Other Agriculture Study

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    Promoting Agri-Food Sector Transformation in Bangladesh: Policy and Investment Priorities
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05-27) World Bank
    The agriculture sector has been critically important in reducing poverty in Bangladesh, and further progress in agriculture will remain important as Bangladesh’s economy continues to evolve. Declining agricultural productivity growth poses substantial risk to the development of the rural economy. There are substantial market opportunities for productive diversification and increased value addition for the agri-food sector in Bangladesh. The agri-food ecosystem analysis carried out for this study identifies critical constraints to the diversification and modernization of the agri-food sector. The Covid-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has hit Bangladesh’s economy and its agri-food sector hard and lasting impacts can be expected on the sector. The overall aim of this report is to identify policy and public investment opportunities for increasing agricultural diversification and creating an enabling business environment for private sector investment along the agri-food supply chain using the maximizing finance for development (MFD) framework. The report is intended to provide guidance to the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) to implement and operationalize the strategic priorities of agricultural diversification and commercialization, as outlined in national agricultural policy 2018, to improve farms’ incomes, create rural jobs, and attain nutrition security in the country. The report is also intended to inform the World Bank’s strategies and dialogue for agriculture and rural development in Bangladesh and sharpen priorities for future engagement on agri-food sector modernization initiatives.
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    Bangladesh Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan: Investment Opportunities in the Agriculture Sector’s Transition to a Climate Resilient Growth Path
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26) World Bank Group
    Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is the country’s main source of food security, employment, and poverty alleviation. More than 70 percent of Bangladesh’s population and 77 percent of its workforce lives in rural areas. Nearly half of all Bangladeshi workers and two-thirds of workers in rural areas are directly employed in agriculture. About 87 percent of the nation’s rural households rely on agriculture for at least part of their income. With one of the fastest rates of productivity growth in the world (averaging 2.7 percent per year since 1995, second only to China), Bangladesh’s agriculture sector accounted for 90 percent of the country’s reduction in poverty between 2005 and 2010. This growth has also allowed the country to triple its rice production since it gained independence in 1971 and to halve its food deficit, and with it the number of malnourished people, since the mid-1990s. In 1991, nearly two-thirds of Bangladeshi children were underweight; today that number is less than one-third. Bangladesh faces growing demand for food and pressure from rapid land use change including significant losses of arable land. Population increases to an estimated 186 million by 2030 and 202 million by 2050, increasing income levels, and rapid urbanization at a rate of 3.5 percent annually 1 are expected to shift diets away from rice and wheat toward animal-based diets. At the same time, while Bangladesh produces almost all its own rice, current yield trends indicate production will not be able to satisfy growing demand for cereals (including rice), which is projected to increase 21 percent by 2030 and 24 percent by 2050. Given the increasing population density and continued loss of arable land caused by urbanization and other factors, enhancing the productivity of rice and other staple foods remains crucial. These trends suggest that Bangladesh must sustainably increase food production on far less arable land per capita to continue to strive for self-sufficiency in agricultural production. The World Bank considers climate-smart agriculture (CSA) a strategic priority investment in response to climate change in agriculture. The executive directors of the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank Group have recognized the need to address several concerning trends in the world’s poorest countries, including the growing demand for food, the unsustainable pressure of current agricultural practices on agricultural landscapes, the increasing threat of climate change to agricultural productivity, and agriculture’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.
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    India - Unlocking Agribusiness for Inclusive Growth, Jobs, and More: Policy and Investment Priorities
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-07-01) World Bank Group
    Major changes are occurring in the Indian economy that should inform public policy and investments in the food sector. The main drivers of changes occurring in the Indian economy include rising per capita incomes and urbanization. These patterns have led to increased demand for food and food services, including postharvest management activities, food retailing, and restaurants. Aggregate demand for food has increased, and consumption patterns are shifting toward fresh fruits and vegetables, processed foods, and ready-to-eat foods and meals. To meet the emerging demand, farmers need to respond by not only diversifying production toward foods with increasing demand but also with postharvest management. The objective of this report is to identify policy and investment priorities in agribusiness to stimulate inclusive growth and jobs. The study ultimately seeks to inform strategic dialogue between the government of India and the World Bank Group toward investments in postharvest management and other segments of agribusiness. The report provides building blocks to identify priorities for policy and investment. After a brief introduction (chapter 1), chapter 2 presents a framework to understand the role of agribusiness in development. Chapter 3 provides estimates of productivity and capital investment gaps in various subsectors of agribusiness and simulates the effects of bridging those gaps on macroeconomic indicators, sectoral growth, and jobs. Chapter 4 provides lessons on using agribusiness to improve nutrition. Chapter 5 provides lessons on promoting cold chain development. Chapter 6 provides lessons on promoting agroprocessing. Chapter 7 provides lessons on promoting inclusive value chains for modern food retailing. Finally, chapter 8 provides policy and investment priorities in agribusiness based on the main findings of the report.
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    Nepal: Sources of Growth in Agriculture for Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-12-01) World Bank Group
    Agriculture contributes about 35 percent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nepal. But growth in the sector has been quite volatile in the last decade, tothe extent that the lowest and highest growth rates were recorded in consecutive years. Nepal agriculture is characterized by relatively low yields compared to neighboring countries. Furthermore,land is disproportionately allocated to grain staples (rice, maize, wheat, millet, barley, and buckwheat),despite fruits and vegetables showing relatively higher yields and higher growth in consumption. A proper understanding of the sources of agriculture growth would help identify what kind of agriculture offers most potential to further reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity.Nepal is increasingly becoming a net importer of food, both in high value foods such asfruits and vegetables as well as staples such as rice, potatoes, and maize. Expanding exports would require investments in infrastructure and a conducive regulatory environment to certify that products from Nepal achieve the various Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary standards of foreign markets. The main objective of this report is to identify policy and investment priorities to stimulate agricultural growth for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The study ultimately seeks to inform strategic dialogue between Government of Nepal and the World Bank Group towards investments inagriculture and supporting sectors. The report provides building blocks to identify policy andinvestments priorities. After a brief Introduction, Chapter 2 examines the main drivers of agriculturefor poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The key issues addressed are drivers of agricultural income, drivers of total factor productivity growth, emerging patterns of diversification, degree of mechanization, and constraints to investments in the sector. Chapter 3 examines the effects of public expenditures in fertilizer and seed distribution programs, paying specific attention to effects on: supply of fertilizers, fertilizer application rates, retail prices, private sector participation, performance of the distribution chain, relative access between various categories of farmers, and consistency of the program with inequalities in the distribution of poverty and food and nutritional security. Chapter 4 generates lessons on policy and investments to expand exports. Chapter 5 generates lessons on policy and investments to substitute imports. Chapter 6 provides overall recommendations for policy and investments priorities, while distinguishing between actions needed to stimulate broad-based productivity growth with actions need for export promotion and import substitution.
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    Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Agricultural Sector Review: Revitalizing Agriculture for Economic Growth, Job Creation and Food Security
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank
    Economic growth, job creation, and development are central to the decade of transformation (2015-25) and long-term security for the people of Afghanistan. The Bank and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) recognize that agriculture and rural development are a key to inclusive growth, and hence need renewed vigor and strategic long-term investments. Further, the Bank and the GoIRA acknowledge that increases in agricultural productivity and market access for smallholders are critical for rural development, job creation, and food security in Afghanistan. Sections two and three of this report describe the agricultural sector and its current and potential roles in the Afghan economy, and present the rationale for choosing certain areas and subsectors for a selective 'first mover' strategy to achieve early gains. Section four outlines the constraints and potential in each of the three value chains proposed for the selective strategy, irrigated wheat, intensive livestock production, and horticulture. Section five describes cross-cutting constraints and how best to address them, and Section six proposes measures to help the rural poor who will not benefit much from the first-mover strategy. Section seven summarizes the recommendations of the review and their expected results for jobs and incomes.
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    Republic of India : Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth
    (Washington, DC, 2014-05-21) World Bank
    In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan, depends critically on simultaneous efforts to improve agriculture's performance and develop new sources of employment for the disproportionately large share of the labor force still on the farm. The scope of this study is broad in the sense that it marshals considerable empirical evidence and analyses to address those issues. Yet the scope is restricted in the sense that the study does not address all of the issues. A wealth of knowledge exists (and continuing analytical work proceeds) on other major strategic issues, water and irrigation management, food grain management, and public expenditures on agriculture, for example, and the findings of this study must be seen in that context. The lack of sufficient quality data, and often the lack of access to such data, also prevents some issues from being explored in greater depth. Finally, some important issues require more focused and dedicated analysis, such as food safety and quality standards, agricultural trade, and food price increases. This relationship between longer-term strategic issues and contemporary concerns, such as water resource management and food prices, are highlighted in this study through the prism of productivity, but they too require further analysis to fully address the underlying issues.
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    Republic of India : Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth
    (Washington, DC, 2014-05-21) World Bank Group
    In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan, depends critically on simultaneous efforts to improve agriculture's performance and develop new sources of employment for the disproportionately large share of the labor force still on the farm. The scope of this study is broad in the sense that it marshals considerable empirical evidence and analyses to address those issues. Yet the scope is restricted in the sense that the study does not address all of the issues. A wealth of knowledge exists (and continuing analytical work proceeds) on other major strategic issues, water and irrigation management, food grain management, and public expenditures on agriculture, for example, and the findings of this study must be seen in that context. The lack of sufficient quality data, and often the lack of access to such data, also prevents some issues from being explored in greater depth. Finally, some important issues require more focused and dedicated analysis, such as food safety and quality standards, agricultural trade, and food price increases. This relationship between longer-term strategic issues and contemporary concerns, such as water resource management and food prices, are highlighted in this study through the prism of productivity, but they too require further analysis to fully address the underlying issues.
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    Increased Productivity and Food Security, Enhanced Resilience and Reduced Carbon Emissions for Sustainable Development: Opportunities and Challenges for a Converging Agenda - Country Examples
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-10) World Bank
    The purpose of this paper is to summarize the challenges and the practical successes that a selected number of countries are experiencing in moving towards 'climate-smart' agriculture while also meeting the food requirements of a growing population, broader economic development and green growth objectives. It complements papers prepared in 2010 on technologies and policy instruments, research, and farmers' perspectives. The paper is also intended to provide a broad country perspective to two additional papers produced for a meeting of African Ministers of Agriculture which took place in Johannesburg in September 2011. The main conclusion is that a number of countries have made impressive progress in integrating 'climate-smart agriculture' into broader development and growth programs. Several countries are supporting policy measures and programs to conserve soil and moisture while enhancing productivity and competitiveness, and are addressing the particular concerns of drought-prone semi-arid areas. They are improving agricultural water management and watershed management, and addressing sea-surges, salinity and coastal flooding. Some countries are also including climate-smart agriculture as a core element in broader green growth agendas. The private sector has a key role to play in climate-smart agriculture, especially where the enabling environment has been favorable. Achieving climate-smart agriculture needs an integrated approach, tackling productivity and food security, risk and resilience, and low carbon growth together, but integration and institutional coordination remains a challenge in many countries.
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    Domestic Terms of Trade in Pakistan : Implications for Agricultural Pricing and Taxation Policies
    (Washington, DC, 2010-11) World Bank
    In 2008 the Government of Pakistan agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase the tax/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 3.5 percentage points over the medium term. This commitment has rekindled the debate regarding the agricultural income tax. Advocates of an agricultural income tax argue that the sector remains protected by political interests, while opponents to such a tax maintain that agriculture is already subject to significant indirect taxation, mainly because of prevailing price distortions in agricultural product markets. This paper reviews the literature on domestic terms of trade analysis in Pakistan and calculates an updated set of terms of trade indices for agriculture relative to industry. The paper also discusses key issues with regard to the imposition of agricultural income tax in Pakistan, and uses simulation results from a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Pakistan economy to analyze the potential effects of the imposition of an agricultural income tax on poverty and fiscal revenues. The results suggest that the domestic terms of trade have remained unfavorable for Pakistan's agriculture during almost the entire 2000-2009 period. Agriculture's terms of trade declined from 2001-02 to 2003-04 before improving only slightly during the period from 2004-05 to 2006-07. As of 2007 however, prices of agricultural commodities started rising resulting in significant increases in agriculture's terms of trade. But in spite of the substantial increases in agricultural prices, the terms of trade for agriculture, though on a rising trend, remained marginally unfavorable to the sector.
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    Revealed Comparative Advantage of Pakistan's Agricultural Exports
    (Washington, DC, 2010-11) World Bank
    Pakistan is widely believed to be underperforming as far as its agricultural export potential is concerned. However, analyses to support this allegation are very few, in part due to the lack of easily accessible data. In this paper provide the first necessary step in the analysis of Pakistan's comparative advantage in agricultural export markets. However, little or no analysis has been done that sheds some more light on this issue, in the sense of better specifying in which commodities and which markets Pakistan's comparative advantage is strongest. This paper attempts to start filling that void by quantifying the degree of comparative advantage of Pakistan agricultural export products in major overseas markets. This quantification is a necessary first step in getting a better handle on the factors that may limit the extent to which Pakistan is able to enter markets where it has a comparative advantage. Expansion of Pakistan's share in overseas export markets is crucial for further development of the country's agricultural sector. The main objective of the paper is to identify products where Pakistan has demonstrated comparative advantage, and to provide a first step towards understanding the factors that at present limit possibilities for further exploiting that advantage. The paper analyzes actual export flows and calculates measures of revealed comparative advantage. The focus in this paper being on agricultural trade, the analysis is based on international trade data that incorporates a unique degree of detail not seen before in trade analyses for Pakistan.