Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study

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    Import Duties and Performance: Some Stylized Facts for Pakistan
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Varela, Gonzalo ; Gambetta, Juan Pedro ; Ganz, Federico ; Eberhard, Andreas ; Franco, Sebastian ; Lovo, Stefania
    This note discusses the role that import duties have in Pakistan’s economy, and their links with export competitiveness. Import duties play two key roles. First, they are a source of tax revenues for governments. Second, when imposed on a product, they create a wedge between its world price, and the price paid domestically (as well as a wedge between its domestic price, and the price of its substitute in the domestic economy). These wedges affect the allocation of resources. They divert resources away from export markets - in which firms will only fetch world prices for the product - and into the domestic market, effectively creating an anti-export bias. Thus, an import duty is implicitly an export duty. When these duties are applied on inputs that different sectors use to produce, the duty induces firms to substitute away from that - now more expensive - input, and into other substitutes, thus affecting the otherwise optimal technological choice of firms, as well as increasing their production costs. This note is organized as follows: the first section presents a snapshot of import duties in Pakistan. The second section empirically examines the ways import duties induce an allocation of resources that is different from the one that will be obtained without the duty distortion. The third section looks at the role of tariff policy in the context of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic. The fourth section briefly describes the recent changes in the tariff policy institutional arrangement. The fifth section concludes and provides policy recommendations moving forward.
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    Pakistan: Unlocking Private Sector Growth through Increased Trade and Investment Competitiveness
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) Rocha, Nadia ; Varela, Gonzalo
    Evidence suggests that Pakistan has the potential for much faster and more diversified economic growth. Energizing trade can help Pakistan to realize its growth potential. Pakistan’s inward-oriented trade policies have had the effect of stalling Pakistan’s integration into regional and global value chains (GVCs). Pakistan’s failure to reform its trade policy to better foster export competitiveness can be attributed in part to institutional fragmentation within the government. This fragmentation has resulted in different agencies sometimes working at cross purposes. Efforts to reduce tariffs have been offset by the introduction of alternative protection instruments such as regulatory duties (RDs) and firm-specific special regulatory orders (SROs). In addition to tariffs, RDs and SROs, other obstacles to global integration include a heavy regulatory burden and perceived risks to investing and operating in the country, which have hurt efforts to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Growth and competitiveness are also inhibited by inefficient trade facilitation policies, weak logistics services, and underdeveloped infrastructure. These constraints have made it difficult for Pakistan to fully exploit its proximity to China, a trade powerhouse, with which it has a free trade agreement. All in all, the anti-export bias of Pakistan’s trade policy has made it more difficult for outward-looking firms to grow by accessing global markets. A series of actions in the areas of trade policy, trade facilitation and connectivity, and institutional coordination could potentially stimulate Pakistan’s growth through increased trade and investment competitiveness. Integration with other countries in the region and neighboring regions, particularly East Asia, will allow Pakistan to diversify both its product basket and markets. Finally, full normalization of trade relations with India would allow Pakistan to benefit from India’s fast growth and promote complementarities, including valuechain activities and investment potential.
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    Uruguay: Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10) Portugal, Alberto ; Reyes, Jose-Daniel ; Varela, Gonzalo
    As a small economy, Uruguay’s growth and poverty reduction prospects are closely related to its performance in international markets. This report analyzes export dynamics in Uruguay over the period 2000-2013, benchmarking them against relevant comparator countries. It looks at export outcomes through four different dimensions of export performance: (1) the evolution, composition, and growth orientation of the country’s export basket; (2) the degree of diversification across products and markets; (3) the level of sophistication and quality; and (4) the survival rate of export relationships. The report offers a number of hypotheses for an in-depth competitiveness diagnostic of Uruguay’s external sector, as well as policy recommendations to increase integration and to gain from it. In addition to the real depreciation of the peso that followed the crisis, the international prices of Uruguay’s main export products soared. This stimulated investment in technological improvements in the production of these natural-resource-intensive products. Section one analyzes the macroeconomic environment in which exporters operate in Uruguay during the period of analysis. Section two looks at level, growth, composition, and market share performance of Uruguay’s exports, as well as the country’s main trading destinations. Section three focuses on the diversification of products and markets, considering several measures of concentration, including the share of top five products and markets in exports, and the Hirschman-Herfindahl index for Uruguay’s export portfolio. Sections four and five address quality and sophistication and survival, respectively.
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    Indonesia Current Account Assessment
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-07-01) Nedeljkovic, Milan ; Varela, Gonzalo ; Savini Zangrandi, Michele
    The analysis presented in this report suggests that Indonesia’s recent current account deficit results from the interaction of short, medium and long run factors that can be grouped into four blocks: external shocks, domestic policies, international integration, and stage of development and demographics.
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    Oriental Republic of Uruguay: Integration into Global Value Chains the Dairy Industry and the ICT Industry
    (World Bank, Buenos Aires, 2014) Criscuolo, Alberto ; Onugha, Ifeyinwa Uchenna ; Varela, Gonzalo
    Uruguay has much to gain from further integration with the global marketplace. Increased trade allows economies of scale and increases exposure to technological and knowledge spillovers, resulting in greater productivity. Participating in global and regional value chains is an important launch-pad for international integration. Uruguay requires a multipronged strategy that targets increased sophistication of Uruguay’s productive structure and diversification into specialized, high-value, modern services exports unconstrained by lack of economies of scale or distance. This report analyzes the dairy and Information & Communications Technology (ICT) and ICT Enabled Services (ICTES) value chains in Uruguay to identify opportunities for industry-specificupgrading and integration with global value chains (GVCs). By taking the dairy and ICT/ICTES value chains as concrete cases, the analysis piloted here illustrates how a traditional industry, locked in low value added exports, such as dairy, and a new export service industry, such as ICT/ICTES, can tackle the remoteness and ‘smallness’ challenges of Uruguay, and pursue economic upgrading andbetter international integration. The analytical approach targets opportunities to both enter new international production networks and participate in higher-value-added business segments. These objectives align with the Government of Uruguay’s priority to determine how the country can integrate better with global markets through GVCs. GVCs have four key features that set them apart from traditional production and trade: (1) customization of production—with intensive contracting between parties, often subject to distinct legal systems, (2) sequential production decisions going from the buyer to the suppliers, (3) high contracting costs, and (4) global matching not onlyof goods and services, but also of production teams. These distinct features of GVCs have implications for the overall business environment conducive to fertile grounds for GVCs to prosper, as well as for the types of trade facilitation efforts, infrastructure, skills, and trade and investment policies that are best suited for this reality.