C. Journal articles published externally
2,064 items available
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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Publication
Estimating the Welfare Costs of Reforming the Iraq Public Distribution System: A Mixed Demand Approach
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Through three decades of conflict, food rations delivered through the public distribution system (PDS) have remained the largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding the system’s import dependence, economic distortions, and unsustainable fiscal burden. The oil price decline of mid-2014 and recent efforts to rebuild and recover have put PDS reform back on the agenda. The government needs to find an effective way to deliver broad benefits from a narrow economic base reliant on oil. The study described here adopts a mixed demand approach to analyzing household consumption patterns for the purpose of assessing plausible reform scenarios and estimating the direction and scale of the associated welfare costs and transfers. It finds that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poor. The results suggest that any one-shot reform will have sizeable adverse welfare impacts and will need to be preceded by a well-targeted compensation mechanism. To keep welfare constant, subsidy removal in urban areas, for example, would require the poorest and richest households to be compensated for, respectively, 74 per cent and nearly 40 per cent of their PDS expenditures. -
Publication
How to Target Households in Adaptive Social Protection Systems? Evidence from Humanitarian and Development Approaches in Niger
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)The methods used to identify the beneficiaries of programs aiming to address persistent poverty and shocks are subject to frequent policy debates. Relying on panel data from Niger, this report simulates the performance of various targeting methods that are widely used by development and humanitarian actors. The methods include proxy-means testing (PMT), household economy analysis (HEA), geographical targeting, and combined methods. Results show that PMT performs more effectively in identifying persistently poor households, while HEA shows superior performance in identifying transiently food insecure households. Geographical targeting is particularly efficient in responding to food crises, which tend to be largely covariate. Combinations of geographical, PMT, and HEA approaches may be used as part of an efficient and scalable adaptive social protection system. Results motivate the consolidation of data across programs, which can support the application of alternative targeting methods tailored to program-specific objectives. -
Publication
Social Protection in Contexts of Fragility and Forced Displacement: Introduction to a Special Issue
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Effective social protection is increasingly as essential to supporting affected populations in situations of protracted instability and displacement. Despite the growing use of social protection in these settings, there is comparatively little rigorous research on what works, for whom, and why. This special issue contributes by adding seven high-quality studies that raise substantially our understanding of the role of social protection in fragile contexts and in settings of forced displacement and migration. Together, these studies fill knowledge gaps, help support informed decision-making by policy-makers and practitioners, and demonstrate that impact evaluation and the analysis of social protection in challenging humanitarian settings are possible. The studies provide evidence that design choices in implementation, such as which population to target, choice of transfer modality or which messages are delivered with programs, can make a substantial difference in the realization of positive benefits among vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the findings of the studies underline the relevance of tailoring program components to populations, which may benefit more or less from traditional program implementation models. -
Publication
Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard: Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria
(Elsevier, 2019-11)We compare the absolute and relative performance of three approaches to predicting outcomes for entrants in a business plan competition in Nigeria: Business plan scores from judges, simple ad hoc prediction models used by researchers, and machine learning approaches. We find that i) business plan scores from judges are uncorrelated with business survival, employment, sales, or profits three years later; ii) a few key characteristics of entrepreneurs such as gender, age, ability, and business sector do have some predictive power for future outcomes; iii) modern machine learning methods do not offer noticeable improvements; iv) the overall predictive power of all approaches is very low, highlighting the fundamental difficulty of picking competition winners. -
Publication
Competing Priorities: Women’s Microenterprises and Household Relationships
(Elsevier, 2019-09)Recent studies have suggested that women’s business decisions are influenced by members of their household, especially their spouse, and that these intrahousehold dynamics contribute to gender gaps in entrepreneurship outcomes. This in-depth qualitative study among microentrepreneurs in urban Ghana sought to understand the connections between women’s businesses and their households’ management of economic resources. The findings show that women’s business decisions are influenced by: 1) a desire to reinforce their partner’s responsibilities as a primary provider; 2) attempts to fulfil normative expectations of meeting the daily basic-needs of the family; and 3) a need to prepare for long-term security. To reinforce their husband’s responsibilities as a provider, women hid income and savings, and sometimes explicitly limited business growth. To ensure their ability to smooth household consumption and respond to emergencies, women prioritized savings over business investment. And, to plan for their long-term security, women opted for cautious business investment, instead maintaining pressure on their partner to meet current needs and investing in children and property for the future. Previous studies document gender differences in microenterprise business management. This research builds on those studies by examining how intrahousehold inequalities affect women’s business decisions. The findings demonstrate the contextual importance of social relations for understanding women’s business decisions. More broadly, the findings illustrate that interpersonal interactions concerning the management of economic resources are an integral part of how household members negotiate their rights and responsibilities in relation to each other. -
Publication
The Devil is in the Detail: Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Africa in the Last Two Decades
(Oxford University Press, 2019-08)The present paper, starting from evidence of low growth-to-poverty elasticity characterizing Africa, purports to identify the distributional changes that limited the pro-poor impact of the last two decades’ growth. Distributional changes that went undetected by standard inequality measures were not showing a clear pattern of inequality on the continent. By applying a new decomposition technique based on a non-parametric method—the ‘relative distribution’—we found a clear distributional pattern affecting almost all analysed countries. Nineteen out twenty four countries experienced a significant increase in polarization, particularly in the lower tail of the distribution, and this distributional change lowered the pro-poor impact of growth substantially. Without this unfavorable redistribution, poverty could have decreased in these countries by an additional five percentage points. -
Publication
Firm Productivity and Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from Egyptian Data
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-05-10)This paper attempts to shed the light on the nexus between firms’ productivity and economies of agglomeration in Egypt. Using a large dataset of firms in 342 firms’ four-digit activities in 27 regions (62,108 firms), we introduce three measures of agglomeration which are urbanization or firm diversification measured by the number of firms by governorate, localization and specialization measured by the average productivity by governorate and sector (generating externalities and knowledge spillovers) and finally competition measured by the number of firm operating in the same governorate and the same sector. We find strong evidence for the existence of agglomeration in Egypt after controlling for firm age, location, economic activity and legal status. In the Egyptian context, productivity spillovers gained from agglomeration measures outweighed the negative effects of competition implied by congestion. The latter is chiefly due to the lack of good infrastructure. When regressions are run by firm size, location and activity, our main findings show first that micro and small firms are more likely to benefit from localization and diversification compared to medium and large firms. Service firms benefit more from high level of diversification while manufacturing firms gain more benefits from knowledge spillovers and specialization in Egypt. -
Publication
Spillover Effects of Tobacco Farms on the Labor Supply, Education, and Health of Children: Evidence from Malawi
(Oxford University Press, 2019-04-24)Using data from the Living Standards Measurement Study in Malawi, we examine the spillover effects of tobacco farms on children’s labor supply, education, and health. To address potential endogeneity, the share of tobacco farms in a community is instrumented by the change in tobacco buyers following termination of the intermediate buyer system. We find that, as tobacco cultivation is labor-intensive, children in communities with more tobacco growers spend more time as casual laborers and are less likely to advance to the next grade. Adverse health effects, measured by the likelihood of suffering from illnesses related to green tobacco sickness, are estimated to be larger than previously documented. This affects not only “working-age” children but also children too young to work on tobacco farms. Moreover, exposure to large-scale tobacco cultivation is estimated to reduce the height-for-age z-score of children aged 6–60 months. These findings highlight the importance of raising awareness and taking measures to protect children against green tobacco. -
Publication
How Costly Are Labor Gender Gaps? Estimates by Age Group for the Balkans and Turkey
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-01-16)In this article we use survey data from the Balkan countries and Turkey to document the presence of gender gaps in the labor market and examine its economic consequences in terms of aggregate income per capita. We first show that the age of women in the labor force, as well as in the categories of employers and self-employed, are clearly below the corresponding figures for men. These gender inequalities display a slightly negative time trend and are present in all age groups, with the middle-age group displaying the lowest inequality in terms of labor force participation but the largest inequality in terms of employers share. Using a theoretical framework we calculate that, on average, the loss associated with these gaps is about 20% of income per capita. Taking into account that the weight of each age group in the total population is different, we find that the aggregate costs associated with each age group are quite similar on average. -
Publication
Constraints or Complaints? Business Climate and Firm Performance Perceptions in Uganda
(Taylor and Francis, 2019)This paper identifies the business constraints that are most binding for firm performance. Using panel methods on novel quarterly Ugandan business climate data, we exploit perceived changes in business climate constraints to account for changes in firm performance. Not all identified constraints are binding for firm performance. Macroeconomic instability, demand stability, access to finance, corruption/bribery, and weather variability are found to be binding constraints. Firms’ expectations about future performance outcomes are associated with current perceptions about these constraints, alleviating endogeneity concerns to some extent. While taxation constraints are usually highly ranked, we do not find evidence linking them to firm performance.