Journal articles published externally
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Publication The Impact of Decentralization on Subnational Government Fiscal Slack in Indonesia(2009-07) Lewis, Blane D.; Oosterman, AndreSince Indonesia began implementing its decentralization program in 2001, subnational unspent balances have grown rapidly and have reached levels that many officials find unreasonably high. But the extent to which subnational government reserves are excessive, in general, is not obvious. A not implausible decrease in the price of oil would reduce transfers to subnationals significantly and, if sustained, could possibly eliminate reserves in a relatively short time. Central government should not take any immediate action to reduce subnational slack resources directly but should instead focus on removing the underlying causes of such.Publication Joint Bidding, Governance and Public Procurement Costs : A Case of Road Projects(2009) Estache, Antonio; Iimi, AtsushiTo utilize public resources efficiently, it is important to take advantage of competition in public procurement auctions to the maximum extent. Joint bidding is a common practice that potentially facilitates competition. By pooling financial and experiential resources, more firms are expected to enter the market, but it will also directly reduce competition if more than one bidder who is solely qualified makes a coalition. In theory joint bidding may or may not be beneficial to auctioneers, depending on the model. The paper empirically examines the impacts of joint bidding on firms' entry as well as bidding behaviour, using data on public road projects in developing countries. It shows that coalitional bids, in particular by local firms, would be competitive, but foreign joint ventures would undermine competition. It is also found that good governance can encourage firms' entry into the tendering and facilitate joint bidding practices.Publication Corruption and Concession Renegotiations : Evidence from the Water and Transport Sectors in Latin America(2009) Guasch, J. LuisNumerous renegotiations have plagued water and transport concession contracts in Latin America. Using a panel dataset of over 300 concession contracts from Latin America between 1989 and 2000, we show that country-level corruption is a significant determinant of these renegotiations and that the effect of corruption varies depending on the type of renegotiations considered. While a more corrupt environment clearly leads to more firm-led renegotiations, it significantly reduces the incidence of government-led ones. The paper then discusses and tests the likely channels through which these different effects of corruption arise, looking in particular at the interactions between country-level corruption and relevant microeconomic institutions.Publication Multidimensionality and Renegotiation: Evidence from Transport-Sector Public-Private-Partnership Transactions in Latin America(2009) Estache, Antonio; Guasch, Jose-Luis; Iimi, Atsushi; Trujillo, LourdesMultidimensional auctions are a natural, practical solution when governments pursue more than one objective in their public-private-partnership transactions. However, multi-criteria auctions seem difficult to implement and vulnerable to corruption and opportunistic behavior of both parties involved. Using data from road and railway concessions in Latin America, the paper examines the probability of renegotiation in connection with the selected award criteria. It shows that auctioneers tend to adopt the multidimensional format when the need for social considerations, such as alleviation of unemployment, is high. But more renegotiations would likely happen when the multidimensional format is used. Good governance, particularly regulatory quality and anti-corruption policies, can mitigate the renegotiation problem.Publication Understanding Variations in Local Conflict: Evidence and Implications from Indonesia(2009) Barron, Patrick; Kaiser, Kai; Pradhan, MennoRecent studies of large-scale "headline" conflicts have excluded consideration of local conflict, in large part due to the absence of representative data at low levels of geographic specification. This paper is a first attempt to correct for that by assessing the incidence, impacts, and patterns of local conflict in Indonesia. We employ a combination of qualitative fieldwork with an exploratory statistical analysis of the 2003 Village Potential Statistics collected by the Bureau of Statistics (Potensi Desa-PODES), which maps conflict across all of Indonesia's villages/neighborhoods. Violent conflict can be observed throughout the archipelago. The qualitative analysis shows that local conflicts vary in form and impacts across districts, and that local factors are key. The quantitative analysis, which excludes high conflict areas of Indonesia, confirms the importance of economic factors, with positive correlations between violent conflict and poverty, inequality, and variables measuring economic development. Clustering of ethnic groups and ill-defined property rights were also positively associated with violence.Publication Securing Property Rights in Transition: Lessons from Implementation of China's Rural Land Contracting Law(2009) Deininger, KlausMotivated by the emphasis on secure property rights as a determinant of economic development in recent literature, we use village- and household-level information from about 800 villages throughout China to explore whether legal reform increased protection of land rights against unauthorized reallocation or expropriation with below-average compensation by the state. In addition to providing nation-wide evidence on a sensitive topic, we find positive impacts, equivalent increasing land values by 30 percent, of reform even in the short term that originated in villages where democratic election of leaders ensured a minimum level of accountability, pointing towards complementarity between good governance and legal reform. Implications for situations where individuals and groups hold overlapping rights to land are explored.