Other Agriculture Study

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Regional Risks to Agriculture in West Africa: Agricultural Risk Impacts, Management Measures, and Financing Mechanisms Through a Regional Lens

(Washington, DC, 2020-12-31) World Bank

Agriculture is an increasingly risky business in much of the world, including the West African region. The World Bank has developed an Agricultural Risk Management (ARM) framework that assesses risks in systemic production, markets, and enabling environments to understand their total sectoral impacts and to prioritize them. Prioritizing risks improves targeting of risk management measures so that scarce resources can be allocated where they have the most impact. It also helps identify how to align other agriculture, environment, and social protection policies to manage existing risks. These risks are usually identified and managed at national levels, and the three key types are production risks, market risks, and enabling environment risks. This report focuses on how West African countries can benefit from collaboration in managing agrifood system risks and on the resulting need to adapt a regional lens to the ARM framework. Since both crop-specific growing areas and the risks they face often span national borders, there are substantial advantages that can be gained by stronger collaboration. There is a need to build layered approaches to manage risk that combine risk-mitigating, risk-transfer, and risk-coping instruments. These risk management approaches are needed within countries, with regional approaches building on national efforts. This report provides a foundational analysis to begin identifying needed actions for West African countries and at regional levels.
Paraiba State, Brazil: Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11) Arias, Diego ; Caballero, Jorge

This report is comprised of two volumes: (i) volume one: risk assessment; and (ii) volume two: risk management strategy. Volume one continues with chapter one, which characterizes the recent performance of the agriculture sector, including agro-climatic and market conditions. It also identifies the productive systems used for this analysis. Chapter two describes the main risks in the agricultural sector, capturing market, production, and enabling environment risks along the value chains involved in the selected productive system typologies. Chapter three presents the estimations of the aggregate impacts of unmanaged agricultural risk on agricultural losses and production volatility. Chapter four identifies risk profiles for different stakeholders, underlying the different types of risk impacts, and then highlights a vulnerability framework. Finally, chapter five presents a prioritization of risks and proposes a preliminary set of priority risk management measures. A short list of potential solution actions is offered as the starting point for a more in-depth solution analysis to be undertaken during the second phase of the risk assessment. Volume two is composed of four chapters. Chapter one provides a brief discussion on the agricultural risk profile and risk management options (solutions) in Paraiba and an inventory of current programs, projects and policies that in different ways address the main agricultural risks. Chapter two presents an overview of the key agricultural sector features as are relevant for understanding the ARM strategy. Chapter three presents the ARM strategy with respect to the intervention areas identified during the first phase, i.e. weather information system, Sanitary and Phytosanitary System (SPS), supply chain coordination, and Agroclimatic Information Systems, including concrete risk management actions. Chapter four incorporates detailed information on the proposed actions aggregated in strategic lines. It includes information about the estimated cost of the actions, the responsible institution and the timeframe. Moreover, a second table provides a short term calendar by institution.
Investment Contracts for Agriculture: Maximizing Gains and Minimizing Risks

(Washington, DC, 2015-06) World Bank

Private investment in agriculture in developing countries, both domestic and foreign, has been on the rise for nearly two decades. This paper focuses on large-scale agricultural projects in developing countries, involving the lease of farmland, which rose sharply after the food crisis of 2008. It is important that such investments are sustainable not only in the long term, but also beneficial in the short term with minimal risks or negative effects. This paper looks at one approach to achieving this namely, carefully devised contracts with investors, and in doing so offers a number of concrete solutions. This paper marries two substantial bodies of research to show how investment contracts can be set up to promote sustainable development. The paper presents the top five positive outcomes and the five downsides from private sector investments in large scale agricultural projects. This is derived from empirical evidence gathered by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Bank after visiting large-scale agricultural projects (UNCTAD and World Bank 2014). The paper then proposes legal options to maximizing the main positive outcomes and minimizing the main downsides through better drafting of contracts between investors and governments for the lease of farmland. This derived from work conducted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), which studied almost 80 contracts and produced a guide to negotiating contracts for farmland and water, including a model contract.
Cambodian Agriculture in Transition: Opportunities and Risks

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-05-19) World Bank Group

This report seeks to understand the successes, challenges and opportunities of Cambodia’s agricultural transformation over the past decade to derive lessons and insights on how to maintain future agricultural growth, and particularly on the government’s role in facilitating it. It is prepared per the request of the Supreme National Economic Council and the Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries and is based on the primary farm data surveys from 2005 and 2013, and the secondary data from various sources. In 2013-2014, the agricultural growth slowed down to 1 percent from its average of 5.3 percent over 2004-2012. Is the country in transition to a slower agricultural growth? Cambodia can ill afford it because agricultural growth will be critical to continued poverty reduction in the country, given its large size in the economy. Market and private investment friendly policies and targeted public sector investments in irrigation, extension, and other ‘public good’ agricultural services, as feasible within the government’s total budget, can help secure continued robust agricultural growth. The remaining report is organized as follows. Chapter two presents key facts about Cambodia’s recent agricultural development using data from national accounts and various reports. Chapter three provides evidence from the field that explains the changes observed in the national accounts. Chapter four illustrates developments in farming systems, farm budgets, and farm incomes compared to nonfarm incomes. Chapter five presents a farm competitiveness analysis. Chapter six discusses the sources of past growth and their limitations and presents an analysis of (likely) future sources of agricultural growth. Chapter seven presents a long-term vision for the sector, while chapter eight simulates policies and the changes in farm incomes needed to realize this vision. Chapter nine discusses the policy agenda, with implementation details based on national and global experiences. Chapter ten concludes with a summary of the report and policy recommendations. Annexes present the methodology of the 2013 farm survey, detailed farm budgets by crop, projections of selected indicators, and results of the policy simulations.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Agricultural Sector Review: Revitalizing Agriculture for Economic Growth, Job Creation and Food Security

(Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank

Economic growth, job creation, and development are central to the decade of transformation (2015-25) and long-term security for the people of Afghanistan. The Bank and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) recognize that agriculture and rural development are a key to inclusive growth, and hence need renewed vigor and strategic long-term investments. Further, the Bank and the GoIRA acknowledge that increases in agricultural productivity and market access for smallholders are critical for rural development, job creation, and food security in Afghanistan. Sections two and three of this report describe the agricultural sector and its current and potential roles in the Afghan economy, and present the rationale for choosing certain areas and subsectors for a selective 'first mover' strategy to achieve early gains. Section four outlines the constraints and potential in each of the three value chains proposed for the selective strategy, irrigated wheat, intensive livestock production, and horticulture. Section five describes cross-cutting constraints and how best to address them, and Section six proposes measures to help the rural poor who will not benefit much from the first-mover strategy. Section seven summarizes the recommendations of the review and their expected results for jobs and incomes.
Republic of India : Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth

(Washington, DC, 2014-05-21) World Bank

In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan, depends critically on simultaneous efforts to improve agriculture's performance and develop new sources of employment for the disproportionately large share of the labor force still on the farm. The scope of this study is broad in the sense that it marshals considerable empirical evidence and analyses to address those issues. Yet the scope is restricted in the sense that the study does not address all of the issues. A wealth of knowledge exists (and continuing analytical work proceeds) on other major strategic issues, water and irrigation management, food grain management, and public expenditures on agriculture, for example, and the findings of this study must be seen in that context. The lack of sufficient quality data, and often the lack of access to such data, also prevents some issues from being explored in greater depth. Finally, some important issues require more focused and dedicated analysis, such as food safety and quality standards, agricultural trade, and food price increases. This relationship between longer-term strategic issues and contemporary concerns, such as water resource management and food prices, are highlighted in this study through the prism of productivity, but they too require further analysis to fully address the underlying issues.
Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of : Analysis of the Agricultural Support Programs

(Washington, DC, 2013-10) World Bank

The report is structured to allow readers familiar with Macedonia s agriculture sector to quickly grasp the essentials needed to improve the sector, as well as to inform a general audience on how to address the challenges of a modern European Union (EU)-aspiring state. Chapter two provides an in-depth analysis of the sectoral background, illustrating the main characteristics and challenges of Macedonia s agriculture sector. The illustration takes an integrated approach to the sector, covering a vast range of inter-related topics including the prominence of the sector not only in terms of its economic and social contribution but also its implications for trade, the urban-rural poverty gap and shared prosperity, farm structure, climate adaptation, and capacity building. Chapter three draws on lessons from the European Union (EU) and provides a framework to analyze Macedonia s agricultural support programs. Further, the chapter provides a primer on the EU s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and its measures to support agriculture. Chapter four presents concise empirical evidence of the coverage and institutional capacity of the agricultural programs in Macedonia under both pillar one and pillar two measures. Chapter five then builds on the primary diagnostic set out in the previous chapters and critically examines the alignment of Macedonia s agricultural programs with the government s stated objectives of poverty reduction, competitiveness, and sustainable development. The results are at best mixed, suggesting substantial pathways for scaling up and exploiting untapped opportunities. Finally, chapter six synthesizes the overall evidence and presents policy implications and recommendations.
Support for Agricultural Restructuring Project : The Financial and Economic Competitiveness of Rice and Selected Feed Crops in Northern and Southern Vietnam

(Washington, DC, 2013-01) World Bank

One area of weakness in current agricultural policy work in Vietnam is the lack of a clear understanding of both the private profitability of farmers for different crop activities and the social profitability of such activities. Agricultural performance is thus gauged in physical terms (i.e. yields and the volume of aggregate output) rather than in financial or economic terms. This has hampered efforts to compare and contrast the impacts and effectiveness of alternative policy and program measures. Comparative metrics for different crops and farm management systems have been lacking. The main objectives of this paper are: (i) to describe the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology and how to interpret key financial and economic indicators; (ii) to document the underlying assumptions used for the analysis; and (iii) to provide a summary and brief interpretation of the main quantitative results and outcome of selected sensitivity tests. As a step towards improved sector planning, this paper utilizes the PAM to analyze various farm management systems for rice, maize, and cassava in different parts of Vietnam. Tradeoffs are involved in all production decisions and the PAM provides a systematic way of comparing the private and underlying social costs and returns from different agriculture enterprises together with the effects of government policy. The paper is presented in following five sections: section one is introduction; section two describes the methodology and main assumptions used for the analysis; section three presents the main quantitative results for different kinds of rice grown for export in An Giang province in the Mekong delta of southern Vietnam and for domestic rice and alternative stock feed crops grown in northern Vietnam; section four presents the results of various sensitivity tests that looked at the impact of changes in crop yields, commodity prices, fertilizer costs, and labor costs; and section five concludes with a summary of key findings and policy recommendations.
Livestock and Livelihoods in Rural Tanzania : A Descriptive Analysis of the 2009 National Panel Survey

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-06) Covarrubias, Katia ; Nsiima, Longin ; Zezza, Alberto

In 2006, the government approved a national livestock policy based on the premise that the livestock industry has an important role to play in building a strong national economy and in the process, reducing inequalities among Tanzanians by increasing their incomes and employment opportunities. This report presents an analysis of rural livelihoods in Tanzania, with particular emphasis on the livestock sub-sector, smallholder farmers' living standards, and issues with access to productive assets. The report attempts to answer basic questions such as: to what extent is keeping livestock an activity of the relatively better off, and to what extent are poorer households able to engage?; how does the role of livestock vary with different levels of income and well-being?; how are livestock holding size and structure associated with differences in welfare, gender, and geography?; how important are input and output markets for small livestock keepers?; what form does this market participation take in practice, and to what extent?; and to what extent do the non-income services of livestock (for example, manure, draught power) benefit crop production? The study is based on data from the Tanzania national panel survey (NPS) collected by the national bureau of statistics (NBS) from October 2008 to October 2009 as part of the first wave of a nationally representative living standards survey. Data was collected using household, agricultural, and community questionnaires in which information was obtained at the individual, household, plot, and community level The report is organized as follows: section one gives background information; description of the data is presented in section two, in section three the authors analyze the composition of rural income, household endowment of human capital, and access to infrastructure and assets, in order to gain an understanding of the level of wellbeing in the rural space. A descriptive analysis of the characteristics of small rural livestock owners and their production practices is provided in section four, which highlights the heterogeneity of the households engaged in the livestock sector and presents evidence of the sector's importance to rural livelihoods in terms of both income and consumption. Section five concludes with a discussion of key results and their implications for policy and further analysis.
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 4. Horticulture Sector Review

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012) World Bank

Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular.