C. Journal articles published externally
2,064 items available
Permanent URI for this collection
These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
Items in this collection
1 - 10 of 11
-
Publication
Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05)This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. -
Publication
The Devil is in the Detail: Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Africa in the Last Two Decades
(Oxford University Press, 2019-08)The present paper, starting from evidence of low growth-to-poverty elasticity characterizing Africa, purports to identify the distributional changes that limited the pro-poor impact of the last two decades’ growth. Distributional changes that went undetected by standard inequality measures were not showing a clear pattern of inequality on the continent. By applying a new decomposition technique based on a non-parametric method—the ‘relative distribution’—we found a clear distributional pattern affecting almost all analysed countries. Nineteen out twenty four countries experienced a significant increase in polarization, particularly in the lower tail of the distribution, and this distributional change lowered the pro-poor impact of growth substantially. Without this unfavorable redistribution, poverty could have decreased in these countries by an additional five percentage points. -
Publication
Export Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth in the Western Balkan Countries
(Taylor and Francis, 2019)In this paper, we seek to analyze the impact that the ability to produce more sophisticated goods has on the economic performance of the Western Balkan region and to determine the factors fostering this process. To do so, we elaborate an export sophistication index, à la Hausmann. The outcomes obtained show that export sophistication has a positive and significant effect on growth in these economies. Additionally, we found that this process is driven more by the sophistication in medium-skill and technology-intensive manufactures goods rather than through sophistication in high-skill goods. Our findings also confirm that a greater participation in international production networks and a better institutional environment stimulates the upgrading of exports, and the subsequent economic growth of these economies. -
Publication
Toward Economically Dynamic Special Economic Zones in Emerging Countries
(Taylor and Francis, 2018-05-23)Despite a massive recent proliferation of special economic zones (SEZs), there is virtually no quantitative research on what drives their dynamism. The aim of this article is to address this gap and analyze the factors influencing SEZ performance—proxied by economic growth—in emerging countries. The article relies on two novel data sets, using nightlights data to proxy for SEZ performance, and containing a wide range of SEZ policy variables and characteristics across a large number of countries. The main results of the analysis indicate that (1) zone growth is difficult to sustain over time; (2) trying to upgrade the technological component or value added of the economy through SEZ policies is often challenging; and (3) zone size matters: larger zones have an advantage in terms of growth potential. Furthermore, country context significantly determines SEZ performance. Firms look for low-cost locations but in close proximity to large cities. Proximity to large markets as well as preexisting industrialization also increase SEZ performance. In contrast, incentives and other program-specific variables are highly context specific and not structurally correlated with SEZ performance. -
Publication
The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN
(Elsevier, 2018-01-05)We present instrumental variables estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and GDP per capita. The increase in GDP per capita that ASEAN economies experienced during 1970–2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class in these countries. Econometric model estimates show that the impact of a rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on initial levels of GDP per capita. In the majority of ASEAN countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to GDP per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth for levels of ASEAN economies' GDP per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of GDP per capita a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth of GDP per capita in ASEAN. We show that investment is an important channel through which the income share of the middle class affects economic growth. -
Publication
Does Energy Efficiency Promote Economic Growth?: Evidence from a Multicountry and Multisectoral Panel Dataset
(Elsevier, 2018-01)We examine the causal relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth based on panel data for 56 high- and middle-income economies from 1978 to 2012. Using a panel vector autoregression approach, we find evidence of a long-run Granger causality from economic growth to lower energy intensity for all economies. We also find evidence of long-run bidirectional causality between lower energy intensity and higher economic growth for middle-income economies. This finding suggests that beyond climate benefits, middle-income economies may also earn an extra growth dividend from energy efficiency measures. -
Publication
Energy Subsidies, Public Investment and Endogenous Growth
(Elsevier, 2017-11)We consider impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reforms on economic growth, focusing mostly on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The main empirical result is that a country that initially subsidizes its fossil fuels, and then eliminates or reduces these subsidies, will as a result experience higher economic GDP per capita growth, and higher levels of employment and labor force participation, especially among the young. These effects are strongest in countries whose fuel subsidies are high at the outset, such as in the MENA region. Our model predicts that a 20 US$ cents average increase in the gasoline and diesel prices per liter, through removal of subsidies, increase the GDP per capita growth rate by about 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively. In the MENA countries, governments’ savings from reduced subsidies seem to be earmarked mainly to health expenditures, education expenditures and public investment in infrastructure. These channels appear to be strong contributing factors to higher long-run growth when fuel subsidies are reduced. -
Publication
No Condition Is Permanent: Middle Class in Nigeria in the Last Decade
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-09-21)The economic debate on the existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries. Building on a recently developed framework called the Vulnerability Approach to Middle Class (VAMC) to define the middle class, this paper tries to estimate the size of the Nigerian middle class in a rigorous quantitative manner and to gauge its evolution over time. Using the VAMC method, the middle class group can be defined residually from the vulnerability analysis as those for which the probability of falling into poverty is below a certain threshold. The results show that there has been considerable improvement in the size of the Nigerian middle class from 13 per cent in 2003/4 to 19 per cent in 2012/13. However, the rate has been slower than expected given the high growth rates experienced in the country over the same period. The results also paint a heterogeneous picture of the middle class in Nigeria with large spatial differences. The southern regions have a higher share and experienced more growth of the middle class compared with the northern regions. -
Publication
Explaining Ethiopia’s Growth Acceleration—The Role of Infrastructure and Macroeconomic Policy
(Elsevier, 2017-08)Ethiopia has experienced an impressive growth acceleration over the past decade. This was achieved on the back of an economic strategy emphasizing public infrastructure investment supported by heterodox macro-financial policies. This paper identifies the drivers of Ethiopia’s recent growth episode and examines the extent to which they were typical or unique. It combines country-specific information with the results of a cross-country panel regression model. We find that Ethiopia’s growth is explained well by factors correlating with growth in a broad range of countries in recent decades, including public infrastructure investment, restrained government consumption, and a conducive external environment. On the other hand, we argue that the policy mix that supported very high levels of public investment in Ethiopia was, to some extent, unique. Interestingly, macroeconomic imbalances due to this heterodox policy mix only moderately held back growth which helps explain why Ethiopia was able to grow so fast in spite of their presence: their negative effects were quantitatively much less important than the positive growth drivers they helped to achieve. The results suggest that “getting infrastructure right” may outweigh moderate shortcoming in the macro framework at early stages of development. We further relate this country-specific finding to the recent growth literature. -
Publication
Multidimensional Connectivity: Why the Interplay of International Connections Matters for Knowledge Transfers
(Elsevier, 2017-07)Globalization has increased exponentially since the mid-twentieth century with the advent shipping containers, digital technologies and air transport. Being well-connected has important implications not only for incomes, but the transfer of ideas and growth enhancing technology. This study finds that being connected to well-connected countries matters for economic growth, but there is complementarity in the various types connections that enhances growth as well. Countries can benefit from: (i) multiple types of economic links (such as trade, investment, migration, and modern telecommunications) that underpin the movement of technologies and ideas; but also, (ii) the quality of connections in terms of knowledge spillovers and the indirect connections made through partners that are well connected. These are both aspects of inter-connectedness that have implications for growth and growth spillovers.