C. Journal articles published externally

2,064 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4401

These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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Now showing 1 - 8 of 8

Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05) Devadas, Sharmila ; Elbadawi, Ibrahim ; Loayza, Norman V.

This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.
On Ideas and Economic Policy: A Survey of MENA Economists

(Taylor and Francis, 2020-01-29) Hendy, Rana ; Mohieldin, Mahmoud

This paper examines how economic ideas have been shaped throughout history and the influence of these on the formulation of economic policy. We collect both quantitative and qualitative data from economists who are originally from the Middle East and North Africa region or working on the region. We find that economists and their ideas are more likely to be influenced by multiple schools of thought than adhere to one school. This multiplicity spills over into the type of solutions proposed to economic problems and thus policy implications. One of the main recommendations of this study is that there is a need for the development of economics and economists to recognize the impact of political and social issues that are not easy to grasp through modeling.
Optimal Targeting Under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context

(Elsevier, 2018-01-05) Verme, Paolo ; Gigliarano, Chiara

The paper uses Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and related indexes to determine the optimal targeting strategy of a food voucher program for refugees. Estimations focus on the 2014 food voucher administered by the World Food Program to Syrian refugees in Jordan using data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The paper shows how to use ROC curves to optimize targeting using coverage rates, budgets, or poverty lines as guiding principles to increase the overall efficiency of a program. As humanitarian organizations operate under increasing budget constraints and increasing demands for efficiency, the proposed approach addresses both concerns.
Energy Subsidies, Public Investment and Endogenous Growth

(Elsevier, 2017-11) Mundaca, Gabriela

We consider impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reforms on economic growth, focusing mostly on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The main empirical result is that a country that initially subsidizes its fossil fuels, and then eliminates or reduces these subsidies, will as a result experience higher economic GDP per capita growth, and higher levels of employment and labor force participation, especially among the young. These effects are strongest in countries whose fuel subsidies are high at the outset, such as in the MENA region. Our model predicts that a 20 US$ cents average increase in the gasoline and diesel prices per liter, through removal of subsidies, increase the GDP per capita growth rate by about 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively. In the MENA countries, governments’ savings from reduced subsidies seem to be earmarked mainly to health expenditures, education expenditures and public investment in infrastructure. These channels appear to be strong contributing factors to higher long-run growth when fuel subsidies are reduced.
Book Review: The Middle East Economies in Times of Transition

(Taylor and Francis, 2016-09-02) Devarajan, Shantayanan

In 2011, when the organizers of the International Economics Association decided to hold their 2014 World Congress in Jordan, they did not anticipate that the Middle East would be the center of one of the most important economic, political and social transitions of our time. The Arab Spring caught much of the world by surprise. Its aftermath has led to political unrest, violent conflict and deteriorating economic performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The organizers therefore asked Ishac Diwan and Ahmed Galal, two leading economists and experts on the region, to put together an edited volume from the papers at the World Congress relevant to the transition in the Middle East. This volume collects some of those papers, as well as a few others, to explain the factors that led to the Arab Spring and to anticipate some of its consequences. It provides a multidisciplinary “snapshot” of research on the transitions in MENA.
Economic Valuation of Climate Change Induced Biodiversity Impacts on Agriculture : Results from a Macroeconomic Application to the Mediterranean Basin

(Taylor and Francis, 2014-10-14) Palatnik, Ruslana Rachel ; Dias Nunes, Paulo Augusto Lourenço

It is clear that climate change involves changes in temperature and precipitation and, therefore, directly affects land productivity. However, this is not the only channel for climatic change to affect agro-systems. Biodiversity is also subject to climatic change. The present paper illustrates a unique attempt to economically assess the potential effects of climate change induced impacts of biodiversity on the agricultural sector in terms of changes in land productivity, changes in agricultural output and, ultimately, changes in national GDPs. Economic valuation shows that climate change induced impacts on biodiversity cause significant changes in GDP. However, the intensity of these changes varies across the economies under consideration. Some countries, and respective economies, show to be less resilient than others and, most of the time, the welfare changes involved clearly signal the presence of winners and losers. For example, the majority of non-EU Mediterranean economies are subject to a negative impact in their national GDP due to climate change-induced impacts on biodiversity that will be hampering the negative effect of climatic conditions on agro-ecosystems. These results reiterate the importance of welfare analyses of climate change-caused impacts on biodiversity that focus on the redistributive aspects involved with these impacts.
How Vulnerable are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?

(Taylor and Francis, 2014-06-27) Ianchovichina, Elena I. ; Loening, Josef L. ; Wood, Christina A.

We estimate pass-through effects of international food price movements into domestic food prices for 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, using threshold regressions. International price movements transmit to various degrees into domestic prices. Transmission is mostly asymmetric, pushing domestic price levels up as increases in international food prices are typically passed through, but declines are rarely transmitted. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, notably the presence of food subsidies in the context of fiscal constraints. Hence, both international prices and their volatility matter for domestic inflation, yet domestic factors also play a role.
Leveraging Fuel Subsidy Reform for Transition in Yemen

(MDPI, 2012-10-30) Breisinger, Clemens ; Engelke, Wilfried ; Ecker, Olivier

Yemen is currently undergoing a major political transition, yet many economic challenges—including fuel subsidy reform—remain highly relevant. To inform the transition process with respect to a potential subsidy reform, we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model for Yemen; we show that overall growth effects of subsidy reduction are positive in general, but poverty can increase or decrease depending on reform design. A promising strategy for a successful reform combines fuel subsidy reduction with direct income transfers to the poorest one-third of households during reform, and productivity-enhancing investment in infrastructure, plus fiscal consolidation. Public investments should be used for integrating economic spaces and restructuring of agricultural, industrial and service value chains in order to create a framework that encourages private-sector-led and job-creating growth.