C. Journal articles published externally
2,064 items available
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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Publication
Transnational Terrorist Recruitment: Evidence from Daesh Personnel Records
(MIT Press, 2022-01-25)Global terrorist organizations attract radicalized individuals across borders and constitute a threat for both sending and receiving countries. We use unique personnel records from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) to show that unemployment in sending countries is associated with the number of transnational terrorist recruits from these countries. The relationship is spatially heterogeneous, which is most plausibly attributable to travel costs. We argue that poor labor market opportunities generally push more individuals to join terrorist organizations, but at the same time limit their ability to do so when longer travel distances imply higher migration costs. -
Publication
Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05)This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. -
Publication
Introduction to the Special Issue “Political economic perspectives of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict”
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-10-06)The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the world’s most protracted contemporary conflict and one which has gained international prominence throughout the years. As a result of the Six Days War in 1967, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip fell under Israeli control. The conflict has evolved through ebbs and flows of violence including two Palestinian uprising against Israeli control (the First and Second Intifada). These have led to tens of thousands of Palestinian and thousands of Israeli victims. There is a growing theoretical and empirical literature analyzing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this review, we discuss a selected number of studies that are most closely related to the topics covered by the articles in this special issue. -
Publication
On Ideas and Economic Policy: A Survey of MENA Economists
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-01-29)This paper examines how economic ideas have been shaped throughout history and the influence of these on the formulation of economic policy. We collect both quantitative and qualitative data from economists who are originally from the Middle East and North Africa region or working on the region. We find that economists and their ideas are more likely to be influenced by multiple schools of thought than adhere to one school. This multiplicity spills over into the type of solutions proposed to economic problems and thus policy implications. One of the main recommendations of this study is that there is a need for the development of economics and economists to recognize the impact of political and social issues that are not easy to grasp through modeling. -
Publication
Estimating the Welfare Costs of Reforming the Iraq Public Distribution System: A Mixed Demand Approach
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Through three decades of conflict, food rations delivered through the public distribution system (PDS) have remained the largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding the system’s import dependence, economic distortions, and unsustainable fiscal burden. The oil price decline of mid-2014 and recent efforts to rebuild and recover have put PDS reform back on the agenda. The government needs to find an effective way to deliver broad benefits from a narrow economic base reliant on oil. The study described here adopts a mixed demand approach to analyzing household consumption patterns for the purpose of assessing plausible reform scenarios and estimating the direction and scale of the associated welfare costs and transfers. It finds that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poor. The results suggest that any one-shot reform will have sizeable adverse welfare impacts and will need to be preceded by a well-targeted compensation mechanism. To keep welfare constant, subsidy removal in urban areas, for example, would require the poorest and richest households to be compensated for, respectively, 74 per cent and nearly 40 per cent of their PDS expenditures. -
Publication
Firm Productivity and Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from Egyptian Data
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-05-10)This paper attempts to shed the light on the nexus between firms’ productivity and economies of agglomeration in Egypt. Using a large dataset of firms in 342 firms’ four-digit activities in 27 regions (62,108 firms), we introduce three measures of agglomeration which are urbanization or firm diversification measured by the number of firms by governorate, localization and specialization measured by the average productivity by governorate and sector (generating externalities and knowledge spillovers) and finally competition measured by the number of firm operating in the same governorate and the same sector. We find strong evidence for the existence of agglomeration in Egypt after controlling for firm age, location, economic activity and legal status. In the Egyptian context, productivity spillovers gained from agglomeration measures outweighed the negative effects of competition implied by congestion. The latter is chiefly due to the lack of good infrastructure. When regressions are run by firm size, location and activity, our main findings show first that micro and small firms are more likely to benefit from localization and diversification compared to medium and large firms. Service firms benefit more from high level of diversification while manufacturing firms gain more benefits from knowledge spillovers and specialization in Egypt. -
Publication
Optimal Targeting Under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context
(Elsevier, 2018-01-05)The paper uses Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and related indexes to determine the optimal targeting strategy of a food voucher program for refugees. Estimations focus on the 2014 food voucher administered by the World Food Program to Syrian refugees in Jordan using data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The paper shows how to use ROC curves to optimize targeting using coverage rates, budgets, or poverty lines as guiding principles to increase the overall efficiency of a program. As humanitarian organizations operate under increasing budget constraints and increasing demands for efficiency, the proposed approach addresses both concerns. -
Publication
Energy Subsidies, Public Investment and Endogenous Growth
(Elsevier, 2017-11)We consider impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reforms on economic growth, focusing mostly on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The main empirical result is that a country that initially subsidizes its fossil fuels, and then eliminates or reduces these subsidies, will as a result experience higher economic GDP per capita growth, and higher levels of employment and labor force participation, especially among the young. These effects are strongest in countries whose fuel subsidies are high at the outset, such as in the MENA region. Our model predicts that a 20 US$ cents average increase in the gasoline and diesel prices per liter, through removal of subsidies, increase the GDP per capita growth rate by about 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively. In the MENA countries, governments’ savings from reduced subsidies seem to be earmarked mainly to health expenditures, education expenditures and public investment in infrastructure. These channels appear to be strong contributing factors to higher long-run growth when fuel subsidies are reduced. -
Publication
Real Effects of Working Capital Shocks: Theory and Evidence from Micro Data
(Elsevier, 2017-07-21)Our study investigates the real consequences of variations in the first and second moments of working capital requirement (WCR) in the presence of financial frictions. We introduce a theoretical link from imperfect information about WCR to firms’ performance. Firms choose non-prepaid factors of production with uncertainty about required prepayments, where their access to credit is constrained by collateral. After realization, firms with higher WCR may face financial constraints. This uncertainty influences their demand for inputs, albeit risk-neutrality. Unable to employ the projected level of prepaid input, constrained firms encounter capacity underutilization, leading to misallocation of factors. Aggregate productivity and output, will thus be deteriorated during credit contraction due to higher inefficiency. Empirical assessment of our findings, using the “Annual Survey of Iranian Manufacturing Enterprises,” shows that higher requirement for working capital tightens firms’ hired prepaid inputs, production, and capacity utilization. Furthermore, firms with more uncertain working capital will choose a lower level of production. These results are especially scaled up, when firms face financial constraints. -
Publication
Algeria–Mali Trade: The Normality of Informality
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-07-03)This paper estimates the volume of informal trade between Algeria and Mali and analyzes its determinants and mechanisms, using a multi-pronged methodology. In addition to mirror statistics analysis, we provide evidence of the importance of informal trade, drawing on satellite images and surveys with informal traders in Mali and Algeria. We estimate that the weekly turnover of informal trade fell from approximately US$2 million in 2011 to US$0.74 million in 2014, but that trade continues to play a crucial role in the economies of northern Mali and southern Algeria. We also show that official trade statistics are meaningless in this context because they capture less than 3% of total trade. Meanwhile, profit margins of 20–30% on informal trade help to explain the relative prosperity of northern Mali. Informal trade probably plays a strong role in poverty reduction, especially in the Kidal region.