Journal articles published externally

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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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  • Publication
    Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (2010) Buys, Piet; Deichmann, Uwe; Wheeler, David
    Recent research suggests that poor economic integration and isolation from regional and international markets have contributed significantly to poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions are major deterrents to trade expansion which would stimulate economic growth and poverty reduction. Using spatial network analysis techniques and gravity trade model estimations, this paper quantifies the economics of upgrading a primary road network that connects the major urban areas in the region. The results indicate that continental network upgrading is worth serious consideration from an economic perspective. Our simulations suggest that overland trade among Sub-Saharan African countries might expand by about $250 billion over 15 years, with major direct and indirect benefits for the rural poor. Financing the programme would require about $20 billion for initial upgrading and $1 billion annually for maintenance.
  • Publication
    Orphanhood and the Living Arrangements of Children in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (2010) Beegle, Kathleen; Filmer, Deon
    Increasing adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa raises considerable concern about the welfare of surviving children. Studies have found substantial variability across countries in the negative impacts of orphanhood on child health and education. One hypothesis for this variability is the resilience of the extended family network in some countries to care for orphans--networks under increasing pressure by the sheer number of orphans in many settings. Using household survey data from 21 countries in Africa, this study examines trends in orphanhood and living arrangements, and the links between the two. The findings confirm that orphanhood is increasing, although not all countries are experiencing rapid rises. In many countries, there has been a shift toward grandparents taking an increased childcare responsibility--especially where orphan rates are growing rapidly. This suggests some merit to the claim that the extended network is narrowing, focusing on grandparents who are older, and may be less able than working-age adults financially to support orphans. However, there are also changes in childcare patterns in countries with stable orphan rates or low HIV prevalence. This suggests that future work on living arrangements should not exclude low HIV/AIDS prevalence countries, and explanations for changes should include a broader set of factors.
  • Publication
    Infrastructure and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (2010) Calderon, Cesar; Serven, Luis
    An adequate supply of infrastructure services has long been viewed by both academics and policy makers as a key ingredient for economic development. Sub-Saharan Africa ranks consistently at the bottom of all developing regions in terms of infrastructure performance, and an increasing number of observers point to deficient infrastructure as a major obstacle for growth and poverty reduction across the region. This paper offers an empirical assessment of the impact of infrastructure development on growth and inequality, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper uses a comparative cross-regional perspective to place Africa's experience in the international context. Drawing from an updated data set of infrastructure quantity and quality indicators covering more than 100 countries and spanning the years 1960-2005, the paper estimates empirical growth and inequality equations including a standard set of control variables augmented by infrastructure quantity and quality measures, and controlling for the potential endogeneity of the latter. The estimates illustrate the potential contribution of infrastructure development to growth and equity across Africa.
  • Publication
    Electricity Reforms in Mali : A Macro-Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution
    (2009) Boccanfuso, Dorothee; Estache, Antonio; Savard, Luc
    This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) micro-simulation model to explore the distributional and poverty-related effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Mali, a poor country in West Africa. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Mali by income deciles, showing that few poor households are connected to the electricity grid. We then apply a sequential CGE micro-simulation model to track the transmission mechanisms between increases in electricity prices and changes in poverty and inequality among different household groups. Our results show that direct price increases have a minimal effect on poverty and inequality, whereas the general equilibrium effects of such increases are quite strong and negative. The compensating policies we tested do not help those who lose from the pricing reform. In fact they amplify the negative effects.