Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
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Publication
Opening for Business: Myanmar Diagnostic Trade Integration Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06-30)As part of the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) program for Trade-Related Assistance to Least Developed Countries (LCDs), which Myanmar joined in April 2013, the Government of Myanmar has asked the World Bank Group (WBG) to be the implementing agency for a Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS). The general objectives of a DTIS are: (i) to assist the government in mainstreaming trade and competitiveness in the country’s overall development strategy; (ii) to provide a diagnostic and analytical tool to prioritize and sequence key reforms in the area of trade and competitiveness; and (iii) to provide a platform for development partners to coordinate action and align trade related assistance with government priorities. This DTIS has identified a number of domestic and external constraints facing Myanmar as it strives to leverage regional and global integration for inclusive, export-led growth. Based on this, the current report provides analytical input on the linkages between trade and poverty, and highlights key steps to remove bottlenecks in terms of trade policy and trade facilitation. -
Publication
The Labor Impact of Lao Export Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)As countries become increasingly integrated into the global economy, increased trade links with other countries translate into increased access to better or cheaper imports and increased demand for exports. Both can have an impact on consumers, producers and workers through household consumption, household production, and labor incentives. The channels through which increased trade integration can affect labor include: (i) the consumption channel, typically leading to an increase in purchasing power and therefore higher real wages, and (ii) the employment effect due to increased labor demand. The extent of these gains to trade will depend on the incidence of trade policies or trade shocks; in other words, the impact will depend on which products become less expensive, which sectors increase demand for skilled or unskilled labor, and which workers can access these new jobs. This report utilizes a range of methodologies and datasets that implicitly link trade and jobs; by using these complementary analytical approaches, we generate multiple perspectives on Lao PDR’s recent labor market outcomes, and their implications for Lao PDR’s current and future trade competitiveness. -
Publication
Indonesia Current Account Assessment
(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-07-01)The analysis presented in this report suggests that Indonesia’s recent current account deficit results from the interaction of short, medium and long run factors that can be grouped into four blocks: external shocks, domestic policies, international integration, and stage of development and demographics. -
Publication
Cambodia Services Trade : Performance and Regulatory Framework Assessment
(Phnom Penh, 2014-07)As a result of a determined regulatory reform process and an economic modernization process over the past two decades, Cambodia has experienced extraordinary economic growth. In 2004, Cambodia became the first low-income country to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Since then, Cambodia has grown to become one of East Asia s most open economies, especially in the services sector. Cambodia s impressive economic growth owes much of its driving force to the boom in services trade. Services exports grew more than 20 percent a year for most of the past decade led by a rapid expansion in tourism. Foreign direct investment (FDI) particularly in tourism, construction, infrastructure, agro-processing, and telecommunications also supported the expansion of services trade, not only by attracting foreign capital and expanding employment into Cambodia, but also by improving domestic technology and enhancing domestic skills. Cambodia is quickly becoming a sophisticated economy that needs to move beyond the pillars of textiles and tourism exports by diversifying into the export of modern services. Cambodian firms are already tentatively exporting some niche services such as computer-based animation. Modern services exports to other East Asian countries, including information technology (IT)-related services, are likely to play a more important role in Cambodia as a source of employment, revenue, and investment. In the regional context, Cambodia stands to benefit from its chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), by showcasing its economic reform and modernization process, and increasing the potential to attract investments from services firms interested in serving the region as whole. Cambodia should act quickly to address potential competition from other least-developed (LDC) and developing countries across the regions that are also expanding their services industries. -
Publication
Reaping Benefits of FDI and Reshaping Shanghai's Economic Landscape
(Washington, DC, 2011-01)Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has played a significant and positive role in driving economic growth and upgrading economic structure in Shanghai. The shift in the pattern of FDI over the last decade towards services has been particularly crucial. Given its importance, Shanghai municipal government may continue to devote efforts to attract FDI and have foreign funded enterprises help reshape Shanghai's economic landscape. The main importance of FDI to Shanghai lies less in its capital finance, and more in the extent to which foreign funded enterprises (FFEs) help move the city up the value chain and generate high-end jobs. In the post-financial crisis era, developing countries will take a much larger role in leading world growth while enhanced competition will accelerate the pace of service revolution. Possessing strong geographic advantages, Shanghai has the potential to become an international business and financial hub and to have the high-tech industries and services being the driving force of the growth. Shanghai has strong potential in reaping the benefits of FDI and reshaping its economic landscape in 12th Five Year Plan period. In terms of the three conditions to succeed good opportunity, favorable geographic location and harmonious society, Shanghai is already in a good position. This note seeks to provide insights to help the Shanghai government make the right decisions and trade-offs to better reap the benefits of FDI in the context of a changing global context. -
Publication
Boom, Bust and Up Again? Evolution, Drivers and Impact of Commodity Prices: Implications for Indonesia
(World Bank, Jakarta, 2010-12)Indonesia is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world, and given its mineral potential and expected commodity price trends, it could and should expand its leading position. Commodities accounted for one fourth of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than one fifth of total government revenue in 2007. The potential for further commodity growth is considerable. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world (export earnings totaled almost US$9 billion in 2007 and employment 3.8 million full-time jobs) and the sector has good growth prospects. It is also one of the countries with the largest mining potential in view of its second-largest copper reserves and third-largest coal and nickel reserves in the world. This report consists of seven chapters. The first six chapters present an examination and an analysis of the factors driving increased commodity prices, price forecasts, economic impact of commodity price increases, effective price stabilization policies, and insights from Indonesia's past growth experience. The final chapter draws on the findings of the previous chapters and suggests a development strategy for Indonesia in the context of high commodity prices. This section summarizes the contents of the chapters and their main findings. -
Publication
China's New Trade Issues in The Post-WTO Accession Era
(World Bank, 2010-01-01)The past eight years witnessed China's phenomenal growth and integration into the world economy, expedited by its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. The accession greatly accelerated China's domestic reforms. By the end of 2007, China was ranked the second largest exporter and third largest trader in the world after its exports grew at over 20 percent per year for the sixth year in a row. The increasing competitiveness of China has been driving the efficiency of production, innovation and growth of global exports to new heights. Regional production networks in East Asia grew substantially in the past few years and were largely centered on China. This volume aims to help guide policymakers in assessing the second generation trade issues and their development impact on China by presenting lessons from other countries and policy options. Trade is a strategic area in which the World Bank has been working closely with China with the aim to promote the country's participation in the multinational economic institutions, to reduce its barriers to trade and investment, and to involve it more in global development and cross-border learning initiatives. This volume would not have been possible without collaboration with the Chinese Ministries of Finance, Commerce, and Agriculture. It has also incorporated valuable contributions from Chinese researchers in the trade area. Studies in this collection have been disseminated in a series of workshops and learning events co-organized by the World Bank and the Chinese counterparts in Beijing, which served as a forum for policy dialogue among the Chinese policy makers, trade negotiators, and scholars from development and international perspectives. -
Publication
China in Regional Trade Agreements : Competition Provisions
(World Bank, 2009-06-30)This report is structured in three volumes: competition provisions; environment provisions; and labor mobility provisions. The main messages of this three volumes are as follows: 1) competition laws and policies are increasingly being established at the regional level, as they could be instrumental in supporting the benefits of trade and investment liberalization; 2) China may want to use the opportunity of these negotiations to: (a) further discipline its state-owned enterprises;(b) carefully consider the possible role of antidumping policies; and (c) promote and lock-in domestic reforms aimed at improving its domestic competition policies; 3) with a shift of the development agenda from primarily pursuing growth to achieving a more balanced and sustainable development and taking into account China's high reliance on trade, it may be increasingly in China's interest to pro-actively engage its partners on environmental issues in its regional trade agreement (RTA) negotiations; and 4) while the world economy stands to gain massively from liberalization in the mobility of labor, adverse popular reaction to the economic and social impacts of immigrants has kept progress in enhancing global labor mobility well below progress in trade and capital liberalization. -
Publication
Sovereign Wealth Funds in East Asia
(Washington, DC, 2008-06-30)The massive size, rapid growth, and high-profile investments of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) in the U.S. and elsewhere in 2007 has attracted the attention of the media, politicians, regulators, and academics over the past year. Some of the SWF investments have been viewed as market stabilizing, for instance the substantial equity investments in large U.S. financial institutions that were recently in financial trouble after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. However, there is great suspicion from many political and academic quarters that SWFs are politically motivated with many SWFs in Asia now at the center of the storm. Although SWFs have been in existence for many decades worldwide, most SWFs in the East Asia and Pacific Region (EAP) are relatively new. The emergence of the SWFs in Asia is largely a by-product of the strong economic development at East Asian countries and the attendant accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, however, there are other types of SWFs in the region. The Governments have taken a concerted strategy to enhance the returns on these excess reserves. The EAP region is an ideal region to take a look at the issues surrounding SWFs since Asia has the full range of funds from long-established funds to brand new funds; from passive portfolio investors to more aggressive strategic investors; from resource-backed funds to foreign reserve-backed funds; and, based in the largest, most highly developed economies to the smallest, poorest economies in Asia. Therefore, the objective of this report is to document the status of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the East Asia Region and to understand the implications of their rapid growth. Many developing countries have recently shifted a higher proportion of their foreign currency earnings from official foreign currency reserves to sovereign wealth funds. Sovereign wealth funds have an estimated $600 billion in assets under management in developing countries, dominated by China ($200 billion held by the Chinese Investment Corporation and $68 billion held by the Central Huijin Investment Company) and Russia ($130 billion held in the Reserve Fund and $33 billion held by the Fund of Future Generations). It should be noted that this amount is small relative to the total level of reserves held by developing countries (estimated at $3.7 trillion at end 2007). -
Publication
China Capital Markets Development Report : China Securities Regulation Commission
(China Financial Publishing House, 2008-01)The 'China capital markets development report' provides a good overview of the development of China's capital markets and explores future strategies. The report starts by reviewing historical events in the evolution of China's capital markets which have grown from small and unorganized regional markets into a national market today. By summarizing lessons learned during the market evolution and analyzing major gaps between China's capital markets and more mature markets, the report tries to propose a strategic design and vision for China's capital markets development for the next decade and beyond. Since the commencement of economic reform and opening up, China has gone through significant economic and social changes, and the socialist market economic regime has been established and steadily improved. Between 1979 and 2007, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been growing above 9 percent annually on average and China has become the fourth largest economy in the World. China's capital markets emerged and developed during the same period. With joint efforts by all relevant parties, China's capital markets have been able to reach a level of development that took many mature markets decades or even a hundred years to achieve. Along the way, the legal and regulatory frameworks, and trading and clearing systems have developed according to international best practice and China's capital markets have been increasingly recognized by international investors. The emergence and development of capital markets has been closely linked to mass production. They are the prerequisite for, and important indicators of, a modern market economy. Capital markets promote the development and improvement of market-driven resource allocation, resulting in the optimization of social resources. As the world financial markets become increasingly global and integrated, competition among capital markets and financial centers around the world is becoming increasingly intensive, leading to a fast-changing landscape in capital markets. The competitiveness and viability of the capital markets have become important components of national competitiveness.