C. Journal articles published externally

2,064 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4401

These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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Now showing 1 - 6 of 6

The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN

(Elsevier, 2018-01-05) Brueckner, Markus ; Dabla-Norris, Era ; Gradstein, Mark ; Lederman, Daniel

We present instrumental variables estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and GDP per capita. The increase in GDP per capita that ASEAN economies experienced during 1970–2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class in these countries. Econometric model estimates show that the impact of a rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on initial levels of GDP per capita. In the majority of ASEAN countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to GDP per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth for levels of ASEAN economies' GDP per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of GDP per capita a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth of GDP per capita in ASEAN. We show that investment is an important channel through which the income share of the middle class affects economic growth.
Book Review of Managing Globalization in the Asian Century: Essays in Honour of Prema-Chandra Athukorala

(Taylor and Francis, 2017) Rahardja, Sjamsu

Asia is a region of economic miracles, and this festschrift for the esteemed development economist Prema-Chandra Athukorala highlights a major driver of Asia’s success: globalization. Economic progress in Asia cannot be separated from globalization’s role in industrializing the region’s agrarian economies. Most countries in Asia have, to varying degrees, embraced globalization by opening up to foreign direct investment (to stimulate markets and to transfer know-how) and facilitating the growth of export-oriented industries.
The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

(Taylor and Francis, 2016-06-30) Mulder, Christian ; Perrelli, Roberto ; Duarte Rocha, Manuel

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs‏. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.
Beyond Univariate Measurement of Spatial Autocorrelation : Disaggregated Spillover Effects for Indonesia

(Taylor and Francis, 2013-08-02) Day, Jennifer ; Lewis, Blane

Most studies that incorporate spatial effects use a very limited number of spatial variables in the growth model, e.g. growth spillovers or infrastructure impacts of neighbouring regions. This article innovates on previous work in spatial econometrics by differentiating among spatial contributions to economic development; e.g. infrastructure, capital, human capital, land and labour. We explore whether including more spatial effects can improve the viability of a growth model, and also test the hypothesis that the differential spatial effects of various important predictor variables are discernible for Indonesia. We develop two econometric estimations based on the Durbin representation of the Spatial Error Model. We take advantage of a panel data set spanning Indonesia's post-decentralization years, 2003–2008. The first model uses a modified fixed effects formulation, and the second uses a maximum likelihood estimator. The two sets of models are reported together to serve as a check to the robustness of the results. Multiple estimation methods were attempted, including (to control for potential endogeneity) two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings suggest that various types of spillover effects affect a place by different processes, and accounting for this variety of processes in growth models improves the efficacy of those models. Our findings suggest that, for Indonesian districts, the influence of neighbours extends beyond GRDP per capita levels and growth, and also includes demographics, human capital and infrastructure components. We also demonstrate empirically that accounting for spatial effects in analysis of GRDP per capita can improve growth-model estimations.
Urbanization and Economic Growth in Indonesia : Good News, Bad News, and (Possible) Local Government Mitigation

(Taylor and Francis, 2013-01-08) Lewis, Blane D.

Time series analysis for Indonesia over the period 1960-2009 suggests that the level of urbanization is positively associated with economic growth but that the rate of change of urbanization is negatively correlated with growth of economic output. A sub-national dynamic panel investigation provides additional evidence of the positive and negative level and rate effects, respectively. The panel analysis also implies that the harmful impact of urban population growth is linked to insufficient local public infrastructure spending. Local governments that invest more heavily in infrastructure are better able to cope with the apparent detrimental effects of rapid urbanization on economic growth.
Success and Failure of Reform: Isights from the Transition of Agriculture

(American Economic Association, 2004-06) Rozelle, Scott ; Swinnen, Johan F.M.

The paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance. We focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes, fundamental differences among countries, and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships. We document post reform performance in the transition countries of Asia and Europe. We show how: a.) pricing reform and subsidy reductions; b.) land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring; and c.) the presence institutions that facilitate exchange (either markets or market substitutes) affect output and productivity. The paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition.