C. Journal articles published externally

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4401

These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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The Roadmap for Green Development of Western China

(Taylor and Francis, 2013-10-01) Kruk, Robyn ; Thompson, Derek ; Liu, Jiyuan ; Deng, Xiangzheng ; Wang, Peishen

China has made some remarkable achievements in sustainable development, but the constant deterioration of the overall trend of the environment has not yet been effectively curbed. To achieve the goal of sustainable development, we must first ensure coordination and coherence of national development goals in different areas and adhere to green development road. To achieve the objectives related to green development, and to clarify the direction of green development in the next 20 years, a road map is needed to guide and coordinate the process. This paper describes the concept of the green development road map, introduces a green development road map for the western region, and further elaborates it. The road map clarifies the objectives and guiding principles of green development in the western region, points the areas that deserve more concern and institutional innovation, and builds a green development monitoring and evaluation (M & E) framework. Finally, the paper provides corresponding policy recommendations based on the established road map.
Leading Dragon Phenomenon : New Opportunities for Catch-up in Low-Income Countries

(Asian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute, 2013-03) Chandra, Vandana ; Lin, Justin Yifu ; Wang, Yan

Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully have followed their comparative advantages and leveraged the latecomer advantage, including emerging market economies such as the People's Republic of China (PRC), India, and Indonesia. The current view is that Chinese dominance in manufacturing hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. We argue that rising labor cost is causing the PRC to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. This will result in the relocation of low-skill manufacturing jobs to other low-wage countries. This process, which we call the “leading dragon phenomenon,” offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income countries. Such economies can seize this opportunity by attracting the rising outward foreign direct investment flowing from Brazil, the PRC, India, and Indonesia into the manufacturing sectors. All low-income countries can compete for the jobs spillover from the PRC and other emerging economies, but the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage.
China and the Global Economy

(Taylor and Francis, 2011-10-07) Lin, Justin Yifu

As a result of the extraordinary performance in the past 20 years, China's status in the global economy has dramatically changed. In this article, I reflect on China's unprecedented growth, examine the reasons for that growth, and discuss promising prospects for the Chinese economy to maintain an 8% annual growth rate in the coming two decades. Although to maintain that growth rate, China will definitely encounter many challenges – both internally and externally. The twenty-first century has witnessed the emergence of a multi-polar growth world, with many of the new growth poles being emerging market economies. China has become the top contributor to global GDP growth in the decade of 2000–2009. If China copes appropriately with its challenges and deepens its structural reforms, it has the potential to continue its role as a leading power in supporting a multi-polar global economic architecture that benefits both developing and high-income countries in various ways.
US–China External Imbalance and the Global Financial Crisis

(Taylor and Francis, 2010-06-23) Lin, Justin Yifu ; Dinh, Hinh T. ; Im, Fernando

This paper advances an alternative explanation of the large external imbalance between the United States and China, and its linkages to the current global financial crisis. We show that US current account deficits dated back long before the emergence of China's recent large trade surpluses, with China accounting at its peak for at most one-third of this deficit. The relative rise in China's savings in recent years can be attributed to an increase in its corporate savings, a trend that reflects distortions arising from the transition process from a planned to a market economy. These distortions exacerbate China's income inequality, causing domestic consumption to remain a small share of GDP. Large recent current account deficits in the United States, on the other hand, can be attributed to public sector disserving and perverse incentives generated by housing and equity bubbles, made possible by loose monetary policy and by “innovative” financial derivatives arising from the financial deregulation in the early 1980s. The paper shows that short-run measures are unlikely to fully address these external imbalances. Both countries require long-run, structural measures to resolve the underlying problems and to restore a sustainable foundation for growth.
Growth Strategies and Dynamics: Insights from Country Experiences

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008) El-Erian, Mohamed A. ; Spence, Michael

The paper examines the challenges that developing countries face in accelerating and sustaining growth. The cases of China and India are examined to illustrate a more general phenomenon which might be called model uncertainty. As a developing economy grows, its market and regulatory institutions change and their capabilities increase. As a result, growth strategies and policies and the role of government shift. Further, as the models of economies in these transitional states are incomplete and because models used to predict policy impacts in advanced economies may not provided accurate predictions in the developing economy case, growth strategies and policies need to be responsive and to evolve as the economy matures. This has lead governments in countries that have sustained high growth to be somewhat pragmatic, to treat the policy directions that emerge from the advanced economy model with circumspection, to be somewhat experimental in seeking to accelerate export diversification, to be sensitive to risks, and as a result to proceed gradually in areas such as the timing and sequencing of opening up on the current and capital accounts. The last is an area in which existing theory provides relatively little specific guidance, but in which there are relatively high risks that decline over time as the market matures.