Journal articles published externally
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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Publication The Long Term Educational Cost of War: Evidence from Landmine Contamination in Cambodia(2011) Merrouche, OuardaThe economic impact of war may be visible in the long run and particularly through its impact on human capital. This paper uses unique district level data on landmine contamination intensity in Cambodia combined with survey data on individuals to evaluate the long-run impact of Cambodia's 30 years of war (1970-1998) on education levels and earnings. These effects are identified using difference-in-differences (DD) and instrumental variables (IV) estimators. In the DD framework I exploit two sources of variation in an individual's exposure to the conflict: age in 1970 and landmine contamination intensity in the district of residence. The IV specification uses the distance to the Thai border as an exogenous source of variation in landmine contamination intensity. The most conservative result indicates that individuals who were too young to have attended school before the start of the war received on average 0.5 less years of education. And, immediately after the war there was no visible effect on earnings. The effects are therefore overall weak. I argue that the destruction of physical capital may be what contributes to drive down the returns to education in Cambodia post-war. The estimates reported may be very conservative due to both error in our measure of conflict intensity and possible selection bias in the placement of prosperous regions.Publication Teacher Opinions on Performance Pay: Evidence from India(2011) Muralidharan, Karthik; Sundararaman, VenkateshThe practical viability of performance-based pay programs for teachers depends critically on the extent of support the idea will receive from teachers. We present evidence on teacher opinions with regard to performance-based pay from teacher interviews conducted in the context of an experimental evaluation of a program that provided performance-based bonuses to teachers in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. We report four main findings in this paper: (1) over 80% of teachers had a favorable opinion about the idea of linking a component of pay to measures of performance, (2) exposure to an actual incentive program increased teacher support for the idea, (3) teacher support declines with age, experience, training, and base pay, and (4) the extent of teachers' stated ex ante support for performance-linked pay (over a series of mean-preserving spreads of pay) is positively correlated with their ex post performance as measured by estimates of teacher value addition. This suggests that teachers are aware of their own effectiveness and that implementing a performance-linked pay program could not only have broad-based support among teachers but also attract more effective teachers into the teaching profession.Publication The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific(2011) Gibson, John; McKenzie, DavidA unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion and patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data suggest a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.Publication Intentions to Participate in Adolescent Training Programs : Evidence from Uganda(2010) Bandiera, Oriana; Burgess, Robin; Goldstein, Markus; Gulesci, Selim; Rasul, Imran; Sulaiman, MunshiAlmost one-third of the population in developing countries is under age 15. Hence improving the effectiveness of policy interventions that target adolescents might be especially important. We analyze the intention to participate in training programs of adolescent girls in Uganda, a country with perhaps the most skewed age distribution anywhere in the world. The training program we focus on is BRAC's Adolescent Development Program, which emphasizes the provision of life skills, entrepreneurship training, and microfinance. We find that girls who are more likely to benefit from the program are more likely to intend to participate. The program attracts girls who are likely to place a high value on financial independence: single mothers and girls who are alienated from their families. The program attracts girls who are more likely to benefit from training: girls who believe they could be successful entrepreneurs but currently lack the quantitative skills to do so. Reassuringly, girls who are in school full-time are less likely to intend to participate. We also find that the program attracts girls from poorer villages but we find no evidence that poorer girls within each village are more likely to want to participate. Finally, girls from villages who have previously been exposed to NGO projects are less likely to intend to participate.Publication Student Support and Academic Performance: Experiences at Private Universities in Mexico(2010) Canton, Erik; Blom, AndreasFinancial aid to students in tertiary education can contribute to human capital accumulation through two channels: increased enrollment and improved student performance. We pay particular attention to the latter channel, and study its quantitative importance in the context of a student support program from the Sociedad de Fomento a la Educacion Superior (Society for the Promotion of Higher Education) (SOFES) implemented at private universities in Mexico. Administrative data provided by SOFES are analyzed using a regression-discontinuity design. The advantage of the regression-discontinuity method is that it represents a natural experiment with randomly assigned treatment so that selection issues are minimized. The empirical results suggest that this financial aid package (loans and scholarships) contributes to better academic performance.Publication Changes in Returns to Education in Latin America : The Role of Demand and Supply of Skills(2010) Manacorda, Marco; Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina; Schady, NorbertUsing micro data for the urban areas of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, the authors document trends in men's returns to education during the 1980s and the 1990s and estimate the role of supply and demand factors in explaining the changes in skill premia. They propose a model of demand for skills with three production inputs, corresponding to workers with primary-, secondary-, and university-level education. Further, the authors demonstrate that an unprecedented rise in the supply of workers having completed secondary-level education depressed their wages relative to workers with primary-level education throughout Latin America. This supply shift was compounded by a generalized shift in the demand for workers with tertiary education.Publication The Level and Growth Effects in the Empirics of Economic Growth : Some Results with Data from Guatemala(2010) Rao, B. Bhaskara; Gounder, Rukmini; Loening, Josef L.Mankiw et al. (1992) have extended the Solow (1956) model by augmenting the production function with human capital. Its empirical success is impressive and it showed a procedure to improve the explanatory power of the neoclassical growth model. This article suggests an empirical procedure to further extend the neoclassical growth model to distinguish between the growth and level effects of shift variables like the human capital. We use time-series data from Guatemala to show that while the growth effects of education are small, they are significant and dominate the level effects.Publication India Shining and Bharat Drowning : Comparing Two Indian States to the Worldwide Distribution in Mathematics Achievement(2010) Das, JishnuIncreasing evidence suggests that the level and distribution of cognitive skills is more important to economic development than absolute measures of schooling attainment, and that income and skill inequality are inextricably linked. Yet for most of the developing world no internationally comparable estimates of cognitive skills exist. This paper uses student answers to publicly released questions from an international testing agency together with statistical methods from Item Response Theory to place secondary students from two Indian states--Orissa and Rajasthan--on a worldwide distribution of mathematics achievement. These two states fall below 43 of the 51 countries for which data exist. The bottom 5% of children rank higher than the bottom 5% in only three countries--South Africa, Ghana, and Saudi Arabia. But not all students test poorly. Inequality in the test-score distribution for both states is next only to South Africa. The combination of India's size and large variance in achievement give both the perceptions that India is shining even as Bharat, the vernacular for India, is drowning. How India's development unfolds will depend critically on how the skill distribution evolves and how low- and high-skilled workers interact in the labor market.Publication Openness and Technological Innovation in East Asia: Have They Increased the Demand for Skills?(2010) Almeida, Rita K.This paper examines whether the increased openness and technological innovation in East Asia have contributed to an increased demand for skills in the region. We explore a unique firm level data set across eight countries in the East Asia and Pacific region. Our results strongly support the idea that greater openness and technological innovation have increased the demand for skills, especially in middle-income countries. In particular, while the presence in international markets has been skill enhancing for most middle-income countries, this is not the case for manufacturing firms operating in China and in low-income countries. We interpret this to be supporting the premise that, if international integration in the region continues to intensify and technology continues to be skilled biased, policies aimed at mitigating the skills shortages should produce continual and persistent increase in skills.Publication Computer Usage and Labour Regulation in India's Retail Sector(2010) Amin, MohammadA recent survey of 1,948 retail stores in India conducted by the World Bank's Enterprise surveys shows that 19 per cent of all stores use computers. In the state of Kerala, the figure is as high as 40 per cent. Using this survey, we estimate the effect of computer usage on labour employment. Our findings show that this effect depends on the stringency of the underlying labour laws. Stricter labour laws magnify the labour displacing effect of computers significantly.