Other ESW Reports
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Publication South Asia : Pension Schemes for the Formal Sector, Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for Reform(Washington, DC, 2005-01) World BankFor centuries informal arrangements such as intra-family transfers have been the primary source of old-age income support in South Asia. That remains true even today. Current patterns suggest that only around 1 in 10 of South Asia's half a billion workers will enter old age with a pension related to pre-retirement earnings. Pension schemes in South Asia cover small shares of the population, concentrated in the formal sector (table 1). Retirement income plans for the formal sector have for the most part performed poorly-both for their participants and for the economy. But while several countries in the region are exploring or already introducing reforms of civil service pension schemes, the performance of retirement income schemes available to the rest of the formal sector has received far less attention. The policy framework for most of these programs has barely changed since they were created, in some cases nearly half a century ago. Moreover, these schemes involve even more complex political economy issues, because governments have often used their funded (or partially funded) structures to address fiscal gaps. Now is a critical time to consider more broadly the problems affecting retirement income schemes for the formal sector. The two defined benefit programs in India and Pakistan, for example, have not yet matured. As time passes, future pension promises will become more deeply entrenched, making reform even more challenging. And as funded plans continue to grow, there is a risk of further misallocation of savings. Perhaps more important, there are encouraging signs of economic growth in the region and thus good possibilities for expanding the coverage of these programs. But even as a growing number of younger workers join the formal labor market and thus formal retirement schemes, urbanization is likely to weaken traditional informal arrangements for the elderly, including intra-family transfers. Strengthening retirement income schemes for the formal sector will help the region better prepare for the demographic change occurring over the next half century. This report seeks to provide a framework for improving the performance of pension schemes for the formal sector. After an introduction, Chapter 2 examines civil service pension schemes, chapter 3 focuses on mandatory private sector schemes, chapter 3 discusses the expansion of voluntary retirement savings arrangements, and chapter 5 is directed toward improving the business environment for retirement savings schemes. Chapter 6 presents conclusions.Publication Indonesia : Selected Fiscal Issues in a New Era(Washington, DC, 2003-02-14) World BankDespite the substantial progress in managing its fiscal challenges post-1997 financial crisis, Indonesia's risks to the budget have not disappeared, though the Government continues to be committed to fiscal consolidation. While debt sustainability is improving, the budget remains vulnerable to shocks, and, large non-discretionary spending (interest payments, transfers to the regions, personnel spending) still constrain the use of fiscal policy for macroeconomic stabilization, and social risk protection, and, as the fiscal situation improves, and decentralization proceeds, a rethinking of resource allocation becomes necessary. This report assesses Indonesia's progress in dealing with challenges that have altered the fiscal system since the crisis, and reviews options for fiscal consolidation, as well as sectoral issues in the new decentralized environment, including public expenditure management reforms. Suggestions include an increased revenue mobilization to make the budget more risk proof, and an improved tax administration, rather than streamlining the tax structure alone, while the Government's decision to eliminate the fuel subsidy remains critical for fiscal consolidation (which has little social implications). Moreover, the large interest payments burden incurred during the crisis, is crowding out development spending, and similarly, increased transfers to local governments are limiting discretionary spending (which could be accompanied by a decrease in central development spending in areas of regional responsibilities). A refinement of the budget management system is necessary, where the Finance Law would be instrumental in establishing accountability between the Executive, and Parliament.Publication Mexico - Fiscal Sustainability (Vol. 1 of 2) : Executive Summary(Washington, DC, 2001-06-13) World BankThe study reviews the stabilization efforts, and successes that preceded, and have underpinned Mexico's sweeping market-oriented structural reforms since the late 1980s, anchored in strong fiscal adjustment. It seeks to support the Government's efforts, and provides a body of technical analysis, by: correcting fiscal trends for various business-cycle effects; building a simulation model to assess the sensitivity of the fiscal budget to exogenous shocks under structural scenarios; estimating the direct, and indirect potential impact on the fiscal accounts of closing public infrastructure gaps, and funding contingent liabilities; and, consolidating the financial accounts of the main public sector institutions to assess sustainability of their aggregate debt path. Following a brief review on fiscal issues, the report focuses on selected sources of fiscal instability. Chapter I questions the role of fiscal policy in determining output; the responsiveness of the fiscal policy to the business cycle; and, the "persistence" of fiscal policy vs. financing needs, implying the fiscal policy lacks a design that makes it a stabilizing feature of the economy. Chapters II and III investigate the impacts of major exogenous shocks, and provide estimates of the potential payoffs from increased investment in public infrastructure, calculating the optimal infrastructure stocks implied by the elasticity estimates. Chapter IV addresses the measurement of contingent liabilities, within the traditional budget accounting framework, while Chapter V provides estimates of the debt stock at the state level, suggesting disturbing trends in the size, and concentration of the debt are developing, and, sobering evidence on the health of the sub-national pension systems suggest a large percentage of these are either in actuarial deficit, or will be by 2001.Publication Mexico - Fiscal Sustainability (Vol. 2 of 2) : Background Papers(Washington, DC, 2001-06-13) World BankThe study reviews the stabilization efforts, and successes that preceded, and have underpinned Mexico's sweeping market-oriented structural reforms since the late 1980s, anchored in strong fiscal adjustment. It seeks to support the Government's efforts, and provides a body of technical analysis, by: correcting fiscal trends for various business-cycle effects; building a simulation model to assess the sensitivity of the fiscal budget to exogenous shocks under structural scenarios; estimating the direct, and indirect potential impact on the fiscal accounts of closing public infrastructure gaps, and funding contingent liabilities; and, consolidating the financial accounts of the main public sector institutions to assess sustainability of their aggregate debt path. Following a brief review on fiscal issues, the report focuses on selected sources of fiscal instability. Chapter I questions the role of fiscal policy in determining output; the responsiveness of the fiscal policy to the business cycle; and, the "persistence" of fiscal policy vs. financing needs, implying the fiscal policy lacks a design that makes it a stabilizing feature of the economy. Chapters II and III investigate the impacts of major exogenous shocks, and provide estimates of the potential payoffs from increased investment in public infrastructure, calculating the optimal infrastructure stocks implied by the elasticity estimates. Chapter IV addresses the measurement of contingent liabilities, within the traditional budget accounting framework, while Chapter V provides estimates of the debt stock at the state level, suggesting disturbing trends in the size, and concentration of the debt are developing, and, sobering evidence on the health of the sub-national pension systems suggest a large percentage of these are either in actuarial deficit, or will be by 2001.Publication Malaysia : Social and Structural Review Update(Washington, DC, 2001-01-17) World BankA Structural Policy Review (SPR) for Malaysia, prepared in late 1998 and early 1999, was shared with the government of Malaysia in February 1999 and subsequently appeared in gray cover in June 1999 (report no. 18647). The report covered developments in the following six areas: 1) maintaining sound macroeconomic policies and resuming growth; 2) managing the social impact of the crisis; 3) financial sector restructuring; 4) corporate restructuring; 5) strengthening corporate governance and competitiveness; and 6) strengthening public sector management and performance. The SPR examined these short and medium term structural issues as they came to light during the first 14 months of the crisis. At the time the report was written the government had formulated responses to the crisis across a wide variety of policy instruments. Since then, however, events have evolved. The objective of this report is to review the progress made over the last year on structural issues in each of the six areas covered in the original SPR and place these in the context of what is happening a) in other countries in the region managing the same crisis and b) in the discussions of the new international financial architecture. This perspective is used to assess the quality of the current recovery and structural basis for sustained medium term growth and poverty reduction.Publication Repbulic of Tunisia - Private Sector Assessment Update : Meeting the Challenge of Globalization, Volume 3. Annexes(Washington, DC, 2000-12-14) World BankThis private sector assessment (PSA) aims at evaluating conditions for private sector development in Tunisia, how they evolved since 1994, and what are the remaining constraints to private investment. It lays out an elaborate framework, placing private sector development in Tunisia, within the context of global economic integration, while facing increased competition from international competitors (particularly those accessing the European market). The analysis of characteristics, and performance of the private sector reveals that although traditionally, Tunisian exports to Europe have been strong, they are now challenged by competition from Asian, and Central/Eastern European countries, a factor exacerbated by the continued anti-export bias of the domestic economy, in light of other countries' rapid investment incentives, which enable private activity to access the opening European market. Thus, improved competitiveness in the country is a major issue. The report proposes reforms in incentives for private sector growth, and in governance; discusses the need, and measures to expand financial access for small/medium enterprises; and proposes options to lay the foundation of a long-term private sector growth strategy. The report contains three volumes, the Executive Summary, and Proposed Reform Agenda; the Main Report; and, Annexes.Publication Sri Lanka : Recapturing Missed Opportunities(Washington, DC, 2000-06-16) World BankDespite its healthy economic growth, due to good macroeconomic management, and progress in trade liberalization, Sri Lanka's development is perceived to be well below its potential. Certainly, the civil conflict has taken a heavy social, and economic toll on the country's performance, but also governance, and public institutions have weakened, though maintaining a dominance on the financial sector, and utilities, which further exacerbates productivity, having lost opportunities, in terms of growth, and employment. The study examines recent economic, and social performance, indicating the priority challenges the country needs to face, and vulnerabilities to overcome. Resolving the civil conflict should be paramount. In addition, the role of government needs to be not only revised, but reduced, through strong policy reforms, reduce the fiscal deficit, improve the structure of expenditures, and remove policy distortions in the labor market. The privatization process needs to be enhanced, through reduced numbers of public institutions, effective decentralization, and addressing governance weaknesses. The dimensions of poverty are addressed, exploring vulnerability, insecurity, and marginal poverty, suggesting governance issues in poverty programs, and issues for future poverty strategy. Above all, success lies in the full collaboration of all stakeholders.Publication Kyrgyz Republic : Fiscal Sustainability Study(Washington, DC, 2000-06) World BankThe study reviews the macroeconomic developments in the Kyrgyz Republic following the collapse of the Soviet Union, when adjustments were required since output fell by fifty percent between 1991-95, resulting in adverse fiscal consequences, which triggered losses in tax revenues, along with the implicit end of energy subsidies. Part I examines the fiscal, and debt sustainability, proposing a three-fold strategy : efforts for an urgent renewal, are needed to consolidate macroeconomic stability, fundamentally, a significant fiscal adjustment is required; debt relief should be considered, given the large burden, and the need to preserve social expenditures; and, decisive structural reforms are necessary to underpin fiscal adjustment, and increase the efficiency of resource uses. Part II examine these structural issues, particularly the tax system, and the role of the state in infrastructure, and utilities, focusing on accelerating the transformation of public infrastructure, and utility companies, and, improve taxation. The report analyzes this transformation, emphasizing a transparent, and targeted system in the provision of basic services to the poor, through reform policies, and the inclusion of the private sector, critical to reflect cost-effectiveness, and adapt to the requirements of a market economy.Publication Indonesia : Managing Government Debt and its Risks(Washington, DC, 2000-05-22) World BankThe Asian economic crisis has left Indonesia's Government deeply in debt. Government debt has increased from 23 percent of GDP before the crisis to about 83 percent of GDP in early 2000. Nearly three quarters of this increase is domestic debt to pay for bank restructuring. Though very large, the government's debt is manageable. Actions to rebuild investor confidence, keep real interest rates down, and renew growth are necessary. Moreover, actions are also needed in the following areas: 1) generating significant primary fiscal surpluses; 2) containing off-budget losses and counteracting fiscal risks; 3) aggressively selling government assets to reduce government debt; 4) rescheduling existing debt under international rules and seeking the best possible terms for new borrowing; 5) building capacity to manage debt well; and 6) establishing an effective domestic bond market. The report concludes that Indonesia can overcome its government debt burden with renewed growth and prudent fiscal management. But this will not be easily or quickly achieved. Sustained fiscal surpluses and asset sales will be important. So will actions to avoid additional new government debt and strengthen debt management capacity.