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Publication
Innovative China: New Drivers of Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-09-16)After more than three decades of average annual growth close to 10 percent, China's economy is transitioning to a 'new normal' of slower but more balanced and sustainable growth. Its old drivers of growth -- a growing labor force, the migration from rural areas to cities, high levels of investments, and expanding exports -- are waning or having less impact. China's policymakers are well aware that the country needs new drivers of growth. This report proposes a reform agenda that emphasizes productivity and innovation to help policymakers promote China's future growth and achieve their vision of a modern and innovative China. The reform agenda is based on the three D's: removing Distortions to strengthen market competition and enhance the efficient allocation of resources in the economy; accelerating Diffusion of advanced technologies and management practices in China's economy, taking advantage of the large remaining potential for catch-up growth; and fostering Discovery and nurturing China's competitive and innovative capacity as China approaches OECD incomes in the decades ahead and extends the global innovation and technology frontier. -
Publication
Belt and Road Economics: Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-06-18)China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 to improve connectivity and cooperation on a transcontinental scale. This study, by a team of World Bank Group economists led by Michele Ruta, analyzes the economics of the initiative. It assesses the connectivity gaps between economies along the initiative’s corridors, examines the costs and economic effects of the infrastructure improvements proposed under the initiative, and identifies complementary policy reforms and institutions that will support welfare maximization and mitigation of risks for participating economies. -
Publication
Healthy China: Deepening Health Reform in China
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-03-28)The report recommends that China maintain the goal and direction of its healthcare reform, and continue the shift from its current hospital-centric model that rewards volume and sales, to one that is centered on primary care, focused on improving the quality of basic health services, and delivers high-quality, cost-effective health services. With 20 commissioned background studies, more than 30 case studies, visits to 21 provinces in China, the report proposes practical, concrete steps toward a value-based integrated service model of healthcare financing and delivery, including: 1) Creating a new model of people-centered quality integrated health care that strengthens primary care as the core of the health system. This new care model is organized around the health needs of individuals and families and is integrated with higher level care and social services. 2) Continuously improve health care quality, establish an effective coordination mechanism, and actively engage all stakeholders and professional bodies to oversee improvements in quality and performance. 3) Empowering patients with knowledge and understanding of health services, so that there is more trust in the system and patients are actively engaged in their healthcare decisions. 4) Reforming public hospitals, so that they focus on complicated cases and delegate routine care to primary-care providers. 5) Changing incentives for providers, so they are rewarded for good patient health outcomes instead of the number of medical procedures used or drugs sold. 6) Boosting the status of the health workforce, especially primary-care providers, so they are better paid and supported to ensure a competent health workforce aligned with the new delivery system. 7) Allowing qualified private health providers to deliver cost-effective services and compete on a level playing field with the public sector, with the right regulatory oversight, and 8) Prioritizing public investments according to the burden of disease, where people live, and the kind of care people need on a daily basis. -
Publication
Trouble in the Making?: The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-09-20)Globalization and new technologies are impacting the desirability and feasibility of what has historically been the most successful development strategy. Manufacturing has been seen as special, promising both productivity gains and job creation. But trade is slowing. Global value chains (GVC) are maturing. Robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the Internet of things are shifting what makes locations attractive for production and threatening significant disruptions in employment. There is a risk of increased polarization, within countries and across countries. Shifting the attention from high-income countries, this report takes the perspective of developing countries to ask: -- If new technologies reduce the importance of low-wage labor, how can developing countries compete? -- Do countries need to industrialize to develop? -- How can countries at different levels of development take advantage of new opportunities? Development strategies need to broaden. Different manufacturing sub-sectors can still provide productivity growth or jobs; fewer can deliver both. Many of the pro-development characteristics traditionally associated with manufacturing--tradability, scale, innovation, learning-by-doing--are increasingly features of services. With faster diffusion of technology, it will be all the more important for countries to improve the enabling environment, remain open to trade, and support capabilities of firms and workers to ensure future prosperity is shared.