C. Journal articles published externally
2,064 items available
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
Items in this collection
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Publication
Transnational Terrorist Recruitment: Evidence from Daesh Personnel Records
(MIT Press, 2022-01-25)Global terrorist organizations attract radicalized individuals across borders and constitute a threat for both sending and receiving countries. We use unique personnel records from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) to show that unemployment in sending countries is associated with the number of transnational terrorist recruits from these countries. The relationship is spatially heterogeneous, which is most plausibly attributable to travel costs. We argue that poor labor market opportunities generally push more individuals to join terrorist organizations, but at the same time limit their ability to do so when longer travel distances imply higher migration costs. -
Publication
Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05)This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. -
Publication
Introduction to the Special Issue “Political economic perspectives of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict”
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-10-06)The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the world’s most protracted contemporary conflict and one which has gained international prominence throughout the years. As a result of the Six Days War in 1967, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip fell under Israeli control. The conflict has evolved through ebbs and flows of violence including two Palestinian uprising against Israeli control (the First and Second Intifada). These have led to tens of thousands of Palestinian and thousands of Israeli victims. There is a growing theoretical and empirical literature analyzing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this review, we discuss a selected number of studies that are most closely related to the topics covered by the articles in this special issue. -
Publication
Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Oil Security: Using Remote Sensing to Estimate Oil Production of the Islamic State
(Elsevier, 2018-04-30)As the world’s most traded commodity, oil production is typically well monitored and analyzed. It also has established links to geopolitics, international relations, and security. Despite this attention, the illicit production, refining, and trade of oil and derivative products occur all over the world and provide significant revenues outside of the oversight and regulation of governments. A prominent manifestation of this phenomenon is how terrorist and insurgent organizations—including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh—use oil as a revenue source. Understanding the spatial and temporal variation in production can help determine the scale of operations, technical capacity, and revenue streams. This information, in turn, can inform both security and reconstruction strategies. To this end, we use satellite multi-spectral imaging and ground-truth pre-war output data to effectively construct a real-time census of oil production in areas controlled by the ISIL terrorist group. More broadly, remotely measuring the activity of extractive industries in conflict-affected areas without reliable administrative data can support a broad range of public policy and decisions and military operations. -
Publication
Optimal Targeting Under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context
(Elsevier, 2018-01-05)The paper uses Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and related indexes to determine the optimal targeting strategy of a food voucher program for refugees. Estimations focus on the 2014 food voucher administered by the World Food Program to Syrian refugees in Jordan using data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The paper shows how to use ROC curves to optimize targeting using coverage rates, budgets, or poverty lines as guiding principles to increase the overall efficiency of a program. As humanitarian organizations operate under increasing budget constraints and increasing demands for efficiency, the proposed approach addresses both concerns. -
Publication
All in the Family: State Capture in Tunisia
(Elsevier, 2017-01)We examine the relationship between entry regulation and the business interests of former President Ben Ali’s family using firm-level data from Tunisia. Connected firms account for a disproportionate share of aggregate employment, output and profits, especially in sectors subject to authorization and restrictions on FDI. Quantile regressions show that profit and market share premia from being connected increase along the firm-size distribution, especially in highly regulated sectors. These patterns are partly explained by Ben Ali’s relatives sorting into the most profitable sectors. The market shares of connected firms are positively correlated with exit and concentration rates in highly regulated sectors. Although causality is difficult to establish, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Ben Ali clan abused entry regulation for private gain at the expense of reduced competition. -
Publication
Book Review: The Middle East Economies in Times of Transition
(Taylor and Francis, 2016-09-02)In 2011, when the organizers of the International Economics Association decided to hold their 2014 World Congress in Jordan, they did not anticipate that the Middle East would be the center of one of the most important economic, political and social transitions of our time. The Arab Spring caught much of the world by surprise. Its aftermath has led to political unrest, violent conflict and deteriorating economic performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The organizers therefore asked Ishac Diwan and Ahmed Galal, two leading economists and experts on the region, to put together an edited volume from the papers at the World Congress relevant to the transition in the Middle East. This volume collects some of those papers, as well as a few others, to explain the factors that led to the Arab Spring and to anticipate some of its consequences. It provides a multidisciplinary “snapshot” of research on the transitions in MENA.