Journal articles published externally

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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
  • Publication
    The Delivery of Low-Cost, Low-Carbon Rural Energy Services
    (2011) Casillas, Christian E.; Kammen, Daniel M.
    The provision of both electrical and mechanical energy services can play a critical role in poverty alleviation for the almost two billion rural users who currently lack access to electricity. Distributed generation using diesel generators remains a common means of electricity provision for rural communities throughout the world. Due to rising fuel costs, the need to address poverty, and consequences of global warming, it is necessary to develop cost efficient means of reducing fossil fuel consumption in isolated diesel microgrids. Based on a case study in Nicaragua, a set of demand and supply side measures are ordered by their annualized costs in order to approximate an energy supply curve. The curve highlights significant opportunities for reducing the costs of delivering energy services while also transitioning to a carbon-free electrical system. In particular, the study demonstrates the significant cost savings resulting from the implementation of conventional metering, efficient residential lighting, and electricity generation using renewable energy sources.
  • Publication
    The Prospects for Coal-to-Liquid Conversion: A General Equilibrium Analysis
    (2011) Chen, Y. H. Henry; Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey
    We investigate the economics of coal-to-liquid (CTL) conversion, a polygeneration technology that produces liquid fuels, chemicals, and electricity by coal gasification and Fischer-Tropsch process. CTL is more expensive than extant technologies when producing the same bundle of output. In addition, the significant carbon footprint of CTL may raise environmental concerns. However, as petroleum prices rise, this technology becomes more attractive especially in coal-abundant countries such as the U.S. and China. Furthermore, including a carbon capture and storage (CCS) option could greatly reduce its CO2 emissions at an added cost. To assess the prospects for CTL, we incorporate the engineering data for CTL from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. Based on DOE's plant design that focuses mainly on liquid fuels production, we find that without climate policy, CTL has the potential to account for up to a third of the global liquid fuels supply by 2050 and at that level would supply about 4.6% of global electricity demand. A tight global climate policy, on the other hand, severely limits the potential role of the CTL even with the CCS option, especially if low-carbon biofuels are available. Under such a policy, world demand for petroleum products is greatly reduced, depletion of conventional petroleum is slowed, and so the price increase in crude oil is less, making CTL much less competitive.
  • Publication
    Energy Poverty in Rural Bangladesh
    (2011) Barnes, Douglas F.; Khandker, Shahidur R.; Samad, Hussain A.
    Energy poverty is a well-established concept among energy and development specialists. International development organizations frequently cite energy-poverty alleviation as a necessary condition to reduce income poverty. Several approaches used to measure energy poverty over the past 20 years have defined the energy poverty line as the minimum quantity of physical energy needed to perform such basic tasks as cooking and lighting. This paper uses a demand-based approach to define the energy poverty line as the threshold point at which energy consumption begins to rise with increases in household income. At or below this threshold point, households consume a bare minimum level of energy and should be considered energy poor. This approach was applied using cross-sectional data from a comprehensive 2004 household survey representative of rural Bangladesh. The findings suggest that some 58 percent of rural households in Bangladesh are energy poor, versus 45 percent that are income poor. The findings also suggest that policies to support rural electrification and greater use of improved biomass stoves might play a significant role in reducing energy poverty.
  • Publication
    Bidder Asymmetry in Infrastructure Procurement: Are There Any Fringe Bidders?
    (2010) Estache, Antonio; Iimi, Atsushi
    Asymmetric auctions are among the most rapidly growing areas in the auction literature. The potential benefits from intensified auction competition could be enormous in the public procurement context. Entrant bidders are considered a key to enhance competition and break potential collusive arrangements among incumbent bidders. Asymmetric auction theory predicts that weak (fringe) bidders would bid more aggressively when they are faced with a strong (incumbent) opponent. Using data from official development projects, this paper shows that entrants actually submitted aggressive bids in the presence of incumbent(s) in the road sector and to a certain extent in the water sector. For electricity projects, the general competition effect is found to be particularly significant, but the entrant effect remains unclear. The results suggest that auctioneers should foster competition in public procurement, including fringe bidders, to contain public infrastructure investment costs.
  • Publication
    Nuclear Power: Understanding the Economic Risks and Uncertainties
    (2010) Kessides, Ioannis N.
    This paper identifies the fundamental elements and critical research tasks of a comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of nuclear power relative to investments in alternative baseload technologies. The proposed framework seeks to: (i) identify the set of expected parameter values under which nuclear power becomes cost competitive relative to alternative generating technologies; (ii) identify the main risk drivers and quantify their impacts on the costs of nuclear power; (iii) estimate the nuclear power option value; (iv) assess the nexus between electricity market structure and the commercial attractiveness of nuclear power; (v) evaluate the economics of smaller sized nuclear reactors; (vi) identify options for strengthening the institutional underpinnings of the international safeguards regime; and (vii) evaluate the proliferation resistance of new generation reactors and fuel cycles.
  • Publication
    When Do Firms Generate? Evidence on In-House Electricity Supply in Africa
    (2010) Steinbuks, J.; Foster, V.
    This paper attempts to identify the underlying causes and costs of own generation of electric power in Africa. Rigorous empirical analysis of 8483 currently operating firms in 25 African countries shows that the prevalence of own generation would remain high (at around 20%) even if power supplies were perfectly reliable, suggesting that other factors such as firms' size, emergency back-up and export regulations play a critical role in the decision to own a generator. The costs of own-generation are about three times as high as the price of purchasing (subsidized) electricity from the public grid. However, because these generators only operate a small fraction of the time, they do not greatly affect the overall average cost of power to industry. The benefits of generator ownership are also substantial. Firms with their own generators report a value of lost load of less than US$50 per hour, compared with more than US$150 per hour for those without. Nevertheless, when costs and benefits are considered side by side, the balance is not found to be significantly positive.
  • Publication
    An Econometric Study of Illegal Electricity Connections in the Urban Favelas of Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    (2010) Mimmi, Luisa M.; Ecer, Sencer
    The data from the project "Conviver," launched in 2006 in Belo Horizonte (Brazil), provides a unique opportunity to study illegal electricity connections. Based on an original dataset of 15,279 low-income households, this paper studies the incidence and determinants of illegality in the context of low-income urban favelas. The probability of engaging in illegal behavior is explained not just by low income, but by a combination of concurring factors: sub-standard energy provision and equipment; inefficient/incorrect use of domestic electric appliances and running an informal in-house business. These recurrent issues in the urban favelas aggravate a sense of exclusion from growth, which is generally recognized as a trigger of illegality. The impact of energy demand on energy-related illegality is carefully analyzed, and different empirical strategies adopted to circumvent some simultaneity problem between both decision processes. The effectiveness of consumption-based energy subsidies is also explored. In spite of some contrary arguments in the literature, in the context of peri-urban slums, such measures may exert a positive impact in mitigating illegal access and use of energy. Effectiveness will be enhanced by accompanying measures such as: perceivable improvements of equipment, metering and maintenance, promotion of beneficiaries' awareness of energy usage, and energy-saving behaviors.
  • Publication
    Poverty and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms in Montenegro
    (2009) Silva, Patricia; Klytchnikova, Irina; Radevic, Dragana
    The creation of the Energy Community of South Eastern Europe in 2005 committed countries in South Eastern Europe to liberalize their energy markets in accordance to EU regulations. The Government of Montenegro is thus in the process of reforming its energy sector, which includes an electricity tariff reform. This paper analyzes the environmental and social impacts of an increase in residential electricity tariffs contemplated--which is expected to range anywhere from 40 to over 100% increase. As this analysis shows, such a significant price rise will impose a heavy burden on the poor households and it may adversely affect the environment. In an ex ante investigation of the welfare impact of this price increase on households in Montenegro, we show that the anticipated price increase will result in a very significant increase in households' energy expenditures. A simulation of alternative policy measures analyzes the impact of different tariff levels and structures, focusing on the poor and vulnerable households. Higher electricity prices could also significantly increase the proportion of households using fuelwood for space heating. Thus the level of fuelwood consumption should be carefully monitored under the electricity tariff reforms and the Government of Montenegro should combine the tariff reforms with a carefully evaluated set of policy measures to mitigate the effect of the electricity price increase on the poor.
  • Publication
    Electricity Reforms in Mali : A Macro-Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution
    (2009) Boccanfuso, Dorothee; Estache, Antonio; Savard, Luc
    This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) micro-simulation model to explore the distributional and poverty-related effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Mali, a poor country in West Africa. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Mali by income deciles, showing that few poor households are connected to the electricity grid. We then apply a sequential CGE micro-simulation model to track the transmission mechanisms between increases in electricity prices and changes in poverty and inequality among different household groups. Our results show that direct price increases have a minimal effect on poverty and inequality, whereas the general equilibrium effects of such increases are quite strong and negative. The compensating policies we tested do not help those who lose from the pricing reform. In fact they amplify the negative effects.