Journal articles published externally

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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.

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How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?

(Springer Nature, 2022-03-02) Lakner, Christoph ; Gerszon Mahler, Daniel ; Negre, Mario ; Prydz, Espen Beer

The goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and working towards a more equal distribution of incomes are part of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Using data from 166 countries comprising 97.5 percent of the world’s population, we simulate scenarios for global poverty from 2019 to 2030 under various assumptions about growth and inequality. We use different assumptions about growth incidence curves to model changes in inequality and rely on a machine-learning algorithm called model-based recursive partitioning to model how growth in GDP is passed through to growth as observed in household surveys. When holding within-country inequality unchanged and letting GDP per capita grow according to World Bank forecasts and historically observed growth rates, our simulations suggest that the number of extreme poor (living on less than 1.90 dollars/day) will remain above 600 million in 2030, resulting in a global extreme poverty rate of 7.4 percent. If the Gini index in each country decreases by 1 percent per year, the global poverty rate could reduce to around 6.3 percent in 2030, equivalent to 89 million fewer people living in extreme poverty. Reducing each country’s Gini index by 1 percent per year has a larger impact on global poverty than increasing each country’s annual growth 1 percentage point above forecasts. We also study the impact of COVID-19 on poverty and find that the pandemic may have driven around 60 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. If the pandemic increased the Gini index by 2 percent in all countries, then more than 90 million may have been driven into extreme poverty in 2020.
Factors Associated with Educational and Career Aspirations of Young Women and Girls in Sierra Leone

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-09-05) Allmang, Skye ; Rozhenkova, Veronika ; Khakshi, James Ward ; Raza, Wameq ; Heymann, Jody

Empirical data on the aspirations of young women and girls in post-conflict settings are scarce. This article analyses the factors associated with the educational and career aspirations of 2,473 young women and girls in Sierra Leone. Findings indicated that over three-quarters of our sample aspired to continue their studies up to the university level, and two-thirds aspired to obtain a formal sector job requiring an education. These findings are important for discussions of aid which can accelerate economic advances and opportunities within advanced economies for both women and men.
An Individual-Based Index of Multidimensional Poverty for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-08-27) Burchi, Francesco ; Espinoza-Delgado, Jose ; Montenegro, Claudio E. ; Rippin, Nicole

This paper proposes a new index of multidimensional poverty, called the Global Correlation Sensitive Poverty Index (G-CSPI), which has three interesting features. First, it encompasses three dimensions: decent work, education and access to drinking water and sanitation, which largely overlap with the list of ideal dimensions obtained by expanding the Constitutional Approach, although it does not include direct health measures. Second, it uses a distribution-sensitive measure that can also be decomposed into the three poverty components: incidence, intensity and inequality. Finally, the G-CSPI is an individual-based, rather than household-based index, although restricted to individuals 15–65 years of age. It is thus able to detect intra-household differences in poverty among members within that age-range. To have a full picture of multidimensional poverty at the country level, it should then be complemented by specific poverty measures for children and the elderly. Being centered on individuals and sensitive to inequality, the G-CSPI is coherent with the overarching principle of the 2030 Agenda “leaving no one behind”. Using recent estimates of the G-CSPI for 104 countries, the empirical analysis reveals that the index is highly robust to different specifications, and that, as expected, fragile countries experience the largest levels of poverty.
Assessing Gender Gaps in Employment and Earnings in Africa: The Case of Eswatini

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07) Brixiova Schwidrowski, Zuzana ; Imai, Susumu ; Kangoye, Thierry ; Yameogo, Nadege Desiree

Persistent gender gaps characterize labor markets in many African countries. Utilizing Eswatini’s first three labor market surveys (conducted in 2007, 2010, and 2013), this paper provides first systematic evidence on the country’s gender gaps in employment and earnings. We find that women have notably lower employment rates and earnings than men, even though the global financial crisis had a less negative impact on women than it had on men. Both unadjusted and unexplained gender earnings gaps are higher in self-employment than in wage employment. Tertiary education and urban location account for a large part of the gender earnings gap and mitigate high female propensity to self-employment. Our findings suggest that policies supporting female higher education and rural-urban mobility could reduce persistent inequalities in Eswatini’s labor market outcomes as well as in other middle-income countries in southern Africa.
Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply

(Elsevier, 2020-08) Fukase, Emiko ; Martin, Will

In recent years, developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables. Using a resource-based measure of food production and consumption that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with animal-based foods, this article finds per capita demand growth to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario to 2050 from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which assumes continued income convergence, the article finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be about a third greater than under a hypothetical scenario of all countries growing at the same rate (78 percent). As convergence increases the growth of food supply by less than demand, it appears to be a driver of upward pressure on world food prices.
Is It Really Possible for Countries to Simultaneously Grow and Reduce Poverty and Inequality? Going Beyond Global Narratives

(Taylor and Francis, 2020-06) Cuesta, Jose ; Negre, Mario ; Revenga, Ana ; Silva-Jauregui, Carlos

Global narratives underscore that economic growth can often coincide with reductions in poverty and inequality. However, the experiences of several countries over recent decades confirm that inequality can widen or narrow in response to policy choices and independent of economic growth. This paper analyses five country cases, Brazil, Cambodia, Mali, Peru and Tanzania. These countries are the most successful in reducing inequality and poverty while growing robustly for at least a decade since the early 2000 s. The paper assesses how good macroeconomic management, sectoral reform, the strengthening of safety nets, responses to external shocks, and initial conditions all chip away at inequality and support broad growth. Sustained and robust economic growth with strong poverty and inequality reductions are possible across very different contexts and policy choices. The comparative analysis also identifies common building blocks toward success and warns that hard-earned achievements can be easily overturned.
How Does Poverty Differ among Refugees? Taking a Gender Lens to the Data on Syrian Refugees in Jordan

(Taylor and Francis, 2020-05-12) Hanmer, Lucia ; Rubiano, Eliana ; Santamaria, Julieth ; Arango, Diana J.

Many reports document the hardships experienced by refugees, highlighting that women and children are a highly vulnerable group. However, empirical analysis of how gender inequality impacts poverty among refugees is limited. We combine registration data for Syrian refugees in Jordan collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees with data from its Home Visit surveys to analyze income poverty rates among refugee households. We use an approach that captures the disruption to household structures that results from displacement to evaluate the poverty impacts, comparing refugee households with male and female principal applicants (PAs). We find that distinguishing between different types of principal applicant households is important. Half of the female PAs for nonnuclear households live below the poverty line compared to only one-fifth of male PAs for nonnuclear household. PAs who are widows and widowers also face high poverty risks. Households that have formed because of the unpredictable dynamics of forced displacement, such as unaccompanied children and single caregivers, emerge as extremely vulnerable groups. We show that differences in household composition and individual attributes of male and female PAs are not the only factors driving increased poverty risk. Gender-specific barriers which prevent women accessing labor markets are also a factor. Our findings show that gender inequality amplifies the poverty experienced by a significant number of refugees. Our approach can be used to help policy-makers design more effective programs of assistance and find durable solutions for displaced populations.
Intra-Household Labour Allocation, Migration, and Remittances in Rural El Salvador

(Taylor and Francis, 2020-05) Acosta, Pablo

Migration can affect labor participation decisions back home, either by stimulating work to replace foregone labor, or reducing it through the role of remittances. Using evidence from a rural panel for El Salvador with a comprehensive module on agricultural income shocks, this study finds that migration and remittances generate only minor labor reallocation effects within households. Contradicting previous evidence based on cross section data, no impact is registered for off-farm labor supply. However, remittances and migration tend to increase female participation and hours worked in agricultural activities, and reduce time dedicated to off-farm and domestic activities. No major effects are found on self-employment.
Measuring Women's Agency

(Taylor and Francis, 2020-03) Donald, Aletheia ; Koolwal, Gayatri ; Annan, Jeannie ; Goldstein, Markus

Improving women’s agency, namely their ability to define goals and act on them, is crucial for advancing gender equality and the empowerment of women. Yet, existing frameworks for measuring women’s agency – both disorganized and partial – provide a fragmented understanding of the constraints women face in exercising their agency, thus restricting the design of reliable and valid interventions and evaluation of their impact. This paper proposes a multidisciplinary framework for capturing individual agency, containing three critical dimensions: goal setting, perceived control and ability to initiate action toward goals (“sense of agency”), and acting on goals. For each dimension, the paper reviews existing measurement approaches and what is known about their relative quality. The study concludes by highlighting that future research to improve the measurement of women’s agency should prioritize incorporating different contexts, age groups, and decision-making areas to ensure programming and policies are meaningful to the lives of women.
We Forgot the Middle Class! Inequality Underestimation in a Changing Sub-Saharan Africa

(Springer Nature, 2020-01-11) Clementi, F. ; Dabalen, A.L. ; Molini, V. ; Schettino, F.

The creation of national middle classes and the changes in consumption patterns in many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries suggest reconsidering the way welfare and consequently inequality is typically measured. Using only consumption to measure welfare can lead to an important loss of information regarding the real welfare of the top 10–20% of the welfare distribution that is generally referred as “middle class” in these countries. This paper proposes a method capable of correcting the middle-class part of the consumption distribution using information coming from the income distribution of the same surveys. Results from 6 SSA countries indicate an increase of about 20% in the Gini index.