Other Agriculture Study
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Publication
The Costs of Irrigation Inefficiency in Tajikistan
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-01-24)The Aral Sea Basin consists of the drainage area of two major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The rivers originate in the Tien Shan Mountains and the Pamirs, and run through Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. An estimated 116 k -
Publication
Tajikistan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture or outside the country, which require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’, which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. The agriculture sector’s exposure to production and price risk is increasing. Climate change is increasing production risks in the short to medium-term by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods and in the longer-term by reducing the availability of water for irrigation due to accelerated glacial melt. The modernization and commercialization of agricultural production and processing, which is critical for sector growth, also raises the sector’s exposure to price risk at a time of high volatility on international markets for agricultural commodities. An effective response to these risks requires a broader, more integrated approach to risk management than the current system of ex-ante, public sector activity associated with crop and livestock disease and ad hoc, ex-post emergency responses to local disasters. Measures to strengthen risk mitigation will need to be mainstreamed into sector development and investment programs, additional human and financial resources will need to be allocated to the public institutions responsible for ex-ante and ex-post risk management, and the potential for transfer (insurance) mechanisms will need to be clarified and developed where feasible. Given the limited human and financial resources available for public sector activity, a clear sense of the priorities for agriculture risk management is also required, together with a balanced view of the respective roles of public and private sector stakeholders. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan
(Washington, DC, 2012-01)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 3. Livestock Sector Review
(Washington, DC, 2012-01)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 2. Cotton Sector in the Global Context
(Washington, DC, 2012-01)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 1. Cotton Sector Review
(Washington, DC, 2012-01)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 6. Rural Poverty
(Washington, DC, 2012)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 5. Agriculture Growth Decomposition
(Washington, DC, 2012)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular. -
Publication
Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan, Technical Annex 4. Horticulture Sector Review
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular.