic and transient poverty. The precision of the estimates is also considerably enhanced by simple statistical corrections.