Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
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Publication
Post Covid-19 - Building a Resilient and More Sustainable Recovery in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras: Central America Competitiveness Report
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)The Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has had widespread negative effects in developing countries around the world, generating an unprecedented shock. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was a particularly affected region, recording a significant contraction in regional GDP and international trade in 2020. This report focuses on the impact of Covid-19 and recovery in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. These three Central American countries (CA3), albeit unique in their history and characteristics, share many similarities in their economic context and challenges for achieving sustained growth. The region includes one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, with low economic growth rates relative to other Latin American countries. -
Publication
Special Economic Zones and Industrial Parks in South Asia: An Assessment of Their Regulatory Structures
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-10)This paper reviews the policies and regulations for special economic zones and other spatial development modalities in the countries within proximity of the Eastern Corridor in South Asia, and it assesses whether those policies and regulations are effectively designed. The assessment finds mixed results. On the positive side, governments in these countries exhibit a strong political commitment to the zones’ success, providing them with dedicated policies of both fiscal incentives and regulatory concessions, combined with administrative simplification to help zone developers and tenant enterprises. However, these arrangements include some notable shortfalls. For example, some incentives are inconsistent with the zone objectives, violate some international regulations, or miss necessary business facilitation measures. Moreover, there is no mechanism to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of different incentives. Zone tenancy requirements are not always well specified, feasible, or consistent with zone objectives. As for the regulatory and institutional structures of zone programs, there are some common shortfalls, especially in terms of (a) clarity of zone objectives, (b) the roles of different agents, (c) the autonomy and inclusivity of those agents, and (d) the agents’ authority to carry out their responsibilities, and there are some shortfalls in the resources that agents need to manage operations effectively. To maximize the benefits from these zones, governments of the region could adopt reforms to ensure that incentives and tenancy requirements are aligned with zone objectives and that regulatory frameworks are clear, fair, and effective. -
Publication
Ecuador Trade and Investment Competitiveness Report
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)The internationalization of the Ecuadorian economy is necessary if the country is to successfully adopt a development model led by the private-sector. The Ecuadorian government is seeking to accelerate growth and sustain social progress by giving greater prominence to the private sector; it does at a time when external conditions are less favorable than at any time in the last decade. This report has three main objectives; to provide a systematic benchmark of Ecuador’s connection to the global economy, to identify key bottlenecks, and to make recommendations for enhancing the competitiveness of the private sector. The assessment is broken down into two sections. First, there is a section about international competitiveness outcomes, which assess Ecuador’s performance and identifies the challenges associated with connecting to international markets. The analysis looks at outcomes throughout the four competitiveness channels; that is, exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and global value chains (GVCs). The report’s second main section contains a competitiveness diagnostic about the key drivers behind the previously identified challenges and provides actionable policy recommendations to overcome them. The determinants are grouped in four mutually exclusive groups: (i) the macro and fiscal framework; (ii) the institutional and regulatory framework governing trade and investment; (iii) supply-side factors; and (iv) demand-side factors. -
Publication
CEMAC: Deepening Regional Integration to Advance Growth and Prosperity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-29)The Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), which consists of Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, is one of the oldest regional groupings in Africa. The main objectives for achieving this are: (i) the creation of a fully functional and effective customs union, (ii) the establishment of a robust system of macroeconomic surveillance, and (iii) the harmonization of sectoral policies and legal frameworks that will create a common market for goods, capital, and services.Despite this ambitious vision, regional integration in the CEMAC zone remains shallow.The oil price shock of 2014-15 severely affected the six CEMAC economies and promoted re-commitment to deepening regional integration.At the regional level, the PREF also aims to: (i) improve the coordination of public financial management (PFM) and fiscal policy; (ii) accelerate regional integration through improvements to the regional economic plan; (iii) improve the business climate; (iv) increase economic diversification; (v) enhance monetary policy transmission mechanisms; and (vi) improve prudential banking supervision.CEMAC is right to focus on reforms to deepening regional integration as a driver of growth.The objective of this Regional Study on CEMAC is to support policy makers in CEMAC in efforts to strengthen regional integration to support economic growth and to reduce the need for economic adjustment. The Regional Study focuses mainly on what can be done at the regional level to support regional integration, macro-stability and long-term growth in the CEMAC area; as such, the Regional Study aims to complement country-specific policies and initiatives to support macro-stabilization, economic development and integration. -
Publication
Niger: Leveraging Export Diversification to Foster Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-12-09)Niger’s Vision 2035 acknowledges the country has little choice but to create ‘a competitive anddiversified economy.’ Economic diversification is a cornerstone component of the Economic Orientation Document (EOD) 2016-19 and the PDES 2017-21. The EOD defines Niger’s economic diversification as moving exports away from natural resources and increasing the value-added component of exports as the foundation for its agro-based industrialization and employment creation policies. Hence, an exports diversification strategy is akin to the country’s economic diversification and, not surprisingly, the PDES contains several axes of policy interventions supporting it. However, Niger faces serious structural challenges to diversify into new productive activities. The country is landlocked, exporting costs are high and, given multiple infrastructure and logistics gaps, access to markets is difficult beyond neighboring regional markets. Rapid population growth and low human capital turns into a low skilled population. Volatile economic growth, reliant on a few commodity exports that closely follow the vagaries of weather and boom and busts of international prices, makes hardly obtained poverty gains vulnerable. -
Publication
Impact of the Libya Crisis on the Tunisian Economy
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02-01)This study assesses the main spillover effects of the Libyan crisis on the Tunisian economy and estimates the crisis’ overall social welfare and fiscal impacts on Tunisia. The authors consider four main effects on Tunisia: (i) the increased presence of Libyans in Tunisia (both short- and long-term), and the return of Tunisian workers from Libya; (ii) the level and dynamics of illicit informal trade and informal cash flows between the two countries; (iii) the deterioration of civil security in the region and its effects on private investment and tourism; and (iv) the increase in the Tunisian government’s security spending. The chapter is organized as follows. Section one describes the objectives of the investigation and methodology. Section two estimates the number of Libyans living in Tunisia (temporary and permanent) and their demographic characteristics. Section three analyzes the living conditions of Libyan households in Tunisia and provides an estimate of their poverty level. Section four analyzes the shocks to Libyan households, and those households’ adaptations and resilience in response to shocks. Section five discusses the migratory decisions of Libyan households, in particular their preference to either return to Libya or remain permanently in Tunisia. -
Publication
Mobilizing the Middle East and North Africa Diaspora for Economic Integration and Entrepreneurship
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-12)This paper advocates for the need to rally the MENA professional and skilled diaspora. It discusses the findings of a unique outreach exercise to the MENA diaspora and provides policy recommendations. First, the paper highlights the linkages between the diaspora and trade, investment, and knowledge transfer based on the literature and concrete examples. Second, it describes the outreach and the profile of the diaspora members surveyed. Third, it presents the main findings of the survey of the MENA diaspora in four areas: (i) overall engagement, (ii) appetite for investment, (iii) trade, and (iv) the role of institutions. The paper concludes with policy recommendations. -
Publication
Special Economic Zones in the Dominican Republic: Policy Considerations for a More Competitive and Inclusive Sector
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-11)The Dominican Republic is often considered an example of the successful implementation of Special Economic Zones (henceforth SEZs) in the Western hemisphere. The zones fueled economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s and, while they experienced a sharp decline in employment due in part to the expiry of the end of the Multi-Fiber Agreement and stronger international competition in the textile and apparel industry in 2005, signs of recovery have been observed since 2009. Surgical equipment, chemicals and plastics, and footwear have recently emerged as the new drivers of export dynamism in the zones (World Bank, 2015). The objective of this report is to inform the policy discussion around the developmental impact of SEZs in the Dominican Republic by empirically assessing i) the implications of regulatory reforms aimed at complying with WTO disciplines regarding the elimination of incentives conditioned on export performance for SEZs firms, ii) the extent to which SEZs participate in Global Value Chains, and iii) their linkages with domestic suppliers. The report is organized as follows: The second section presents the historical importance of SEZ as an engine of economic growth in the country. The third section depicts the structural shift in terms of production in SEZs and evaluates the degree of value addition taking place in the Dominican Republic. The fourth section evaluates the degree and evolution of linkages between SEZs and local firms. The fifth section shows the impact of the regulatory changes in the SEZ regimen undertaken to comply with WTO disciplines. Finally, some conclusions and policy recommendations are presented in section six. -
Publication
Opening for Business: Myanmar Diagnostic Trade Integration Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06-30)As part of the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) program for Trade-Related Assistance to Least Developed Countries (LCDs), which Myanmar joined in April 2013, the Government of Myanmar has asked the World Bank Group (WBG) to be the implementing agency for a Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS). The general objectives of a DTIS are: (i) to assist the government in mainstreaming trade and competitiveness in the country’s overall development strategy; (ii) to provide a diagnostic and analytical tool to prioritize and sequence key reforms in the area of trade and competitiveness; and (iii) to provide a platform for development partners to coordinate action and align trade related assistance with government priorities. This DTIS has identified a number of domestic and external constraints facing Myanmar as it strives to leverage regional and global integration for inclusive, export-led growth. Based on this, the current report provides analytical input on the linkages between trade and poverty, and highlights key steps to remove bottlenecks in terms of trade policy and trade facilitation. -
Publication
Assessing the Impact of WTO Accession on Belarus: A Quantitative Evaluation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)As a small and open economy, Belarus' development perspectives are intrinsically linked to its ability to produce and sell goods and services competitively in the global marketplace. While Belarus is an open economy, its trade links are concentrated both in terms of products and markets. Mineral goods –most importantly refined oil and potassium chloride - are the main export product accounting for more than 1/3 of total exports. Non mineral exports, including most importantly machinery, vehicles and transport equipment are mostly exported to Russia and other CIS markets, which account for 74 percent of non-mineral exports while the share of EU countries in Belarus non-mineral exports account for less than 15 percent. With Russia's WTO accession in 2012 competitive pressures on Belarus’ major market for non-mineral exports have further intensified. As Belarus is accelerating its own negotiations with the WTO, understanding the challenges and opportunities faced by the country's exporters is critical to putting in place an effective adaptation strategy that will enhance competitiveness and ensure Belarus can take full advantage of more open market access. The objective of this note is to analyze the economic impacts of Belarus' potential accession to the WTO. The note utilizes a modern computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Belarus to simulate impacts on the economy as a whole and on individual sectors.