C. Journal articles published externally
2,064 items available
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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1 - 10 of 168
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Publication
The Portfolio Theory of Inflation and Policy (In)Effectiveness: A Revisitation (Published online: 14 Sep 2021)
(Taylor and Francis, 2023-08-11)This article revisits the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), with a view to further articulating its findings and implications. The article adds to the micro-foundations of the PTI, framing more rigorously the role of global investors as international allocators of capital resources, and providing richer analysis of their interaction with macroeconomic policies at country level. The article explores how country credibility enters the capital allocation choice process of global investors and how global investor choices shape the space available to country policy making, determining the extent to which the effect of macro-policies dissipates into exchange rate depreciation and higher inflation. -
Publication
Locally financed and outside financed regional fiscal multipliers
(Elsevier, 2022-04)The size of regional fiscal multipliers determines the efficacy of fiscal stimulus, the costs of fiscal austerity and whether countercyclical fiscal policy is more effective at the federal or local level. This paper studies fiscal multipliers in regions of a monetary union—US states, Eurozone members, or countries with a hard exchange-rate peg—and how multipliers are affected by the way spending is financed: local deficit financing, local tax financing or outside financing (federal or foreign aid). I present analytical and quantitative government purchase and transfer multipliers using a New Keynesian model consistent with estimated transfer multipliers in Pennings (2021), focusing on the persistence of the fiscal shock. I find that at business-cycle frequencies, financing has little effect on impact multipliers: outside-financed multipliers are only about 0.07–0.16 larger than local deficit-financed multipliers. This suggests efforts to enable local countercyclical fiscal policy may be a partial substitute for greater fiscal centralization or foreign financing. -
Publication
Explaining Differences in the Returns to R&D in Argentina: The Role of Contextual Factors
(Taylor and Francis, 2022-01-31)Argentinean firms’ investments in R&D are well below its regional peers. One potential explanation for this fact is the existence of low and heterogeneous returns for these investments. This paper uses novel microdata to estimate the returns to R&D and analyse the role of contextual factors in shaping its heterogeneity. The findings confirm that returns are indeed heterogeneous and depend on some important factors related to the market context, such as measures of uncertainty; and the knowledge context, such as knowledge spillovers. Acknowledging that heterogeneity of returns depends on firms’ context is crucial for designing innovation policies to boost private R&D returns. -
Publication
Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05)This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. -
Publication
Financial Sector Policy Response to COVID-19 in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
(Elsevier, 2021-05-21)This paper introduces a new global database and a policy classification framework that records the financial sector policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across 155 jurisdictions and over time. It documents that authorities around the world have taken a diverse array of measures to mitigate financial distress in the markets and for borrowers, and to support the provision of critical financial services to the real economy. Using Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regressions, the paper takes initial steps to analyze the determinants of policy makers’ responsiveness and activity in emerging markets and developing economies, respectively. The results indicate that policy makers in richer and more populous countries have been significantly more responsive and have taken more policy measures. Belonging to a monetary union is also significantly associated with a faster and more frequent intervention. Countries with higher private debt levels tend to respond earlier with banking sector and liquidity and funding measures. The spread of COVID-19, macro-financial fundamentals, pressure on foreign exchange markets, political settings, and fiscal and containment policies appear to play a limited role in determining policy response. In a substantially smaller sample, the paper explores the role of banking sector characteristics and finds that emerging markets and developing economies with higher private bank credit to GDP and that have adopted Basel III reforms have taken fewer policy measures. -
Publication
Cross-Region Transfer Multipliers in a Monetary Union: Evidence from Social Security and Stimulus Payments
(American Economic Association, 2021-05)US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited with helping to stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these transfers using plausibly exogenous regional variation in temporary stimulus payments and permanent Social Security benefit increases. States that received larger transfers tended to grow faster contemporaneously, with a multiplier of around 1.5 for permanent transfers and 1/3 for temporary transfers. Results are broadly consistent with an open-economy New Keynesian model. At business cycle frequencies, cross-region transfer multipliers are not large, suggesting only modest gains in regional stabilization from US federal automatic stabilizers. -
Publication
Trust to Pay? Tax Morale and Trust in Africa
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-02-14)Although low tax morale hits developing countries hardest, little is known about its determinants in those countries. This paper examines the impact of trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood on individual tax morale in four African countries. First, the paper provides theoretical foundations of such a relationship. Further, the paper uses the World Value Survey to estimate the effects of trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood on individual tax morale. The identification strategy employs the instrumental variables method and relies on historical data on the slave trade and the literature on the cultural heritage of trust. The paper finds that trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood are associated with tax morale in Algeria, Ghana, Morocco, and Nigeria. The findings are robust to an alternative identification strategy, additional controls, and a falsification test. -
Publication
Getting Practical with Causal Mechanisms: The Application of Process‐Tracing under Real‐World Evaluation Constraints
(Wiley, 2020-10-06)Over the past decade, the field of development evaluation has seen a renewed interest in methodological approaches that can answer compelling causal questions about what works, for whom, and why. Development evaluators have notably started to experiment with Bayesian Process Tracing to unpack, test, and enhance their comprehension of causal mechanisms triggered by development interventions. This chapter conveys one such experience of applying Bayesian Process Tracing to the study of citizen engagement interventions within a conditional cash transfer program under real‐world evaluation conditions. The chapter builds on this experience to discuss the benefits, challenges, and potential for the applicability of this approach under real‐world evaluation conditions of time, money, and political constraints. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions. https://authorservices.wiley.com/author-resources/Journal-Authors/licensing/self-archiving.html -
Publication
Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply
(Elsevier, 2020-08)In recent years, developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables. Using a resource-based measure of food production and consumption that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with animal-based foods, this article finds per capita demand growth to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario to 2050 from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which assumes continued income convergence, the article finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be about a third greater than under a hypothetical scenario of all countries growing at the same rate (78 percent). As convergence increases the growth of food supply by less than demand, it appears to be a driver of upward pressure on world food prices. -
Publication
The Political Economy of Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement: A Comparative Analysis of Mexico and Uganda
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-03-11)As part of the 2030 Agenda, much effort has been exerted in comparing multidimensional child poverty measures both technically and conceptually. Yet, few countries have adopted and used any of these measures in policymaking. This paper explores the reasons for this absence from a political economy perspective. It develops an innovative political economy framework for poverty measurement and a hypothesis whereby a country will only produce and use reliable and sustainable multidimensional child poverty (MDCP) measures if and only if three conditions coalesce: consensus, capacity and polity. We explore this framework with two relevant case studies, Mexico and Uganda. Both countries satisfy the capacity condition required to measure MDCP but only Mexico satisfies the other two conditions. Our proposed political economy framework is normatively relevant because it identifies the conditions that need to change across multiple contexts before the effective adoption and use of an MDCP measure becomes more likely.