Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study

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  • Publication
    Chad Growth and Diversification: Leveraging Export Diversification to Foster Growth
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05-30) World Bank
    This report describes the key policies for Chad to successfully leverage export diversification to foster economic growth. After several unsuccessful attempts at diversifying in the 1990s, Chad has deepened its dependence on commodities, mainly relying on oil; which came to replace cotton. However, the experience of other countries, in Africa and other parts of the world, shows that while large scale production of oil resources offers great opportunities, it comes with major shortcomings. Chad’s Vision 2030 is to become an emerging economy, driven by diversified and sustainable sources of growth. The goal is to triple the average GDP per capita at current prices, by increasing it from US$ 730 in 2014 to US$ 2300 in 2030, while drastically reducing the poverty rate from 46.7 percent in 2011 to 8 percent during the same period. Chad’s economy is overly dependent on crude petroleum, which makes it vulnerable to external shocks. Therefore, to achieve this development goal, only an export diversification strategy can foster a larger menu of goods and services than can become growth-accelerating and job-creating activities. Its implementation challenges are formidable, but the country has little choice, as the social unrest following recurrent oil price slumps, its burgeoning youth population and regional security threats may foment more violence in an already fragile and volatile economy and keep investors away. Hence, this report outlines a strategy to achieve this vision centered on the diversification of its non-oil economy (mainly agricultural-based exports) away from natural resource-based commodities.
  • Publication
    Impact of the Libya Crisis on the Tunisian Economy
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02-01) World Bank
    This study assesses the main spillover effects of the Libyan crisis on the Tunisian economy and estimates the crisis’ overall social welfare and fiscal impacts on Tunisia. The authors consider four main effects on Tunisia: (i) the increased presence of Libyans in Tunisia (both short- and long-term), and the return of Tunisian workers from Libya; (ii) the level and dynamics of illicit informal trade and informal cash flows between the two countries; (iii) the deterioration of civil security in the region and its effects on private investment and tourism; and (iv) the increase in the Tunisian government’s security spending. The chapter is organized as follows. Section one describes the objectives of the investigation and methodology. Section two estimates the number of Libyans living in Tunisia (temporary and permanent) and their demographic characteristics. Section three analyzes the living conditions of Libyan households in Tunisia and provides an estimate of their poverty level. Section four analyzes the shocks to Libyan households, and those households’ adaptations and resilience in response to shocks. Section five discusses the migratory decisions of Libyan households, in particular their preference to either return to Libya or remain permanently in Tunisia.
  • Publication
    Timor-Leste - Oecusse Economic and Trade Potential: Detailed Analysis and Background Documents
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05) World Bank Group
    This report responds to a request from the Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) and Dr. Mari Alkatiri. The request was for World Bank assistance to collaborate on a range of studies relating to opportunities in the special economic zone, including community development, trade and competitiveness, and regional integration. The analysis builds on a situation analysis prepared by the Zona Especial de Economia Social de Mercado (ZEESM) authority in March 2014. The transfer of significant responsibility for Oecusse’s development to the ZEESM authority, reflects a political rapprochement and collaboration between Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and Dr. Alkatiri. The report is in two volumes. Volume one presents an overview of Oecusse’s current state in chapter one with analysis of living standards, economic activity including trade, and current constraints. Chapter two analyzes Oecusse’s phased economic potential through a range of phase one development interventions focusing on agriculture, and considers the pre-requisites for developing an SEZ in Oecusse. Volume two contains more comprehensive background chapters with full analysis of living standards in chapter three, agriculture in chapter four, transport corridor in chapter five, and migration in chapter six.
  • Publication
    Timor-Leste - Oecusse Economic and Trade Potential: Overview of Oecusse Today and Long Term Potential
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05) World Bank Group
    This report responds to a request from the Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) and Dr. Mari Alkatiri. The request was for World Bank assistance to collaborate on a range of studies relating to opportunities in the special economic zone, including community development, trade and competitiveness, and regional integration. The analysis builds on a situation analysis prepared by the Zona Especial de Economia Social de Mercado (ZEESM) authority in March 2014. The transfer of significant responsibility for Oecusse’s development to the ZEESM authority, reflects a political rapprochement and collaboration between Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and Dr. Alkatiri. The report is in two volumes. Volume one presents an overview of Oecusse’s current state in chapter one with analysis of living standards, economic activity including trade, and current constraints. Chapter two analyzes Oecusse’s phased economic potential through a range of phase one development interventions focusing on agriculture, and considers the pre-requisites for developing an SEZ in Oecusse. Volume two contains more comprehensive background chapters with full analysis of living standards in chapter three, agriculture in chapter four, transport corridor in chapter five, and migration in chapter six.
  • Publication
    Political Economy of Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02-01) Brenton, Paul; Brenton, Paul; Hoffman, Barak
    Regional integration in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is crucial for its further economic development and, more importantly, its structural transformation away from agriculture towards higher value-added activities, such as manufacturing and services. Yet there are many paths towards greater integration, some of which are easier than others. In order to gain insights into how regional integration is occurring in SSA, determine impediments to it, and develop recommendations for how the World Bank and other development agencies can help further facilitate it, the World Bank commissioned a set of political economy of regional integration studies covering sector analyses of agriculture, financial services, professional services, trade facilitation, and transport. This report summarizes the findings from the sector studies and suggests recommendations for further efforts in these areas by the World Bank and other development agencies. In a comparative context, the findings of the studies suggest cautious optimism for regional integration efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Economic integration is more likely to succeed when it occurs alongside regional attempts at improving political stability and or developing joint infrastructure.
  • Publication
    Services and Manufacturing Linkages: An Empirical Analysis for Lao PDR
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02) World Bank Group
    This report seeks to shed light on the ways in which the services sector has contributed to Lao PDR’s competitiveness and integration into the global marketplace. It focuses on two complementary roles that the services sector plays: first, as an avenue for export diversification and growth and, second,by providing inputs into other productive sectors of the economy, such as the manufacturing sector. As economies grow, the importance of the services sector generally increases, but its role as an enabler of other sectors of the economy in moving up the value chain is frequently overlooked. However, the services sector is critical in raising competitiveness of these other sectors to boost growth and create better quality jobs. The main policy recommendations that emerge from this report are aimed at increasing competition in the services sector, reducing distortive regulations, and opening up the sector to foreign participation, building up skills, both at the individual and at the firm level, and investing in hard and soft infrastructure to promote the development of the sector.
  • Publication
    The Republic of Benin Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update: From Rents to Competitiveness
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-05) World Bank Group
    The Government of Benin has requested an update of the 2005 Diagnostic Trade Integration Study and has asked the World Bank to take the leading role in this exercise. The update’s objectives are to (a) take stock of progress in the mainstreaming of trade in the government’s national development strategy and of implementation of the Action Matrix recommendations; (b) complement and deepen the analysis in selected areas; and (c) revise and update the Action Matrix to take account of the evolving context since 2006. The aim of the analysis is to assist the Government of Benin in defining an overall competitiveness strategy for inclusive, job-creating export-led growth in accordance with the key priorities identified in the 2013 Plan Stratégique de Développement du Commerce (PSDC), and to further mainstream trade into the general policy orientation defined by Benin’s key policy documents, including the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRSP) update. The DTIS Update (DTISU) offers a diagnosis, analytical framework and action plan, giving trade expansion a key role in the reduction of poverty and vulnerability. As mandated by the Paris Principles, the DTISU’s approach is strongly aligned with the MICPME’s PSDC (Trade Development Strategy Plan, henceforth TDSP) and draws also from the diagnosis in the Government of Benin’s recent poverty assessment (INSAE 2014) as well as the 2011 update of the GPRSP. It emphasizes the linkages between poverty, jobs, and trade with two key objectives: (i) reducing poverty through trade-led growth, and (ii) reducing vulnerability.
  • Publication
    The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04) Calì, Massimiliano; Harake, Wissam; Hassan, Fadi; Struck, Clemens
    The devastating civil war in Syria is arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times. The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014 caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure, prevented children from going to school, closed factories and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the main channels through which the effects of the crisis are transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in neighboring countries. Moreover, to the extent that Syria has become harder to cross, the war may have made trade through Syria more difficult. At the same time producers in neighboring countries may have replaced Syrian producers in Syria and in other markets as their productive assets in Syria were destroyed. This report examines the effects of the Syrian war on the Lebanese economy via one of the most important channels through which the economic impact of the war occurs, i.e. the trade channel. In doing so, it partly updates and extends the previous economic assessment of World Bank (2013b) carried out last year. Focusing specifically on trade allows us to examine in more depth the trade effects than that report was able to do. Indeed, we go beyond the effects on aggregate and sectoral imports and exports to also examine the effects on exports at firms’ level, comparing the effects in Lebanon with those in other neighboring countries, including Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.