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Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-01-01) World BankThe South African financial system has weathered the shock of COVID-19 but faces growing risks emanating from a weak macroeconomic outlook. The pandemic crisis hit South Africa hard, with nonresident capital outflows accelerating and the domestic and global slowdown precipitating a6.4 percent GDP contraction in 2020. A brief period of liquidity stress was managed with new central bank facilities and a lowering of liquidity requirements; and banks proved resilient thanks to sound capital and liquidity buffers. Asset management and pension assets saw falling valuations, but redemption pressures quickly dissipated as markets stabilized. The intensification of the sovereign financial system nexus emerging from the crisis poses risks going forward, and a resurgence of the pandemic could deteriorate asset quality. Banks are resilient in the FSAP’s baseline; however, amedium-term adverse stress scenario would cause a significant decline in capital although most banks would remain sufficiently capitalized. Under stress, banks could face some liquidity gaps, particularly at very short maturities, highlighting the importance of continued close monitoring. The impact of COVID-19 on insurers has thus far been contained, but prudential rules should be strengthened to ensure the measure of capital is sufficiently robust.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019) World Bank Group ; U.K. Department of International DevelopmentThis study responds to a request in March 2018 by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation (MoFEC), to the World Bank and Department for International Development (DfID) to carry out a study of the lowlands with a view to strengthening the resilience of lowland populations to external shocks. This overview synthesizes the nine self-standing chapters of the report that examine different dimensions of poverty, vulnerability, and resilience to shocks in the Ethiopian lowlands. To identify a policy agenda fostering resilience in the lowlands, the report adopts an analytical framework with three main features. First, the livelihood system of the population in the lowlands is examined in detail for the purpose of providing a better understanding of the patterns of behavior observed and the factors that are associated with the prevalence of poverty at a given point in time and changes in poverty over time. Second, a distinction is made between the poverty status of a household at a given point in time and the vulnerability of a household to poverty, which is about the likelihood of a household being poor in the future. Third, emphasis is placed on understanding the different sources of household vulnerability in the lowlands, how these sources of vulnerability have evolved over time, and how the capacity of households to cope with changes has evolved.