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Publication
Four Decades of Poverty Reduction in China: Drivers, Insights for the World, and the Way Ahead
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Regardless of the poverty line used, the speed and scale of China’s poverty reduction are historically unprecedented. Over the past 40 years, the number of people in China with incomes below US$1.90 per day—the international poverty line as defined by the World Bank to track global extreme poverty—has fallen by close to 800 million, accounting for almost three-quarters of the global reduction in extreme poverty. In 2021, China declared that it had eradicated extreme poverty according to its national poverty threshold, and that it had built a “moderately prosperous society in all respects.” However, a significant number of people remain vulnerable, with incomes below a threshold more typically used to define poverty in upper-middle-income countries. China has set a new goal of approaching common prosperity by 2035, which can help keep the policy focus on the vulnerable population. Four Decades of Poverty Reduction in China: Drivers, Insights for the World, and the Way Ahead explores the key drivers of China’s poverty alleviation achievements and considers the lessons of China’s experience for other developing countries. The report also makes suggestions for China’s future policies. China’s approach to poverty reduction was based on two pillars. The first aimed for broad-based economic transformation to open new economic opportunities and raise average incomes. The second was the recognition that targeted support was needed to alleviate persistent poverty; this support was initially provided to disadvantaged areas and later to individual households. The success of China’s economic development and the associated reduction of poverty also benefited from effective governance, which helped coordinate multiple government agencies and induce cooperation from nongovernment stakeholders. To illustrate the role of broad-based economic transformation for poverty alleviation, separate sections of the report analyze growing agricultural productivity, incremental industrialization, managed urbanization and rural-to-urban migration, and the role of infrastructure. -
Publication
Innovative China: New Drivers of Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-09-16)After more than three decades of average annual growth close to 10 percent, China's economy is transitioning to a 'new normal' of slower but more balanced and sustainable growth. Its old drivers of growth -- a growing labor force, the migration from rural areas to cities, high levels of investments, and expanding exports -- are waning or having less impact. China's policymakers are well aware that the country needs new drivers of growth. This report proposes a reform agenda that emphasizes productivity and innovation to help policymakers promote China's future growth and achieve their vision of a modern and innovative China. The reform agenda is based on the three D's: removing Distortions to strengthen market competition and enhance the efficient allocation of resources in the economy; accelerating Diffusion of advanced technologies and management practices in China's economy, taking advantage of the large remaining potential for catch-up growth; and fostering Discovery and nurturing China's competitive and innovative capacity as China approaches OECD incomes in the decades ahead and extends the global innovation and technology frontier. -
Publication
Belt and Road Economics: Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-06-18)China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 to improve connectivity and cooperation on a transcontinental scale. This study, by a team of World Bank Group economists led by Michele Ruta, analyzes the economics of the initiative. It assesses the connectivity gaps between economies along the initiative’s corridors, examines the costs and economic effects of the infrastructure improvements proposed under the initiative, and identifies complementary policy reforms and institutions that will support welfare maximization and mitigation of risks for participating economies. -
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Healthy China: Deepening Health Reform in China
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-03-28)The report recommends that China maintain the goal and direction of its healthcare reform, and continue the shift from its current hospital-centric model that rewards volume and sales, to one that is centered on primary care, focused on improving the quality of basic health services, and delivers high-quality, cost-effective health services. With 20 commissioned background studies, more than 30 case studies, visits to 21 provinces in China, the report proposes practical, concrete steps toward a value-based integrated service model of healthcare financing and delivery, including: 1) Creating a new model of people-centered quality integrated health care that strengthens primary care as the core of the health system. This new care model is organized around the health needs of individuals and families and is integrated with higher level care and social services. 2) Continuously improve health care quality, establish an effective coordination mechanism, and actively engage all stakeholders and professional bodies to oversee improvements in quality and performance. 3) Empowering patients with knowledge and understanding of health services, so that there is more trust in the system and patients are actively engaged in their healthcare decisions. 4) Reforming public hospitals, so that they focus on complicated cases and delegate routine care to primary-care providers. 5) Changing incentives for providers, so they are rewarded for good patient health outcomes instead of the number of medical procedures used or drugs sold. 6) Boosting the status of the health workforce, especially primary-care providers, so they are better paid and supported to ensure a competent health workforce aligned with the new delivery system. 7) Allowing qualified private health providers to deliver cost-effective services and compete on a level playing field with the public sector, with the right regulatory oversight, and 8) Prioritizing public investments according to the burden of disease, where people live, and the kind of care people need on a daily basis. -
Publication
Trouble in the Making?: The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-09-20)Globalization and new technologies are impacting the desirability and feasibility of what has historically been the most successful development strategy. Manufacturing has been seen as special, promising both productivity gains and job creation. But trade is slowing. Global value chains (GVC) are maturing. Robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the Internet of things are shifting what makes locations attractive for production and threatening significant disruptions in employment. There is a risk of increased polarization, within countries and across countries. Shifting the attention from high-income countries, this report takes the perspective of developing countries to ask: -- If new technologies reduce the importance of low-wage labor, how can developing countries compete? -- Do countries need to industrialize to develop? -- How can countries at different levels of development take advantage of new opportunities? Development strategies need to broaden. Different manufacturing sub-sectors can still provide productivity growth or jobs; fewer can deliver both. Many of the pro-development characteristics traditionally associated with manufacturing--tradability, scale, innovation, learning-by-doing--are increasingly features of services. With faster diffusion of technology, it will be all the more important for countries to improve the enabling environment, remain open to trade, and support capabilities of firms and workers to ensure future prosperity is shared. -
Publication
Deepening Health Reform in China: Building High-Quality and Value-Based Service Delivery
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-07-22)At a meeting in July 2014 in Beijing, we committed to working together on a flagship report that would help set the direction for health sector reform in China. This report, Deepening Health Reform in China, is the result. Using the successful model offered by previous flagship reports like China 2030 and Urban China, this report primarily offers a blueprint for a new direction for China’s health sector. The report’s main theme is the need for China to transition its healthcare delivery system toward people-centered, quality, integrated care built on the foundation of a strong primary healthcare system. -
Publication
Urban China : Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-07)In the last 30 years, China’s record economic growth lifted half a billion people out of poverty, with rapid urbanization providing abundant labor, cheap land, and good infrastructure. While China has avoided some of the common ills of urbanization, strains are showing as inefficient land development leads to urban sprawl and ghost towns, pollution threatens people’s health, and farmland and water resources are becoming scarce. With China’s urban population projected to rise to about one billion – or close to 70 percent of the country’s population – by 2030, China’s leaders are seeking a more coordinated urbanization process. Urban China is a joint research report by a team from the World Bank and the Development Research Center of China’s State Council which was established to address the challenges and opportunities of urbanization in China and to help China forge a new model of urbanization. The report takes as its point of departure the conviction that China's urbanization can become more efficient, inclusive, and sustainable. However, it stresses that achieving this vision will require strong support from both government and the markets for policy reforms in a number of area. The report proposes six main areas for reform: first, amending land management institutions to foster more efficient land use, denser cities, modernized agriculture, and more equitable wealth distribution; second, adjusting the hukou household registration system to increase labor mobility and provide urban migrant workers equal access to a common standard of public services; third, placing urban finances on a more sustainable footing while fostering financial discipline among local governments; fourth, improving urban planning to enhance connectivity and encourage scale and agglomeration economies; fifth, reducing environmental pressures through more efficient resource management; and sixth, improving governance at the local level. -
Publication
China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-03-22)China's economic performance over the past 30 years has been remarkable. The report is based on the strong conviction that China has the potential to become a modern, harmonious, and creative high income society by 2030. The report proposes six strategic directions for China's new development strategy: 1) rethinking the role of the state and the private sector to encourage increased competition in the economy; 2) encouraging innovation and adopting an open innovation system with links to global research and development networks; 3) looking to green development as a significant new growth opportunity; 4) promoting equality of opportunity and social protection for all; 5) strengthening the fiscal system and improving fiscal sustainability; and 6) ensuring that China, as an international stakeholder, continues its integration with global markets. -
Publication
China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society [pre-publication version]
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-02-27)China should complete its transition to a market economy--through enterprise, land, labor, and financial sector reforms--strengthen its private sector, open its markets to greater competition and innovation, and ensure equality of opportunity to help achieve its goal of a new structure for economic growth. These are some of the key findings of a joint research report by a team from the World Bank and the Development Research Center of China’s State Council, which lays out the case for a new development strategy for China to rebalance the role of government and market, private sector and society, to reach the goal of a high income country by 2030. This report recommends steps to deal with the risks facing China over the next 20 years, including the risk of a hard landing in the short term, as well as challenges posed by an ageing and shrinking workforce, rising inequality, environmental stresses, and external imbalances. The report lays out six strategic directions for China’s future: * Completing the transition to a market economy; * Accelerating the pace of open innovation; * Going “green” to transform environmental stresses into green growth as a driver for development; * Expanding opportunities and services such as health, education and access to jobs for all people; * Modernizing and strengthening its domestic fiscal system; * Seeking mutually beneficial relations with the world by connecting China’s structural reforms to the changing international economy. -
Publication
Changing the Industrial Geography in Asia : The Impact of China and India
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010)The focus of this volume is on China and India. The authors see them as the principal beneficiaries of the first upheaval, roughly bookended by the crises of 1997-98 and of 2008-09, and as being among the prime movers whose economic footprints will expand most rapidly in the coming decades. If these two countries do come close to realizing their considerable ambitions, their neighbors in Asia and their trading partners throughout the world must be ready for major adjustments. The changes in industrial geography and in the pattern of trade since the mid-1990s have already been far-reaching. Nothing on a comparable scale occurred during the preceding two decades of the 20th century. These developments offer instructive clues concerning the possible direction of changes in the future. However, in the interest of manageability, the author analysis is centered on the dynamics of industrialization, as these have a large bearing on the course of development. Within this context, reference is made to trade, foreign direct investment, and the building of technological capabilities, which together constitute a major subset of the factors responsible for the shape not only of the industrial geography of the past but also of the industrial geography yet to come. The striking feature of development in South and East Asia in the second half of the 20th century is the degree to which Japan dominated the industrial landscape and how the Japanese model triggered the first wave of industrialization in four East Asian economies-the Republic of Korea; Taiwan, China; Hong Kong, China; and Singapore. These four so-called tiger economies were the early starters, and each has become a mature industrial economy. Indeed, Hong Kong, having transferred almost all of its manufacturing activities to the Pearl River Delta, has morphed into a postindustrial economy.