Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, home to more than 1 billion people, half of whom will be under 25 years old by 2050, is a diverse ...
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Publication Trade as an Engine of Grow in Somalia: Constraints and Opportunities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05) World BankInternational trade can promote efficiency, knowledge diffusion, technological progress, and—what ultimately matters most—inclusive growth and poverty reduction. Boosting export competitiveness is inextricably linked with rebuilding the productive sectors of Somalia’s economy, generating jobs and incomes, and reducing the country’s large structural trade deficits, which have averaged over 80 percent of GDP since 2015. Somalia supplies a limited number of exports to a relatively small set of markets. Its top five export products in 2018 accounted for more than 83 percent of total goods exports. Dominated by live animals, these exports are primarily unprocessed primary commodities that do not generate spillovers to other sectors of the economy and are vulnerable to weather and other shocks. Somalia also exports to a small set of countries: 82 percent of its exports were sold to just five destinations in 2018, mainly the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Somalia’s annual goods export revenues could be increased significantly by expanding sales of current exports to new markets and markets where potential remains untapped. Export growth opportunities are greatest for sesame seed and fish. There is also some potential to increase livestock exports by seeking new markets, although econometric analysis suggest that some markets in the Gulf may be saturated. Gums and resins (frankincense and myrrh), fruit, and meat also show potential for increased sales. Countries in East and South Asia present the greatest opportunities for growth. These export opportunities could be prioritized in Somalia’s national trade strategy. Limited or unreliable domestic supply constrains many of Somalia’s exporters. The World Bank’s 2018 Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) presents recommendations for sustainably increasing output of fish, sesame seed, animals, and other commodities that Somalia already exports. To break into new markets, Somali exporters must also invest in gathering information about consumer preferences and policies in unfamiliar markets and establish business relationships with new buyers, shippers, and other partners. The 2018 CEM identifies important roles for public and private sectors in strengthening systems to ensure animal and plant health and developing logistical arrangements to support increased trade flows, which could be reflected in the national trade strategy.Publication Republic of Malawi Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update : Reducing Trade Costs to Promote Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth(Washington, DC, 2014-03-25) World BankThe diagnostic trade integration study (DTIS) update identifies the trade related constraints holding back Malawi from diversifying and deepening its production base, and increasing trade. The DTIS update identifies and quantifies specific trade costs that determine the availability and price of inputs and the ability of producers to get their products to regional and international markets. The report focuses on tariff policies, regulatory issues impacting on trade, trade facilitation and logistics, and policies affecting agricultural trade and trade in services. Recognizing that the (enhanced) integrated framework and the DTIS (including the 2003 DTIS for Malawi) have not been effective in addressing many of the broader issues requiring large-scale physical investments in most countries, this DTIS update focuses on specific trade related policy and regulatory issues within the mandate and policy space of the ministry of trade and the national implementation unit or similar implementation mechanisms. In this context, the report is structured as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two outlines the current macroeconomic position and the level of trade openness, summarizes the status of the business enabling environment. Chapter three describes Malawi's current trade policy with a detailed review of the existing tariff schedules. Chapter four addresses a range of the key regulatory issues that raise costs for all producers in Malawi. Chapter five looks in depth at how the trade and regulatory policies within the agricultural sector impact on competitiveness. Finally, chapter six addresses the important issues of trade in services through focusing on professional services such as engineering, accounting, and law.Publication Estimating Trade Flows, Describing Trade Relationships, and Identifying Barriers to Cross-Border Trade Between Cameroon and Nigeria(Washington, DC, 2013-05-07) World BankCameroon and Nigeria share a common border of nearly 1,700km and both countries have strong historical and cultural ties. However, the partnership between the two countries has had its difficult periods, most recently when the relationship turned hostile over the disputed Bakassi Peninsula, and economic linkages between the economies remain limited. Expanding trade between the two countries could play a critical role in accelerating economic development and regional integration by opening up new markets for producers, and allowing them to benefit from economies of scale. This will require reducing barriers to cross-border trade, allowing increased trade flows to reach the larger market, and permitting private sector producers to increase the scale of their activities. Removing barriers to trade between the two neighbors is likely to benefit particularly relatively remote areas of both countries. The study finds that regulatory and security barriers at the border and along the road remain key impediments to trade. The remainder of this report proceeds as follows. Section one describes drivers for cross border trade such as historical relations, economic factors, and the policy environment. The next section describes the reality of trade flows by describing existing trade corridors and estimating current trade flows. Section three describes how goods are actually traded across borders between the two countries, and how different actors are involved. Section four describes the barriers to trade, and identifies which barriers are most important. Section five describes the potential for increasing trade. Section six summarizes the findings and presents prioritized recommendations for policy reform.Publication Chinese FDI in Ethiopia: A World Bank Survey(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-11) World BankChinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Africa is on the rise and Ethiopia is at the forefront of this trend. On request of the Government, the World Bank surveyed 69 Chinese enterprises doing business in Ethiopia with a 95-question survey in May/June 2012. The survey covered various aspects of the foreign direct investment climate in Ethiopia, including infrastructure, sales and supplies, land, crime, competition, finance, human resources, and questions about general opportunities and constraints for doing business in Ethiopia. This report summarizes the results of survey and provides policy suggestions in light of the analysis; the report also provides some broader background of the expected benefits of FDI into Ethiopia as well as current policies and approaches to promote incoming investment. Addressing identified obstacles could help Ethiopia to take better advantage of foreign investors in order to accelerate the shift from a predominantly low-productivity agriculture-based economy towards a higher-productivity manufacturing and export-based economy. Experiences in successful countries around the world, and especially East Asia show that foreign investment is instrumental to facilitate such a structural transformation and to maintain sustained and broad-based economic development. This study recommends five main areas for policy adjustments to facilitate foreign investors coming into Ethiopia: adjust customs clearance procedures and trade regulations; facilitate currency convertibility and increase transparency of the exchange rate policy; improve tax administration consistency and efficacy; execute impartial labor regulation; and increase the supply and quality of skilled workers.Publication Kenya Exports Performance Overview(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-08) World BankKenya's economy has been running on one engine. Kenya's strong engine is domestic consumption, which accounts for 75 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Kenya's weak engine remains its exports, which have been declining sharply in relative importance. Kenya's top four main exports do not earn enough to pay for oil imports, not to mention other imports. It will be very difficult for Kenya to achieve high growth over an extended period of time because of its existing economic imbalances. Kenya needs to increase its export competitiveness. It is clear that Kenya's trade performance is below its potential. The objective of this overview is to provide some of that analysis and to contribute to the policy dialogue on the role of exports Kenya's future growth. This paper focuses on five issues: 1) overall trade orientation and export growth; 2) merchandise export trends; 3) merchandise exports by sector; 4) merchandise exports by destination; and 5) diversification. The growth of merchandise exports has been slow and volatile. The average annual growth rate of merchandise exports has been only 10 percent. And while countries such as Vietnam have has a distinct export growth trajectory with steady growth in merchandise exports year after year, Kenya's pattern has been rather volatile with a few good years followed by major falls. Export growth has been driven primarily by existing products in existing markets. Overall there has been little new product/new market discovery.Publication Liberia - Tapping Nature’s Bounty for the Benefits of All : Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2008-12) World BankLiberia is a rich country, badly managed. This is a favorite comment of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and an accurate one. The bad management is well-known, though perhaps not its duration and depth. Created in 1847, the country is far older than almost all others in sub- Saharan Africa. But for most of this time, it was ruled by an elite descended from African-American settlers who ignored or exploited the indigenous people. The result was growth without development, stark inequality, social tension and the seeds of unrest. The political order was turned upside down in a bloody coup in 1980, but bad management continued. Within ten years the country descended into civil war from which it only emerged in 2003. The 90 percent decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is possibly the most extreme economic collapse ever experienced in the world. This study lays out a comprehensive pro poor trade strategy in support of the medium-term growth agenda of Liberia. The new Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) for Liberia recognizes all this. Indeed, this Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) and the PRS were developed in parallel and with considerable cross-fertilization. A joint workshop was held on the productive sectors in February 2008. The role of this study is therefore to reinforce the message contained in the PRS, deepen the analysis, and offer some practical next steps.Publication Burkina Faso : The Challenge of Export Diversification for a Landlocked Country(Washington, DC, 2007-09) World BankThe objective of the Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) is to build the foundation for accelerated growth by enhancing the integration of its economy into regional and global markets. Burkina Faso is one of the best economic performers in West Africa, yet its integration into the world economy, as measured by its trade and foreign investment performance, is among the lowest. Economic growth has been strong, higher than all other countries in the sub-region. This has been achieved in spite of droughts and cricket invasions, and the turmoil in Cote d'Ivoire, and without significant oil or mining exports. Macroeconomic management has been consistently strong, and inflation low. At the same time, its export to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is only one-third that of Senegal or Mali, while foreign directs investment inflows are far below the average for sub-Saharan Africa. At a time when globalization is determining the fate of nations, Burkina Faso seems to be on the sidelines and doing fairly well. If the country is to raise economic growth rates to the levels necessary to make major inroads on poverty, and reduce its aid dependence, it will need to improve its performance on exports and foreign investment. Implementation of a weighing program to fight against overloading of merchandise, coordinated along all the corridors.The challenge for Burkina Faso is to step up efforts to consolidate this sound performance in order to accelerate growth and deepen the fight against poverty. These efforts will be deployed on three fronts. The first consists in maintaining macroeconomic stability to improve the international competitiveness of the economy; the second, diversifying exports to expand trade and stimulate growth; and the third, strengthening social sectors and small operators in order to make growth inclusive and to maximize its impact on poverty reduction. This study focuses on the second challenge, taking into account the importance of participation by small operators.Publication The Gambia - From Entrepot to Exporter and Eco-tourism : Diagnostic Trade Integration Study for the Integrated Framework for Trade-related Technical Assistance to Least Developed Countries(Washington, DC, 2007-07) World BankFor decades, Gambia has served as a regional entrepot, using the river as a transportation link to the hinterland. Relatively low import taxes, well-functioning port and customs services, and limited administrative barriers reinforced Gambia's position as a trading center. About 80 percent of Gambian merchandise exports consist of re-exports to the sub-region goods imported into Gambia are transported unofficially into Senegal and beyond. Gambian economy and especially its public finances are highly dependent on this trade because imported goods destined for re-export pay the normal import duties. Recently, however, re-exports have declined due to a combination of tensions with Senegal, harmonization of import and sales taxes in the region, and improved port and customs operations in Senegal and other neighboring countries. The current re-export trade is unlikely to be sustainable, calling for a strategy to build growth on a more secure foundation. The report identifies directions for establishing a more sustainable foundation for the country's position as a gateway to the region by improving the transport system and reinforcing its efficient trade facilitation services, while recognizing the limited potential for growth. The study makes detailed recommendations on strengthening and diversifying domestic production of goods and services in the areas of tourism, groundnuts, other agriculture, and fishing, by improving the business climate as well as implementing sector-specific reforms.Publication Kenya : Unleashing the Potential for Trade and Growth(Washington, DC, 2007-02) World BankThere is tremendous potential for trade to play a key role in driving and sustaining growth and poverty reduction in Kenya. There is significant potential for greater participation in international markets to support growth and poverty reduction. Kenya has had some notable achievements: in cut flowers and fresh vegetables. This report assesses Kenya's trade performance, and identifies key domestic constraints to its further integration into the global economy. Furthermore, the report advances a set of recommendations to tackle these constraints, with a focus on how trade can contribute to growth and poverty reduction in the country. Specifically, the report aims to support the Government o f Kenya (GOK) to: realize its Investment Program for the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation 2003-2007 (IP-ERS), to implement its National Export Strategy (NES); to implement its Private Sector Development strategy and formulate a trade-policy strategy.Publication Angola : Diagnostic Trade Integration Study(Washington, DC, 2006-09) World BankThe primary goal of this Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) is to provide a plan for reactivating Angola's productive sectors that reduces the country's reliance on imports while enabling the restoration of export capacity in the medium to long term. Executing such a plan will involve investing in the rehabilitation of infrastructure destroyed by war and making and adjusting policies that affect the institutional underpinnings of a market economy, as well as incentives for exporting and importing. This goal is inextricably linked with the overriding need to create jobs and alleviate poverty identified in the government of Angola's long-term poverty reduction plan, the Estrategia de Combate a Pobreza (ECP).