Other Agriculture Study
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Publication
Sustainable, Inclusive Agriculture Sector Growth in Armenia: Lessons from Recent Experience of Growth and Contraction
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05)This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Armenia has been prepared with the aim to identify key challenges and opportunities to advance the twin goals of ending absolute poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The review of Armenia’s agriculture sector forms part of this background material. Following an overview of the sector’s major characteristics, the study analyses the determinants of agriculture sector growth from 2004-2015, a period characterized by both expansion and contraction. The links between this growth and employment creation are then considered, followed by review of the inclusiveness of observed sector growth. Agriculture sector resilience to exogenous shocks is also examined, at both sector and household level. The study concludes by assessing the implications of the analysis for the four original hypotheses -
Publication
New Opportunities and Old Constraints: The Context for Agriculture Sector Development in Serbia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-04)Agriculture sector performance in Serbia is characterized by both stagnant sector growth and a substantial increase in agricultural exports. This report describes the reasons for this paradox and its implications for future sector policy. Observed export growth is narrowly based, despite Serbia’s potential to produce and export a range of crop and livestock products. This export growth has been offset by stagnation or long-term contraction elsewhere in the sector. Current agricultural policy is not conducive to more broad based growth. High commodity support for cereal and oilseeds exacerbates the disparate regional and sub-sector trends in performance. Area and headage payments provide little incentive to increase farm output and freeze farm structure. Leased land is also ineligible for budget support, further discouraging farm expansion. The predominance of small, mixed-income farms thus remains a major constraint to increased competitiveness and sector growth. Policies also change significantly from year to year, discouraging investment. New trade agreements have increased the opportunities for both agricultural exports and imports. The EU is now Serbia’s major trading partner for agricultural products, displacing trade with its traditional CEFTA partners. These changes have exposed the sector to high levels of competition from EU products, however, on both domestic and regional markets. But while agriculture exhibits high revealed comparative advantage, most agriculture industries are struggling to maintain their position in domestic and foreign markets. Three factors thus limit the sector’s capacity to benefit fully from its favorable resource base and new trade opportunities: a farm structure dominated by small to medium sized, mixed income farms; the low performance of industries selling into domestic and export markets; and an inappropriate policy framework. Future agricultural policy will need to increase support for medium-sized farms in order to broaden the base for growth; and increase policy stability to facilitate investment. -
Publication
Kazakhstan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture that require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’ which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. A broad-based program to improve livestock productivity is recommended to strengthen the resilience of livestock production systems and rangeland use in Kazakhstan. Proposed interventions include measures to: (i) reverse degradation of water, soil and vegetation cover; (ii) safeguard the long-term viability of rangeland ecosystems, while ensuring sustainable access to grazing land; and (iii) strengthen livestock services (veterinary, animal health, feed and fodder supply, destocking, water and grazing access, and weather and market information). These measures will enable farmers to manage their resources better, to respond to climate and market signals and to protect their resource base in times of drought. The recommendations developed under these three solution areas continue the underlying emphasis on mitigation as the foundation for risk management. They also highlight the mutually reinforcing benefits of measures to improve crop and livestock productivity for both risk management and sector growth. -
Publication
Tajikistan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture or outside the country, which require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’, which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. The agriculture sector’s exposure to production and price risk is increasing. Climate change is increasing production risks in the short to medium-term by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods and in the longer-term by reducing the availability of water for irrigation due to accelerated glacial melt. The modernization and commercialization of agricultural production and processing, which is critical for sector growth, also raises the sector’s exposure to price risk at a time of high volatility on international markets for agricultural commodities. An effective response to these risks requires a broader, more integrated approach to risk management than the current system of ex-ante, public sector activity associated with crop and livestock disease and ad hoc, ex-post emergency responses to local disasters. Measures to strengthen risk mitigation will need to be mainstreamed into sector development and investment programs, additional human and financial resources will need to be allocated to the public institutions responsible for ex-ante and ex-post risk management, and the potential for transfer (insurance) mechanisms will need to be clarified and developed where feasible. Given the limited human and financial resources available for public sector activity, a clear sense of the priorities for agriculture risk management is also required, together with a balanced view of the respective roles of public and private sector stakeholders. -
Publication
Kyrgyz Republic Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture or outside the country, which require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’, which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. The agriculture sector’s exposure to production and price risk is increasing. Climate change is increasing production risks in the short to medium-term by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods and in the longer-term by reducing the availability of water for irrigation due to accelerated glacial melt. The modernization and commercialization of agricultural production and processing, which is critical for sector growth, also raises the sector’s exposure to price risk at a time of high volatility on international markets for agricultural commodities. An effective response to these risks requires a broader, more integrated approach to risk management than the current system of ex-ante, public sector activity associated with crop and livestock disease and ad hoc, ex-post emergency responses to local disasters. Measures to strengthen risk mitigation need to be mainstreamed into sector development and investment programs, additional human and financial resources need to be allocated to the public institutions responsible for ex-ante and ex-post risk management, and the potential for transfer (insurance) mechanisms will need to be clarified and developed where feasible. Given the limited human and financial resources available for public sector activity, a clear sense of the priorities for agriculture risk management is also required, together with a balanced view of the respective roles of public and private sector stakeholders. -
Publication
FYR Macedonia : Agriculture Sector Review
(Washington, DC, 2002-10-30)Economic progress in Macedonia has been variable and slow during the last 10 years. This slow progress is attributable to the succession of political and economic shocks, and the failure to complete economic reform. Agriculture is an important sector in the Macedonia economy, with production and processing contributing around 18% of GDP. As a small economy with a structural deficit in most food commodities, agricultural trade is essential for Macedonia. Current agricultural trade policy, however, constrains agricultural trade. Most Macedonian imports are covered by free trade agreements under the Stabilization and Association Agreement and with regional trading partners. Direct support for agriculture derives from the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy, and the activities of the State Office for Commodity Reserves (SOCR). Budget support is minimal due to the severe current fiscal restrictions. Most support comes from SOCR, through its purchases of wheat and tobacco to maintain official floor prices. Macedonia has 1.28 million ha of agricultural land, about half cultivable and half pastures. All socially owned land was nationalized in 1993. Existing irrigation schemes have been reduced from 40% to 13%. The state of the country's irrigation system is poor and crop damage during the variable summer dry period is prevalent. Produce quality suffers from lack of needed infrastructure supporting post-harvest treatment and packing. The priority areas for agriculture, the expansion of production, and increase in productivity, require that resources be available to efficient private producers, including efficient small ones, and a processing and marketing chain, so that they can expand in areas where they are competitive. This will require a comprehensive restructuring of government policies and support.