C. Journal articles published externally
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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The Poverty Reduction Strategy Approach Six Years On: An Examination of Principles and Practice in Uganda
( 2011) Canagarajah, Sudharshan ; van Diesen, ArthurIt is over six years since the World Bank and the IMF started promoting a PRS approach to development management in low-income countries. The 2005 review endorsed the approach, but highlighted the need for a renewed focus on the principles underpinning it: country ownership; results orientation; comprehensiveness; partnership focus; and long-term outlook. Uganda is often hailed as one of the best PRS performers. This article finds that Uganda's Poverty Eradicaton Action Plan (PEAP) has brought significant gains to development management, but that its performance against several of the PRS principles is disappointing. A return to these principles could improve the practice of the government and development partners around the PEAP--a finding likely to be applicable to many countries implementing a PRS. -
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Does More Cash in Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Always Lead to Larger Impacts on School Attendance?
( 2011) Filmer, Deon ; Schady, NorbertThere is considerable evidence that conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs can have large impacts on school enrollment, including in very poor countries. However, little is known about what features of program design account for the observed outcomes. In this paper we analyze the impact of a program in Cambodia that made payments of varying magnitude to otherwise comparable households. The identification is based on a sharp regression discontinuity design. We find that a modest cash transfer, equivalent to approximately 2% of the consumption of the median recipient household, had a substantial impact on school attendance, approximately 25 percentage points. A somewhat larger transfer did not raise attendance rates above this level. -
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The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific
( 2011) Gibson, John ; McKenzie, DavidA unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion and patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data suggest a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision. -
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Tenure Insecurity, Gender, Low-Cost Land Certification and Land Rental Market Participation in Ethiopia
( 2011) Holden, Stein T. ; Deininger, Klaus ; Ghebru, HosaenaThere is a renewed interest in whether land reforms can contribute to market development and poverty reduction in Africa. This paper assesses effects on the allocative efficiency of the land rental market of the low-cost approach to land registration and certification of restricted property rights that was implemented in Ethiopia in the late 1990s. Four rounds of a balanced household panel from 16 villages in northern Ethiopia are analysed, showing that land certification initially enhanced land rental market participation of (potential) tenant and landlord households, especially those that are headed by females. -
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Was Vietnam's Economic Growth in the 1990s Pro-poor? An Analysis of Panel Data from Vietnam
( 2011) Glewwe, Paul ; Dang, Hai-Anh HoangInternational aid agencies and almost all economists agree that economic growth is necessary for reducing poverty, yet some economists question whether it is sufficient for poverty reduction. Vietnam enjoyed rapid economic growth in the 1990s, but a modest increase in inequality during that decade raises the possibility that the poor in Vietnam benefited little from that growth. This article examines the extent to which Vietnam's economic growth has been "pro-poor," giving particular attention to two issues. The first is the appropriate comparison group. When comparing the poorest x% of the population at two points in time, should the poorest x% in the first time period be compared to the poorest x% in the second time period (some of whom were not the poorest x% in the first time period) or to the same people in the second time period (some of whom are no longer among the poorest x%)? The second is measurement error. Estimates of growth among the poorest x% of the population are likely to be biased if income or expenditure is measured with error. Household survey data show that Vietnam's growth has been relatively equally shared across poor and nonpoor groups. Indeed, comparisons of the same people over time indicate that per capita expenditures of the poor increased much more rapidly than those of the nonpoor, although failure to correct for measurement error exaggerates this result. -
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Fiscal Redistribution and Income Inequality in Latin America
( 2011) Goni, Edwin ; Lopez, J. Humberto ; Serven, LuisThis paper documents and compares the redistributive performance of Latin American and Western European fiscal systems. Three main conclusions emerge: (i) taxes and transfers widen the difference in income inequality between the two country groups, because (ii) the redistributive impact of the fiscal system is very large in Europe and very small in Latin America; and (iii) where fiscal redistribution is significant, it is achieved mostly through transfers rather than taxes. While the priorities of pro-equity fiscal reforms vary across Latin American countries, overall the prospects for major fiscal redistribution lie mainly in raising the volume of resources available for transfers, and improving their targeting, rather than increasing the progressivity of Latin America's tax systems. -
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The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Off-Farm Employment and Earnings in Rural China
( 2011) Huang, Jikun ; Zhi, Huayong ; Huang, Zhurong ; Rozelle, Scott ; Giles, JohnThis paper examines the effect of the financial crisis on off-farm employment of China's rural labor force. Using a national representative dataset, we find that there was a large impact. By April 2009 off-farm employment reached 6.8% of the rural labor force. Monthly earnings also declined. However, while we estimate that 49 million were laid-off between October 2008 and April 2009, half of them were re-hired in off-farm work by April 2009. By August 2009, less than 2% of the rural labor force was unemployed due to the crisis. The robust recovery appears to have helped avoid instability. -
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Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile: The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
( 2011) Galasso, EmanuelaThis paper evaluates the effect of an anti-poverty program, Chile Solidario, during its first two years of operation. We find that the program tends to increases significantly their take-up of cash assistance programs and of social programs for housing and employment, and to improve education and health outcomes for participating households. There is no evidence that the participation to employment program translates into improved employment or income outcomes in the short term. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence of the key role that the psycho-social support had in enabling this change, by increasing awareness of social services in the community as well as households' orientation towards the future. -
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Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty : The Case of Yemen
( 2011) Breisinger, Clemens ; Diao, Xinshen ; Collion, Marie-Helen ; Rondot, PierreYemen is an oil-exporting and food-importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre-existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil-driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro-poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty. -
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Female Migration and Child Occupation in Rural El Salvador
( 2011) Acosta, PabloThis article looks at the consequences of migration in terms of child education and child labor using a unique rural panel dataset for El Salvador. Results suggest gender differences in the consequences of migration on child activities that remain in El Salvador. While female migration tends to reduce child labor, both in domestic and non-domestic activities, male migration seems to stimulate it, in particular in terms of domestic labor. In contrast, while male migration has null or slightly positive impact in terms of school enrollment rates, female migration apparently reduces the likelihood that a particular child stays at school. Some of these results differ according to the gender of the child. The results do not seem to be driven by female migrants remitting more than males, but rather to alternative competing explanations, such as the existence of child-adult male labor substitution, differences in the use of remittances by gender of the recipient person, or limited ability to monitor funds when remitted by female migrants.