C. Journal articles published externally
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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Publication
Relative Measures of Genocide Mortality: Benefits and Methodological Considerations of Using Siblings' Survival Data
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-31)When studying events such as the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda, for many researchers the first order question seems to be to find the best available data and methods to estimate the death toll, i.e. to provide a number of deaths in absolute terms. This makes sense since the staggering number of victims over a very short period is one of the most shocking – and defining – features of such an historical event. This short note argues that while looking for an absolute death toll number is certainly an important and worthwhile research exercise, analyzing relative mortality numbers also provides valuable insights that might not be available when focusing on absolute numbers. By relative mortality I mean comparing mortality across different population segments such as by gender, by age group or socioeconomic categories (e.g. education levels, urban/rural background). Specifically, I will use the examples of the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia (1975-1978) and the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda to illustrate this argument and will rely on earlier studies to show how the sibling mortality schedule – a module collecting information about the date of birth, the sex and if relevant the date of death of all siblings of the respondent – contained in most of the well-known and commonly used Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) can be exploited to obtain reasonable and useful estimates of relative mortality. -
Publication
Estimating the Welfare Costs of Reforming the Iraq Public Distribution System: A Mixed Demand Approach
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Through three decades of conflict, food rations delivered through the public distribution system (PDS) have remained the largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding the system’s import dependence, economic distortions, and unsustainable fiscal burden. The oil price decline of mid-2014 and recent efforts to rebuild and recover have put PDS reform back on the agenda. The government needs to find an effective way to deliver broad benefits from a narrow economic base reliant on oil. The study described here adopts a mixed demand approach to analyzing household consumption patterns for the purpose of assessing plausible reform scenarios and estimating the direction and scale of the associated welfare costs and transfers. It finds that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poor. The results suggest that any one-shot reform will have sizeable adverse welfare impacts and will need to be preceded by a well-targeted compensation mechanism. To keep welfare constant, subsidy removal in urban areas, for example, would require the poorest and richest households to be compensated for, respectively, 74 per cent and nearly 40 per cent of their PDS expenditures. -
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How to Target Households in Adaptive Social Protection Systems? Evidence from Humanitarian and Development Approaches in Niger
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)The methods used to identify the beneficiaries of programs aiming to address persistent poverty and shocks are subject to frequent policy debates. Relying on panel data from Niger, this report simulates the performance of various targeting methods that are widely used by development and humanitarian actors. The methods include proxy-means testing (PMT), household economy analysis (HEA), geographical targeting, and combined methods. Results show that PMT performs more effectively in identifying persistently poor households, while HEA shows superior performance in identifying transiently food insecure households. Geographical targeting is particularly efficient in responding to food crises, which tend to be largely covariate. Combinations of geographical, PMT, and HEA approaches may be used as part of an efficient and scalable adaptive social protection system. Results motivate the consolidation of data across programs, which can support the application of alternative targeting methods tailored to program-specific objectives. -
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Social Protection in Contexts of Fragility and Forced Displacement: Introduction to a Special Issue
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Effective social protection is increasingly as essential to supporting affected populations in situations of protracted instability and displacement. Despite the growing use of social protection in these settings, there is comparatively little rigorous research on what works, for whom, and why. This special issue contributes by adding seven high-quality studies that raise substantially our understanding of the role of social protection in fragile contexts and in settings of forced displacement and migration. Together, these studies fill knowledge gaps, help support informed decision-making by policy-makers and practitioners, and demonstrate that impact evaluation and the analysis of social protection in challenging humanitarian settings are possible. The studies provide evidence that design choices in implementation, such as which population to target, choice of transfer modality or which messages are delivered with programs, can make a substantial difference in the realization of positive benefits among vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the findings of the studies underline the relevance of tailoring program components to populations, which may benefit more or less from traditional program implementation models. -
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Challenges and Opportunities in the Continuity of Care for Hypertension: A Mixed-Methods Study Embedded in a Primary Health Care Intervention in Tajikistan
(Springer Nature, 2019-12-03)Hypertension, a significant risk factor for ischemic heart disease and other chronic conditions, is the third-highest cause of death and disability in Tajikistan. Thus, ensuring the early detection and appropriate management of hypertension is a core element of strategies to improve population health in Tajikistan. For a strategy to be successful, it should be informed by the causes of gaps in service delivery and feasible solutions to these challenges. The objective of this study was to undertake a systematic assessment of hypertension case detection and retention in care within Tajikistan’s primary health care system, and to identify challenges and appropriate solutions. We review the results for the case detection stage of the cascade of care, which had the most significant gaps. Of the half a million people with hypertension in Khatlon and Sogd Oblasts (administrative regions), about 10% have been diagnosed in Khatlon and only 5% in Sogd. Barriers to case detection include misinformation about hypertension, ambiguous protocols, and limited delivery capacity. Solutions identified to these challenges were mobilizing faith-based organizations, scaling up screening through health caravans, task-shifting to increase provider supply, and introducing job aids for providers. Translating findings on discontinuities in care for hypertension and other chronic diseases to actionable policy insights can be facilitated by collaboration with local stakeholders, triangulation of data sources, and identifying the intersection between the feasible and the effective in defining solutions to service delivery challenges. -
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Quality of Care for Children with Severe Disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(Springer Nature, 2019-12)Despite the almost universal adoption of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of sick children under the age of five in low- and middle-income countries, child mortality remains high in many settings. One possible explanation of the continued high mortality burden is lack of compliance with diagnostic and treatment protocols. We test this hypothesis in a sample of children with severe illness in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). -
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Implications of Demographic, Religious, and Enrollment Trends for the Footprint of Faith-Based Schools Globally
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-11-25)Faith-based schools play an important role today in the provision of education globally. Are the schools likely to continue to play such a role in the future? If so, where is that role likely to be most prominent? This paper considers these questions on the basis of long-term demographic, religious, and school enrollment trends. The trends suggest that enrollment in faith-based schools will continue to grow rapidly, as has been the case over the last few decades. But there will also be a fundamental shift, with a rising concentration of students in faith-based schools located in Africa. This may have implications given the learning crisis affecting the continent. -
Publication
Symposium on Catholic Schools and the Changing Global Landscape for Faith-Based Education: An Introduction
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-11-25)Despite the fact that faith-based schools serve tens of millions of students (the estimate for the Catholic Church is at 62 million students enrolled in K12 schools globally in 2016), the role of faith-based schools remains largely ignored in policy discussions. The articles and essays in this symposium aim to inform current debates on the role of faith-based schools, and particularly Catholic schools. The focus on Catholic schools is driven by the fact that they are the largest network of faith-based schools globally. It is clear however that many issues faced by Catholic schools are also faced by other faith-based schools. -
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Measuring the Contribution of Faith-Based Schools to Human Capital Wealth: Estimates for the Catholic Church
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-11-25)This paper provides estimates of the contribution of faith-based schools to human capital wealth using recent World Bank data. Wealth is the assets base that enables nations to generate future income. Estimates suggest that human capital wealth accounts for two thirds of global wealth, a much larger proportion than natural capital and produced capital. This paper’s analysis relies on an assessment of the share of human capital wealth attributed to educational attainment, and the share of contribution of Catholic schools to educational attainment. The analysis suggests that Catholic schools contribute at least US$ 12 trillion to the changing wealth of nations. -
Publication
Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard: Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria
(Elsevier, 2019-11)We compare the absolute and relative performance of three approaches to predicting outcomes for entrants in a business plan competition in Nigeria: Business plan scores from judges, simple ad hoc prediction models used by researchers, and machine learning approaches. We find that i) business plan scores from judges are uncorrelated with business survival, employment, sales, or profits three years later; ii) a few key characteristics of entrepreneurs such as gender, age, ability, and business sector do have some predictive power for future outcomes; iii) modern machine learning methods do not offer noticeable improvements; iv) the overall predictive power of all approaches is very low, highlighting the fundamental difficulty of picking competition winners.