Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
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Publication
Vietnam: Deepening International Integration and Implementing the EVFTA
(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA. -
Publication
Import Duties and Performance: Some Stylized Facts for Pakistan
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05)This note discusses the role that import duties have in Pakistan’s economy, and their links with export competitiveness. Import duties play two key roles. First, they are a source of tax revenues for governments. Second, when imposed on a product, they create a wedge between its world price, and the price paid domestically (as well as a wedge between its domestic price, and the price of its substitute in the domestic economy). These wedges affect the allocation of resources. They divert resources away from export markets - in which firms will only fetch world prices for the product - and into the domestic market, effectively creating an anti-export bias. Thus, an import duty is implicitly an export duty. When these duties are applied on inputs that different sectors use to produce, the duty induces firms to substitute away from that - now more expensive - input, and into other substitutes, thus affecting the otherwise optimal technological choice of firms, as well as increasing their production costs. This note is organized as follows: the first section presents a snapshot of import duties in Pakistan. The second section empirically examines the ways import duties induce an allocation of resources that is different from the one that will be obtained without the duty distortion. The third section looks at the role of tariff policy in the context of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic. The fourth section briefly describes the recent changes in the tariff policy institutional arrangement. The fifth section concludes and provides policy recommendations moving forward. -
Publication
Chad Growth and Diversification: Leveraging Export Diversification to Foster Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05-30)This report describes the key policies for Chad to successfully leverage export diversification to foster economic growth. After several unsuccessful attempts at diversifying in the 1990s, Chad has deepened its dependence on commodities, mainly relying on oil; which came to replace cotton. However, the experience of other countries, in Africa and other parts of the world, shows that while large scale production of oil resources offers great opportunities, it comes with major shortcomings. Chad’s Vision 2030 is to become an emerging economy, driven by diversified and sustainable sources of growth. The goal is to triple the average GDP per capita at current prices, by increasing it from US$ 730 in 2014 to US$ 2300 in 2030, while drastically reducing the poverty rate from 46.7 percent in 2011 to 8 percent during the same period. Chad’s economy is overly dependent on crude petroleum, which makes it vulnerable to external shocks. Therefore, to achieve this development goal, only an export diversification strategy can foster a larger menu of goods and services than can become growth-accelerating and job-creating activities. Its implementation challenges are formidable, but the country has little choice, as the social unrest following recurrent oil price slumps, its burgeoning youth population and regional security threats may foment more violence in an already fragile and volatile economy and keep investors away. Hence, this report outlines a strategy to achieve this vision centered on the diversification of its non-oil economy (mainly agricultural-based exports) away from natural resource-based commodities. -
Publication
Impact of the Libya Crisis on the Tunisian Economy
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02-01)This study assesses the main spillover effects of the Libyan crisis on the Tunisian economy and estimates the crisis’ overall social welfare and fiscal impacts on Tunisia. The authors consider four main effects on Tunisia: (i) the increased presence of Libyans in Tunisia (both short- and long-term), and the return of Tunisian workers from Libya; (ii) the level and dynamics of illicit informal trade and informal cash flows between the two countries; (iii) the deterioration of civil security in the region and its effects on private investment and tourism; and (iv) the increase in the Tunisian government’s security spending. The chapter is organized as follows. Section one describes the objectives of the investigation and methodology. Section two estimates the number of Libyans living in Tunisia (temporary and permanent) and their demographic characteristics. Section three analyzes the living conditions of Libyan households in Tunisia and provides an estimate of their poverty level. Section four analyzes the shocks to Libyan households, and those households’ adaptations and resilience in response to shocks. Section five discusses the migratory decisions of Libyan households, in particular their preference to either return to Libya or remain permanently in Tunisia. -
Publication
Timor-Leste - Oecusse Economic and Trade Potential: Overview of Oecusse Today and Long Term Potential
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05)This report responds to a request from the Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) and Dr. Mari Alkatiri. The request was for World Bank assistance to collaborate on a range of studies relating to opportunities in the special economic zone, including community development, trade and competitiveness, and regional integration. The analysis builds on a situation analysis prepared by the Zona Especial de Economia Social de Mercado (ZEESM) authority in March 2014. The transfer of significant responsibility for Oecusse’s development to the ZEESM authority, reflects a political rapprochement and collaboration between Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and Dr. Alkatiri. The report is in two volumes. Volume one presents an overview of Oecusse’s current state in chapter one with analysis of living standards, economic activity including trade, and current constraints. Chapter two analyzes Oecusse’s phased economic potential through a range of phase one development interventions focusing on agriculture, and considers the pre-requisites for developing an SEZ in Oecusse. Volume two contains more comprehensive background chapters with full analysis of living standards in chapter three, agriculture in chapter four, transport corridor in chapter five, and migration in chapter six. -
Publication
Timor-Leste - Oecusse Economic and Trade Potential: Detailed Analysis and Background Documents
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05)This report responds to a request from the Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) and Dr. Mari Alkatiri. The request was for World Bank assistance to collaborate on a range of studies relating to opportunities in the special economic zone, including community development, trade and competitiveness, and regional integration. The analysis builds on a situation analysis prepared by the Zona Especial de Economia Social de Mercado (ZEESM) authority in March 2014. The transfer of significant responsibility for Oecusse’s development to the ZEESM authority, reflects a political rapprochement and collaboration between Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and Dr. Alkatiri. The report is in two volumes. Volume one presents an overview of Oecusse’s current state in chapter one with analysis of living standards, economic activity including trade, and current constraints. Chapter two analyzes Oecusse’s phased economic potential through a range of phase one development interventions focusing on agriculture, and considers the pre-requisites for developing an SEZ in Oecusse. Volume two contains more comprehensive background chapters with full analysis of living standards in chapter three, agriculture in chapter four, transport corridor in chapter five, and migration in chapter six. -
Publication
Making the Most of Ports in West Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-04-06)Ports have always played an essential role in this highly trade-dependent region. While there are still wide disparities in terms of throughput volumes and capacity, traffic has been growing rapidly in most countries over the last decade. Overall, total throughput in West Africa grew from around 105 million tons in 2006 to 165 million tons in 2012. Likewise, containerized traffic remains limited in West Africa compared to other regions but has grown faster than in any other region in the world over the last five years. The combined throughput of container terminals in the region reached almost 5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2013, twice as much as a decade ago, and is expected to keep growing fast. The future throughput of West African ports comprises the demand for containerized trade generated by coastal and landlocked countries, and additional port movements generated by transshipment in regional hub(s). Given the regional dynamics of ports in West Africa, there is also a good case for more cooperation between West African countries on port reform, competition and regulation. Strengthening the capacity and mandate of regional institutions such as the ECOWAS Commission on these issues would complement regulatory efforts at the country level and provide a forum to analyze regional issues related to inter-port competition and private sector participation in port management. -
Publication
Services and Manufacturing Linkages: An Empirical Analysis for Lao PDR
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)This report seeks to shed light on the ways in which the services sector has contributed to Lao PDR’s competitiveness and integration into the global marketplace. It focuses on two complementary roles that the services sector plays: first, as an avenue for export diversification and growth and, second,by providing inputs into other productive sectors of the economy, such as the manufacturing sector. As economies grow, the importance of the services sector generally increases, but its role as an enabler of other sectors of the economy in moving up the value chain is frequently overlooked. However, the services sector is critical in raising competitiveness of these other sectors to boost growth and create better quality jobs. The main policy recommendations that emerge from this report are aimed at increasing competition in the services sector, reducing distortive regulations, and opening up the sector to foreign participation, building up skills, both at the individual and at the firm level, and investing in hard and soft infrastructure to promote the development of the sector. -
Publication
Political Economy of Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02-01)Regional integration in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is crucial for its further economic development and, more importantly, its structural transformation away from agriculture towards higher value-added activities, such as manufacturing and services. Yet there are many paths towards greater integration, some of which are easier than others. In order to gain insights into how regional integration is occurring in SSA, determine impediments to it, and develop recommendations for how the World Bank and other development agencies can help further facilitate it, the World Bank commissioned a set of political economy of regional integration studies covering sector analyses of agriculture, financial services, professional services, trade facilitation, and transport. This report summarizes the findings from the sector studies and suggests recommendations for further efforts in these areas by the World Bank and other development agencies. In a comparative context, the findings of the studies suggest cautious optimism for regional integration efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Economic integration is more likely to succeed when it occurs alongside regional attempts at improving political stability and or developing joint infrastructure. -
Publication
The Republic of Benin Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update: From Rents to Competitiveness
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-05)The Government of Benin has requested an update of the 2005 Diagnostic Trade Integration Study and has asked the World Bank to take the leading role in this exercise. The update’s objectives are to (a) take stock of progress in the mainstreaming of trade in the government’s national development strategy and of implementation of the Action Matrix recommendations; (b) complement and deepen the analysis in selected areas; and (c) revise and update the Action Matrix to take account of the evolving context since 2006. The aim of the analysis is to assist the Government of Benin in defining an overall competitiveness strategy for inclusive, job-creating export-led growth in accordance with the key priorities identified in the 2013 Plan Stratégique de Développement du Commerce (PSDC), and to further mainstream trade into the general policy orientation defined by Benin’s key policy documents, including the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRSP) update. The DTIS Update (DTISU) offers a diagnosis, analytical framework and action plan, giving trade expansion a key role in the reduction of poverty and vulnerability. As mandated by the Paris Principles, the DTISU’s approach is strongly aligned with the MICPME’s PSDC (Trade Development Strategy Plan, henceforth TDSP) and draws also from the diagnosis in the Government of Benin’s recent poverty assessment (INSAE 2014) as well as the 2011 update of the GPRSP. It emphasizes the linkages between poverty, jobs, and trade with two key objectives: (i) reducing poverty through trade-led growth, and (ii) reducing vulnerability.