C. Journal articles published externally
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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Publication
Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05)This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. -
Publication
Trust to Pay? Tax Morale and Trust in Africa
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-02-14)Although low tax morale hits developing countries hardest, little is known about its determinants in those countries. This paper examines the impact of trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood on individual tax morale in four African countries. First, the paper provides theoretical foundations of such a relationship. Further, the paper uses the World Value Survey to estimate the effects of trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood on individual tax morale. The identification strategy employs the instrumental variables method and relies on historical data on the slave trade and the literature on the cultural heritage of trust. The paper finds that trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood are associated with tax morale in Algeria, Ghana, Morocco, and Nigeria. The findings are robust to an alternative identification strategy, additional controls, and a falsification test. -
Publication
The Political Economy of Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement: A Comparative Analysis of Mexico and Uganda
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-03-11)As part of the 2030 Agenda, much effort has been exerted in comparing multidimensional child poverty measures both technically and conceptually. Yet, few countries have adopted and used any of these measures in policymaking. This paper explores the reasons for this absence from a political economy perspective. It develops an innovative political economy framework for poverty measurement and a hypothesis whereby a country will only produce and use reliable and sustainable multidimensional child poverty (MDCP) measures if and only if three conditions coalesce: consensus, capacity and polity. We explore this framework with two relevant case studies, Mexico and Uganda. Both countries satisfy the capacity condition required to measure MDCP but only Mexico satisfies the other two conditions. Our proposed political economy framework is normatively relevant because it identifies the conditions that need to change across multiple contexts before the effective adoption and use of an MDCP measure becomes more likely. -
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Optimal Targeting Under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context
(Elsevier, 2018-01-05)The paper uses Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and related indexes to determine the optimal targeting strategy of a food voucher program for refugees. Estimations focus on the 2014 food voucher administered by the World Food Program to Syrian refugees in Jordan using data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The paper shows how to use ROC curves to optimize targeting using coverage rates, budgets, or poverty lines as guiding principles to increase the overall efficiency of a program. As humanitarian organizations operate under increasing budget constraints and increasing demands for efficiency, the proposed approach addresses both concerns. -
Publication
Does Inducing Informal Firms to Formalize Make Sense?: Experimental Evidence from Benin
(Elsevier, 2018-01)Efforts to bring informal firms into the formal sector are often based on a view that this will bring benefits to the firms themselves, or at least benefit governments through increasing the tax base. A randomized experiment based around the introduction of the entreprenant legal status in Benin is used to test these assumptions, along with supplementary efforts to enhance the presumed benefits of formalizing to firms. Few firms register when just given information about the new regime, but our full package of supplementary efforts boosts formalization by 16.3 percentage points. However, this formalization does not bring firms higher sales or profits, and the cost of formalizing these firms exceeds the added taxation they will pay over the next decade. We show how better targeting of these policies towards firms that look more like formal firms to begin with can increase the formalization rate and improve cost-effectiveness. -
Publication
Organizational Performance with In-group and Out-group Leaders: An Experiment
(Elsevier, 2017-12-02)In this paper, we compare the performance of a homogeneous organization in which group members and the leader belong to the same group, with a heterogeneous organization in which the leader is an outsider. Using a modified public goods game in which leaders’ performance in a real effort task determines the marginal return to the public good we focus on the effect of shared group membership on: i) the effort of the leader in the real effort task, ii) cooperation of group members and iii) group members’ payoffs. When the leaders are selected randomly, we find that homogeneous groups tend to out-perform heterogeneous groups. This is due to lower performance of the out-group leader and not to differences in cooperation. This effect disappears when high-performance leaders are selected. High performance out-group leaders tend to over perform relative to in-group leaders, yet, there are no differences in cooperation once we control for the marginal incentives to invest in the public good. The results of our study have important implications for how organizations can deal with the arrival of out-group leaders. -
Publication
Extending a Lifeline or Cutting Losses?: The Effects of Conflict on Household Receipts of Remittances in Pakistan
(Elsevier, 2017-11)The author examines the causal effects of long-term exposure to conflict, measured at the micro level, on households’ receipt of remittances, among households residing in areas affected by the 2010 floods in Pakistan. Using a dataset of 7802 households, representative of all flood-affected areas of Pakistan in 2010, IV estimation is employed to overcome the endogeneity of conflict exposure and remittance receipts, and control for a range of confounding factors. Contrary to the literature from country-level case studies, it is found that long-term exposure to conflict reduces households’ likelihood of receiving any remittances at all, as well as the average amounts of remittances received. However for households in the lowest food consumption expenditure quintile, conflict has a positive effect on the likelihood of remittance receipts, which provides evidence for the existence of heterogeneous effects as well as a significant micro–macro gap in understanding the causal effects of conflict on remittance receipts. -
Publication
Transferring the Purchasing Role from International to National Organizations During the Scale-Up Phase of Performance-Based Financing in Cameroon
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-04-13)The World Bank and the government of Cameroon launched a performance-based financing (PBF) program in Cameroon in 2011. To ensure its rapid implementation, the performance purchasing role was sub-contracted to a consultancy firm and a nongovernmental organization, both international. However, since the early stage, it was agreed upon that this role would later be transferred to a national entity. This explanatory case study aims at analyzing the process of this transfer using Dolowitz and Marsh's framework. We performed a document review and interviews with various stakeholders (n = 33) and then conducted thematic analysis of interview recordings. Sustainability, ownership, and integration of the PBF intervention into the health system emerged as the main reasons for the transfer. The different aspects of transfer from international entities to a national body consisted of (1) the decision-making power, (2) the “soft” elements (e.g., ideas, expertise), and (3) the “hard” elements (e.g., computers, vehicles). Factors facilitating the transfer included the fact that it was planned from the start and the modification of the legal status of the national organization that became responsible for strategic purchasing. Other factors hindered the transfer, such as the lack of a legal act clarifying the conditions of the transfer and the lack of post-transition support agreements. The Cameroonian experience suggests that key components of a successful transfer of PBF functions from international to national organizations may include clear guidelines, co-ownership and planning of the transition by all parties, and post-transition support to new actors. -
Publication
The Dilemma of Autonomy: Decentralization and Water Politics at the Sub-National Level
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-01-19)This article develops a framework for understanding the role of subnational states in water politics in decentralized federal systems. First, that role has increased worldwide as a result of decentralization. Second, the quest for autonomy sometimes leads subnational officials to prefer weak forms of cooperation. Third, the interaction of subnational states, central governments and non-governmental actors largely explains interjurisdictional conflict and cooperation in shared river basins. This framework is applied to the case of the Colorado River basin to help explain a long-term shift towards more cooperative relationships between the riparian states. -
Publication
Religion and Social Cooperation: Results from an Experiment in Ghana
(Taylor and Francis, 2016-09-06)The international community recently adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving these goals by 2030 will require major commitments and efforts. It will also require cooperation between multiple groups and stakeholders, both nationally and internationally. An interesting question is whether religious diversity and the evocation of religion tend to be conducive to “social cooperation” between individuals from various religious traditions. We refer here to social cooperation in a fairly broad sense, but we focus in this paper on specific measures of altruism and trustworthiness between individuals of various different religious affiliations.