C. Journal articles published externally
2,051 items available
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These are journal articles by World Bank authors published externally.
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Publication
The Political Economy of Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement: A Comparative Analysis of Mexico and Uganda
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-03-11)As part of the 2030 Agenda, much effort has been exerted in comparing multidimensional child poverty measures both technically and conceptually. Yet, few countries have adopted and used any of these measures in policymaking. This paper explores the reasons for this absence from a political economy perspective. It develops an innovative political economy framework for poverty measurement and a hypothesis whereby a country will only produce and use reliable and sustainable multidimensional child poverty (MDCP) measures if and only if three conditions coalesce: consensus, capacity and polity. We explore this framework with two relevant case studies, Mexico and Uganda. Both countries satisfy the capacity condition required to measure MDCP but only Mexico satisfies the other two conditions. Our proposed political economy framework is normatively relevant because it identifies the conditions that need to change across multiple contexts before the effective adoption and use of an MDCP measure becomes more likely. -
Publication
Can Wage Subsidies Boost Employment in the Wake of an Economic Crisis? Evidence from Mexico
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-01-31)This paper measures the employment effect of a program in Mexico that granted firms wage subsidies during the recent economic crisis. I use monthly administrative data at the industry level, along with Euclidean distance matching to construct groups of eligible and ineligible durable goods manufacturing industries that display statistically identical preprogram trends in employment. Difference-in-difference results show a positive but not statistically significant effect of the wage subsidies on employment during the program’s eight-month duration. The size of the effect increases to 18 per cent after the program ended and the results indicate that employment after the program recovered faster in eligible industries than in ineligible industries. Additional analysis suggests that the program did not incentivize firms to retain workers with job-specific skills as originally intended. Instead, the payment of subsidy funds, which only happened towards the end of the program, seems to have provided liquidity for hiring back workers. -
Publication
Supporting Pathways to Prosperity in Forest Landscapes – A PRIME Framework
(Elsevier, 2019-08-07)We develop a framework to conceptualize the multiple ways forests contribute to poverty reduction and inform development interventions in forest landscapes. We identify five key strategies for reducing poverty in forest landscapes: a) improvements in productivity (P) of forest land and labor; b) governance reform to strengthen community, household and women’s rights (R) over forests and land; c) investments (I) in institutions, infrastructure and public services that facilitate forest-based entrepreneurship; d) increased access to markets (M) for timber or non-timber forest products; and e) mechanisms that enhance and enable the flow of benefits from forest ecosystem services (E) to the poor. We test the utility of the framework through a review of the forestry portfolio of the World Bank Group, the largest public investor in forestry. Many of these projects include several, but not all, PRIME components. We devote particular attention to forest-related investments in two contrasting countries, Vietnam and Mexico, to examine synergies among the pathways. Results suggest that each strategy in the PRIME framework may play an important role in alleviating poverty, but pronounced impacts may require multiple pathways to be jointly pursued. The PRIME framework can guide research to address knowledge gaps on pathways to prosperity in forest landscapes, serve as an easily remembered checklist for managers, and nudge forest program designers in government and development organizations, who are interested in poverty reduction, to focus on the importance of both a comprehensive framework and synergies across different pathways. -
Publication
Living on the Edge: Vulnerability to Poverty and Public Transfers in Mexico
(Taylor and Francis, 2018)Social policy in Mexico has focused on identifying and supporting households in extreme poverty. Yet, the country has a significant number of households just above the poverty line who are not eligible, by definition, for antipoverty programs and are at risk of falling into poverty in the event of adverse shocks without appropriate social safety nets. This study uses cross-section and longitudinal data to understand better the profile of those ‘vulnerable’ households, their risk exposure, and the extent to which they are covered by public transfers and insurance mechanisms. The analysis shows that until 2010 most social programs, including the few with productive components, barely covered the vulnerable. The study calls for public policies to pay attention to the vulnerable and find a policy mix on the continuum between targeted interventions and universal insurance schemes to serve this income group. -
Publication
Overview of World Bank CCUS Program Activities in Mexico
(Elsevier, 2017-07)This paper describes Phase I of the World Bank Group's (WBG) technical assistance project for the development of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in Mexico. Phase I was concluded in early 2016 and saw the completion of three studies: 1. A pre-feasibility study of a proposed post-combustion capture (PCC) pilot plant at a natural gas-fired combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant in Mexico. 2. A review of state-of-the-art practices related to combining carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) with geological storage of CO2 in Mexico. 3. A study of the development of a CCUS regulatory framework for Mexico. -
Publication
The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study
(Taylor and Francis, 2016-06-30)This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities. -
Publication
Income Inequality and Violent Crime: Evidence from Mexico’s Drug War
(Elsevier, 2016-05)The goal of this paper is to examine the effect of inequality on crime rates in a unique context, Mexico's drug war. The analysis exploits an original dataset containing inequality and crime statistics on more than 2000 Mexican municipalities over a 20-year period. To uncover the causal effect of inequality on crime, we use an instrumental variable for the Gini coefficient that combines the initial income distribution at the municipality level with national trends. Our estimates indicate that a one-point increment in the Gini coefficient between 2007 and 2010 translates into an increase of more that 36% in the number of drug-related homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. The fact that the effect found during the drug war is substantially greater is likely caused by the rise in rents to be extracted through crime and an expansion in the employment opportunities in the illegal sector through the proliferation of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), accompanied by a decline in legal job opportunities and a reduction in the probability of being caught given the resource constraints faced by the law enforcement system. Combined, the latter factors made the expected benefits of criminal activity shift in a socially undesirable direction after 2007. -
Publication
Exploring the Differential Impact of Public Interventions on Indigenous People: Lessons from Mexico’s Conditional Cash Transfers Program
(Taylor and Francis, 2015-09-22)This paper uses experimental panel data for Mexico from 1997 to 2000 in order to test assumptions on the impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on child labor and school attendance, adding to the literature by emphasizing the differential impact on indigenous households. Using data from the CCT program, PROGRESA (later on known as OPORTUNIDADES), we investigate the interaction between child labor, education and indigenous households. While indigenous children had a greater probability of working before the intervention, this probability is reversed after treatment in the program. Indigenous monolingual children also had lower school attainment compared with Spanish-speaking or indigenous bilingual children. After the program, school attainment among indigenous children increased, reducing the gap. In terms of child labor, the larger reduction is in the group of bilingual children. -
Publication
Community Forestry Enterprises in Mexico: Sustainability and Competitiveness
(Taylor and Francis, 2015-06-15)Community-based forest management, such as Community Forest Enterprises (CFEs), has the potential to generate positive socioenvironmental and economic outcomes. We performed a detailed survey of financial and production parameters for 30 of the approximately 992 CFEs in Mexico in order to estimate costs, income, profits, and sustainability of harvest levels for forest management, harvest, and sawmilling. Fourteen of the 30 CFEs harvested more timber than they grew in 2011, suggesting issues with sustainability, but only two of these had harvest far above annual growth, and five of those were only a fraction more than annual growth. All of the 30 CFEs except one made profits in forest management and timber growing. For timber harvesting, 22 of 30 CFEs made profits, but the losses were small for the other CFEs. For the 23 CFEs with sawmills, 18 made profits and five had losses; the greatest returns for the CFEs accrued to those with sawmills for lumber production. On average, the CFEs surveyed had high costs of production relative to other countries, but the CFEs were still profitable in national lumber markets. If Mexico were to begin importing large amounts of lumber from lower cost countries, this could pose a threat to CFE profitability. -
Publication
Cash for Coolers : Evaluating a Large-Scale Appliance Replacement Program in Mexico
(American Economic Association, 2014-11)This paper evaluates a large-scale appliance replacement program in Mexico that from 2009 to 2012 helped 1.9 million households replace their old refrigerators and air conditioners with energy-efficient models. Using household-level billing records from the universe of Mexican residential customers, we find that refrigerator replacement reduces electricity consumption by 8 percent, about one-quarter of what was predicted by ex ante analyses. Moreover, we find that air conditioning replacement actually increases electricity consumption. Overall, we find that the program is an expensive way to reduce externalities from energy use, reducing carbon dioxide emissions at a program cost of over $500 per ton.
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