Other Agriculture Study

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Nigeria Transforming Agribusiness for Inclusive Recovery, Jobs Creation, and Poverty Reduction: Policy Reforms and Investment Priorities

2021-04-30, Mghenyi, Elliot W., Dankers, Cora, Thurlow, James, Anyiro, Chidozie

Modern economic policy making in Nigeria has placed enormous emphasis on diversification of the economy to non-oil productive sectors. With the aim to restore economic growth following the 2015-16 recession and lay the foundations for long-term structural change, the economic growth and recovery plan (ERGP) recognized the need to diversify the economy to non-oil productive sectors such as agriculture and agro-allied industries, in order to build an economy that can generate inclusive growth and create jobs. This report aims to improve understanding of the potential of the agribusiness sector (primary agriculture plus off-farm agribusiness) to accelerate inclusive recovery from the 2020 recession, create jobs, and reduce poverty. A key early finding of the report is that the agribusiness sector is critical to accelerating inclusive recovery and creating jobs. The report builds on this evidence to identify the specific value chain groups that have most potential to create jobs, reduce poverty, and improve nutrition outcomes. Next, the report offers to highlight the complex set of factors that mediate the performance of agricultural value chains, distinguishing between issues that pertain to upstream primary agriculture, those that affect downstream off-farm agribusiness and cross-cutting challenges. The agribusiness enabling environment takes center stage in this part of the report, focusing on policy reforms around seed regulations, fertilizers quality control, warehouse receipts, and agricultural trade. Finally, the report takes deep dives to identify reforms to increase competitiveness in the value chains that were found to have the most potential to create jobs, reduce poverty, and improve nutrition outcomes.

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Bangladesh: Agricultural Insurance Solutions Appraisal Technical Report

2018-12-17, World Bank Group

Agriculture is a key sector in Bangladesh, but it is highly exposed to risks. While agriculture is a source of employment and livelihood for nearly one in two adults in Bangladesh and contributes about 16 percent to GDP, it is highly exposed to natural hazards. Indeed, Bangladesh is commonly ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to natural disasters with agriculture heavily exposed to floods, cyclones, and drought. In 2007, for instance, Cyclone Sidr destroyed 0.69 million ha of cultivated crop lands and killed over 460,000 head of livestock and poultry.In the past, the government of Bangladesh and development partners have provided substantialsupport to farmers in the aftermath of large disasters, but this approach has disadvantages in that support is not guaranteed to farmers and may be slow. In the aftermath of Cyclone Sidr,recovery and reconstruction needs were estimated at USD 1.3 billion, or 28 percent of governmentexpenditures. In spite of efforts by the government of Bangladesh, the gap between available funding and needs is often large and can reach more than USD 1.5 billion in bad years (Air Worldwide and ADPC 2014). Bangladesh often relies on international assistance, as over the past ten years, only 33 percent of disaster-related expenses has been met by domestic resources. In addition, disaster relief transfers often take substantial time to reach beneficiaries and require to divert resources away from long term development projects. Agricultural insurance offers the government a planned, fast, ex ante alternative to ad hoc disaster response, one that (1) reduces the ex post fiscal burden on the government, (2) improves farmers’ resilience to shocks, and (3) supports the expansion of agricultural credit. Every five years on average in Bangladesh, production shocks lead to a drop of up to 50 percent in crop income available for consumption in average rural households. This drop pushes many small- and medium- scale farmers into poverty. Although many Bangladeshi farmers can access credit, their exposure to risks makes formal financial institutions reluctant to lend to them, so that most farmers borrow from informal lenders at average annual interest rates ranging from 19 percent to 30 percent. Agricultural insurance transfers risk away from farmers, and therefore benefits financial institutions and the government of Bangladesh as well as the farmers themselves.

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Kenya: Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

2015-11, D’Alessandro, Stephen P., Caballero, Jorge, Lichte, John, Simpkin, Simon

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa’s frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country’s food security. The present study was commissioned in part to bridge this knowledge gap. It is the first step in a multiphase process designed to integrate a stronger risk focus into sector planning and development programs. It seeks to learn from and build on a range of broad initiatives by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and its development partners purposed to enhance Kenya’s resilience and response to natural disasters. The ultimate objective is implementation of a holistic and systematic risk management system that will reduce the vulnerability and strengthen the resiliency of Kenya’s agricultural supply chains, and the livelihoods that depend on them. This sector risk assessment is the primary output of phase one. The study’s main objective is to identify, assess, and prioritize principal risks facing Kenya’s agriculture sector by analyzing their impacts via quantitative and qualitative measures. The study’s main findings highlight an agriculture sector increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather variability. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of Kenya’s agriculture sector and a discussion of key growth constraints. Chapter three assesses the main agricultural risks (production, market, and enabling environment). Chapter four analyzes the frequency and severity of the major risks identified and assesses their impact. Chapter five presents some stakeholder perceptions of these risks and the potential to improve their management. Chapter six concludes with an assessment of priorities for risk management and a broad discussion of possible risk management measures that can help to strengthen the resiliency of agricultural supply chains and the livelihoods they support.

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Cambodian Agriculture in Transition: Opportunities and Risks

2015-05-19, World Bank Group

This report seeks to understand the successes, challenges and opportunities of Cambodia’s agricultural transformation over the past decade to derive lessons and insights on how to maintain future agricultural growth, and particularly on the government’s role in facilitating it. It is prepared per the request of the Supreme National Economic Council and the Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries and is based on the primary farm data surveys from 2005 and 2013, and the secondary data from various sources. In 2013-2014, the agricultural growth slowed down to 1 percent from its average of 5.3 percent over 2004-2012. Is the country in transition to a slower agricultural growth? Cambodia can ill afford it because agricultural growth will be critical to continued poverty reduction in the country, given its large size in the economy. Market and private investment friendly policies and targeted public sector investments in irrigation, extension, and other ‘public good’ agricultural services, as feasible within the government’s total budget, can help secure continued robust agricultural growth. The remaining report is organized as follows. Chapter two presents key facts about Cambodia’s recent agricultural development using data from national accounts and various reports. Chapter three provides evidence from the field that explains the changes observed in the national accounts. Chapter four illustrates developments in farming systems, farm budgets, and farm incomes compared to nonfarm incomes. Chapter five presents a farm competitiveness analysis. Chapter six discusses the sources of past growth and their limitations and presents an analysis of (likely) future sources of agricultural growth. Chapter seven presents a long-term vision for the sector, while chapter eight simulates policies and the changes in farm incomes needed to realize this vision. Chapter nine discusses the policy agenda, with implementation details based on national and global experiences. Chapter ten concludes with a summary of the report and policy recommendations. Annexes present the methodology of the 2013 farm survey, detailed farm budgets by crop, projections of selected indicators, and results of the policy simulations.

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Future Foodscapes: Re-imagining Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean

2020-11, Morris, Michael, Sebastian, Ashwini Rekha

Agriculture and food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LAC) are rightfully recognized as among the most successful on the planet: they have fed a fast-growing population, facilitated economic development, enabled urbanization, generated substantial exports, and helped drive down global hunger and poverty. Yet despite these significant contributions, the public image of the region’s agriculture and food systems as dynamic, productive, and efficient reflectsonly part of a more complicated reality. The impressive achievements have come at the expense of significant environmental and health costs. LAC agriculture uses over one-third of the region’s land area, consumes nearly three-quarters of the region’s fresh water resources, and generates almost one-half of the region’s greenhouse gas emissions. And despite the consistent food production surpluses, millions of people in LAC regularly go hungry or suffer from malnutrition and related diseases. In short, the region’s successes in feeding the population and exporting food to the rest of the world are exacting high costs on people and on the environment.

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Nepal: Sources of Growth in Agriculture for Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

2016-12-01, World Bank Group

Agriculture contributes about 35 percent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nepal. But growth in the sector has been quite volatile in the last decade, tothe extent that the lowest and highest growth rates were recorded in consecutive years. Nepal agriculture is characterized by relatively low yields compared to neighboring countries. Furthermore,land is disproportionately allocated to grain staples (rice, maize, wheat, millet, barley, and buckwheat),despite fruits and vegetables showing relatively higher yields and higher growth in consumption. A proper understanding of the sources of agriculture growth would help identify what kind of agriculture offers most potential to further reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity.Nepal is increasingly becoming a net importer of food, both in high value foods such asfruits and vegetables as well as staples such as rice, potatoes, and maize. Expanding exports would require investments in infrastructure and a conducive regulatory environment to certify that products from Nepal achieve the various Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary standards of foreign markets. The main objective of this report is to identify policy and investment priorities to stimulate agricultural growth for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The study ultimately seeks to inform strategic dialogue between Government of Nepal and the World Bank Group towards investments inagriculture and supporting sectors. The report provides building blocks to identify policy andinvestments priorities. After a brief Introduction, Chapter 2 examines the main drivers of agriculturefor poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The key issues addressed are drivers of agricultural income, drivers of total factor productivity growth, emerging patterns of diversification, degree of mechanization, and constraints to investments in the sector. Chapter 3 examines the effects of public expenditures in fertilizer and seed distribution programs, paying specific attention to effects on: supply of fertilizers, fertilizer application rates, retail prices, private sector participation, performance of the distribution chain, relative access between various categories of farmers, and consistency of the program with inequalities in the distribution of poverty and food and nutritional security. Chapter 4 generates lessons on policy and investments to expand exports. Chapter 5 generates lessons on policy and investments to substitute imports. Chapter 6 provides overall recommendations for policy and investments priorities, while distinguishing between actions needed to stimulate broad-based productivity growth with actions need for export promotion and import substitution.

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Agriculture in Nicaragua: Performance, Challenges, and Options

2015-11, Piccioni, Norman Bentley

This work summarizes background papers prepared for the World Bank Group with significant input from government counterparts and other development partners. It takes stock of major recent developments and argues that a lot has been achieved in the last decade in terms of production of commodities for export and food consumption, with favorable impact on rural poverty reduction. It also argues that the two factors driving the recent agricultural performance, namely favorable international prices and expansion of the agricultural frontier, have reached their limits. So while trade policies are broadly on target, much can be done by focusing on the productivity of small family agriculture and improving competitiveness by reducing transaction costs (logistics) affecting small, medium, and large commercial farms. In the short to medium term, the household income of the rural poor will continue to depend largely on agriculture. Thus interventions will need to take into account the heterogeneity of smallholder agriculture while simultaneously increasing its resilience to climate risks through climate-smart agriculture.

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Improving Agricultural Interventions Under the New National Target Programs in Vietnam

2020-06-08, World Bank

Vietnam has achieved remarkable economic development over the last few decades, realizing major gains in productivity and output and contributing to national goals related to poverty reduction and economic transformation, including an increase in per capita income. While Vietnam has become a major international player in global food markets, there remains a segment of the rural population that has not benefited much from the country's success in terms of economic growth, particularly the success of the agricultural sector. The main objective of this analytical work is to recommend improvements to some of the agricultural interventions under the new National Target Programs (NTPs). There are significant gaps in agricultural incomes between the regions, and between the poor and non-poor within the region. This suggests that agriculture transformation is yet to be completed, and there are untapped opportunities to further increase agricultural incomes of the poor. This report thus focuses on closing this gap in agriculture, as another pathway for out of poverty. Although this work started when the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic was not fully pronounced in Vietnam and around the globe, the pandemic has had significant influence on the national economy as well as the performance of the agricultural sector. The implementation of the recommendations highlighted in this report could help strengthen the strategies for post-COVID-19 (Coronavirus) economic recovery.

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Dynamics of Rural Growth in Bangladesh: Sustaining Poverty Reduction

2016-05-17, World Bank Group

The rural economy in Bangladesh has been a powerful source of economic growth and has substantially reduced poverty, especially since 2000, but the remarkable transformation and unprecedented dynamism in rural Bangladesh are an underexplored, underappreciated, and largely untold story. The analysis identifies the key changes occurring in the rural economy, the principal drivers of rural incomes, the implications for policy, and related actions to foster future growth, further reduce poverty, and improve food security and nutrition. A substantial strength of this study is its empirical foundation, consisting of three sets of detailed data on rural households. Two of the datasets are unique in tracking the same set of households for more than two decades. These data make it possible to examine how change is occurring within and among rural households; they shed considerable light on trends that tend to be obscured at more aggregate levels of analysis. Nationally representative surveys and aggregate secondary data provide complementary and contextually rich insights into the household data.

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Tanzania: Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

2015-06, Arce, Carlos E., Caballero, Jorge

This study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain. Persistence of unmanaged risks in agriculture is a cause of great economic losses for farmers and other actors along the supply chains (for example, traders, processors, and exporters), affecting export earnings and food security. The agricultural sector risk assessment is a straightforward methodology based on a three-phase sequential process. Phase analyzes the chronological occurrence of inter-seasonal agricultural risks with a view to identify and prioritize the risks that are the drivers of agricultural GDP volatility. This report contains the findings and recommendations of the first phase and includes the identification, analysis, and prioritization of major risks facing the agricultural sector in Tanzania, as well as recommendations regarding key solutions. Chapter one gives introduction and context. Chapter two contains an overview of the agricultural sector and its performance, as well as a discussion of key agro-climatic, weather, and policy restrictions and opportunities. Chapter three includes an assessment of major risks (that is, production, market, and enabling environment risks) facing key export and food crops. Chapter four presents an estimate of historical losses due to realized production risks and a correlation of such losses with production volatility. Chapter five provides insights into the exposure to risks by different stakeholders and their actual capacities, vulnerabilities, and potential to manage agricultural risks. Chapter six presents a risk prioritization by different supply chains and discusses the possible solutions, as well as specific recommendations for the agricultural sector development program (ASDP).