Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
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Publication
Post Covid-19 - Building a Resilient and More Sustainable Recovery in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras: Central America Competitiveness Report
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)The Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has had widespread negative effects in developing countries around the world, generating an unprecedented shock. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was a particularly affected region, recording a significant contraction in regional GDP and international trade in 2020. This report focuses on the impact of Covid-19 and recovery in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. These three Central American countries (CA3), albeit unique in their history and characteristics, share many similarities in their economic context and challenges for achieving sustained growth. The region includes one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, with low economic growth rates relative to other Latin American countries. -
Publication
Ecuador Trade and Investment Competitiveness Report
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)The internationalization of the Ecuadorian economy is necessary if the country is to successfully adopt a development model led by the private-sector. The Ecuadorian government is seeking to accelerate growth and sustain social progress by giving greater prominence to the private sector; it does at a time when external conditions are less favorable than at any time in the last decade. This report has three main objectives; to provide a systematic benchmark of Ecuador’s connection to the global economy, to identify key bottlenecks, and to make recommendations for enhancing the competitiveness of the private sector. The assessment is broken down into two sections. First, there is a section about international competitiveness outcomes, which assess Ecuador’s performance and identifies the challenges associated with connecting to international markets. The analysis looks at outcomes throughout the four competitiveness channels; that is, exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and global value chains (GVCs). The report’s second main section contains a competitiveness diagnostic about the key drivers behind the previously identified challenges and provides actionable policy recommendations to overcome them. The determinants are grouped in four mutually exclusive groups: (i) the macro and fiscal framework; (ii) the institutional and regulatory framework governing trade and investment; (iii) supply-side factors; and (iv) demand-side factors. -
Publication
Special Economic Zones in the Dominican Republic: Policy Considerations for a More Competitive and Inclusive Sector
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-11)The Dominican Republic is often considered an example of the successful implementation of Special Economic Zones (henceforth SEZs) in the Western hemisphere. The zones fueled economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s and, while they experienced a sharp decline in employment due in part to the expiry of the end of the Multi-Fiber Agreement and stronger international competition in the textile and apparel industry in 2005, signs of recovery have been observed since 2009. Surgical equipment, chemicals and plastics, and footwear have recently emerged as the new drivers of export dynamism in the zones (World Bank, 2015). The objective of this report is to inform the policy discussion around the developmental impact of SEZs in the Dominican Republic by empirically assessing i) the implications of regulatory reforms aimed at complying with WTO disciplines regarding the elimination of incentives conditioned on export performance for SEZs firms, ii) the extent to which SEZs participate in Global Value Chains, and iii) their linkages with domestic suppliers. The report is organized as follows: The second section presents the historical importance of SEZ as an engine of economic growth in the country. The third section depicts the structural shift in terms of production in SEZs and evaluates the degree of value addition taking place in the Dominican Republic. The fourth section evaluates the degree and evolution of linkages between SEZs and local firms. The fifth section shows the impact of the regulatory changes in the SEZ regimen undertaken to comply with WTO disciplines. Finally, some conclusions and policy recommendations are presented in section six. -
Publication
Costa Rica : Five Years after CAFTA-DR, Assessing Early Results for the Costa Rican Economy
(Washington, DC, 2014-06-13)The Dominican Republic - Central America - United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) has been fundamental in creating a stable framework for Costa Rica's trade with the United States. For Costa Rica, CAFTA-DR is more than a trade agreement. Besides eliminating tariffs and reducing non-tariff barriers between member countries, CAFTA-DR also introduced major changes to the legal framework of member countries, reducing barriers to services, promoting transparency, and ensuring a secure and predictable environment for investors. This report analyses how CAFTA-DR has impacted the Costa Rican economy in the five years after ratification, both on a macro level and in key specific sectors. The report shows that CAFTA-DR is yielding benefits to the Costa Rican economy, but it is too early to provide a complete account just after five years. The agreement has succeeded to further trade integration between Costa Rica, the US, and other CAFTA-DR countries. Exports to the US began increasing several years before the agreement, but CAFTA-DR accelerated the trend. Costa Rica continues attracting FDI above levels observed in other CAFTA-DR countries, with an increasing share from US investors and a focus on medical devices and business services. Online survey and interviews of high-tech firms in free trade zones found that CAFTA-DR was an important factor in the investment decisions. CAFTA-DR ignited an explosion of changes in the telecom and insurance sectors, bringing new regulatory frameworks, competition, product innovations, and price reductions. Consumers are reaping the benefits of improved telecom and insurance services. But some issues remain for those markets to mature. Finally, the concern regarding the potential negative impact on the Costa Rican Social Security Administration's finances due to the intellectual property rights measures have not been observed. -
Publication
Exports, Export Destinations, and Skills
( 2010-05)This paper explores the links between exports, export destinations and skill utilization by firms. The authors identify two mechanisms behind these links, which we integrate into a unified theory of export destinations and skills. First, exporting to high-income countries requires quality upgrades that are skill-intensive (Verhoogen, 2008). Second, exporting in general, and exporting to high-income destinations in particular, requires services like distribution, transportation, and advertising, activities that are also intensive in skilled labor (Matsuyama, 2007). Both theories suggest a skill-bias in export destinations: firms that export to high-income destinations hire more skills and pay higher wages than firms that export to middle-income countries or that sells domestically. The authors test the theory using a panel of manufacturing Argentine firms. The data cover the period 1998-2000 and thus span the Brazilian currency devaluation of 1999. The authors use the exogenous changes in exports and export destinations brought about by this devaluation in a major export partner to identify the causal effect of exporting and of exporting to high-income countries on skill utilization. The authors fine that Argentine firms exporting to high-income countries hired a higher proportion of skilled workers and paid higher average wages than other exporters (to non high-income countries) and domestic firms. Instead, the authors cannot identify any causal effect of exporting per se on either skill utilization or average wages. -
Publication
Recent Evidence on Private Sector Capabilities, Trade Liberalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Deregulation Are Not Enough
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-06)This paper summarizes new empirical findings concerning the magnitude of market failures affecting industrial performance and innovation, firm dynamics after economic policy reforms, and the effectiveness of popular government interventions designed to promote exports and foreign direct investment (FDI). Regarding the effectiveness of public subsidies and targeted services, new evidence suggests that innovation policies targeting both patentable and non-patentable innovations, might yield higher returns in terms of innovative activity if they are broadly diversified across products within broad industrial categories, and revealed comparative advantage by itself provides little guidance as to what these innovative sectors might be. In general, efforts to promote exports and FDI seem to be effective on their own terms when the returns to public expenditures in these areas are measured by their effects on the value of exports and FDI inflows. However, there is significant heterogeneity both across regions and across types of expenditures. Overall, the recent research suggests that trade reforms and deregulation are not enough to sustain long-term development. -
Publication
Dominican Republic, Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) : Challenges and Opportunities for Central America
(Washington, DC, 2005-12)This report provides a preliminary assessment of DR-CAFTA (the , with particular attention to three key themes: (1) expected trade and non-trade benefits, (2) actions that Central American countries need to pursue to capitalize optimally on the new opportunities, and (3) identification of the population groups that may require assistance to adapt to a more competitive environment. The report focuses on the developing countries of Central America, namely Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The analysis presented in the report shows that the vast majority of the population in Central America is likely to experience welfare gains from implementation of DR-CAFTA, even in the short run. At the same time, the removal of trade barriers in sensitive agricultural crops could adversely affect a small share of the population living in rural areas in Central America. Although provisions in DR-CAFTA will allow for long timetables in reducing tariffs for the most sensitive products, appropriate support programs may need to be designed. In addition, selective investments in education, rural infrastructure, rural finance, and technical assistance will be required to ensure that the rural poor have the means to take full advantage of the new opportunities arising out of DR-CAFTA. Chapter 1 of the report reviews the main findings of the chapters in the order in which they appear. Chapter 2 places DR-CAFTA in the historical context of the economic reforms that Central American countries have been undertaking since the late 1980s. Chapter 3 provides a summary overview of the recently negotiated DR-CAFTA, with special attention on the extent to which the agreement's provisions would significantly change market access for Central American goods and services, and also on how far they could be expected to consolidate prior reforms. Chapter 4 reviews various analyses that assess the potential impacts of DR-CAFTA on the developing countries of Central America. Chapter 5 focuses on the identification and quantification of potentially affected populations from the easing of trade restrictions in sensitive agricultural products, and analyzes policy options to assist vulnerable groups. Chapter 6 reviews evidence related to key macroeconomic implications of DR-CAFTA, namely the potential revenue losses that might be produced by the removal of import taxes and the treaty's potential effect on the patterns of business-cycle synchronization. Chapter 7 reviews evidence from each Central American country in the areas of trade facilitation, institutional and regulatory reforms, and innovation and education, in order to identify key priorities for the complementary agenda for DR-CAFTA.