Transport Notes

53 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

https://hdl.handle.net/10986/9432

The goal of Transport Notes series is dissemination of recent experiences and innovations in the World Bank Group’s transport sector operations.

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Now showing 1 - 9 of 9

Valuation of Accident Reduction
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
The objective of this note is to advise on a desired and workable method that can be used to place values on accident reduction. The first section of this note identifies the need to categorize accidents if accidents are to be valued, and suggests a method of categorization. Following, it identifies the components of cost that make up total accident costs, while further sections suggest methods that can be used to value casualty related costs, and incident related costs. Other Sections discuss how accident valuation may vary between modes, and suggest that accident valuations are consistent with those utilized in other Bank projects (e.g. health projects). Final Sections discuss the manner that accident costs vary with time, and the relationship between the valuation and the accident prediction m model. The final Section summarizes the principal recommendations of the note.
Evaluation Implications of Sub-Optimum Pricing
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
The note focuses on three specific ways in which sub-optimal pricing can impact on project benefits: 1) through congestion and overcrowding (Section 1); 2) through overpricing and loss of user benefits (Section 2); and 3) through financial deficits which have implications for the rest of the economy (Section 3). Sections 1-3 of the Note seek to give practical advice on each situation, including how to approach the economic analysis of the situation, and the key implications for project appraisal. If pricing policy is not known with certainty at the time of the appraisal, then alternative pricing policies must form part of the risk and uncertainty analysis. This is covered in Section 4. Conclusions are given in Section 5.
Valuation of Time Savings
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
This note has been drawn from a number of texts including "The Value of Time In Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects" (Gwilliam, 1997), "Values of Travel Time Savings in the UK - Summary and Conclusions" (Mackie et al, 2003), and "The Value of Time in least Developed Countries" (IT Transport, 2002). The conceptual basis for valuing time is discussed in Section 1. Sections 2 and 3 discuss the theoretical basis for valuing work time savings and non-work time savings respectively, while Sections 4 and 5 discuss the value of time savings to buses, and to freight. The treatment of small time savings are presented in Sections 6 and 7. Section 8 sets out the manner that disparities between regions for values of time should be treated within the cost benefit analysis, and the use of standard values of time. Section 9 summarizes the practical methodologies that should be used for the estimation of travel time savings, while Section 10 summarizes the key recommendations of this note.
Notes on the Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
In response to many requests for help in the application of both conventional cost benefit analysis in transport and addressing of the newer topics of interest, we have prepared a series of Economic Evaluation Notes that provide guidance on some of issues that have proven more difficult to deal with. The Economic Evaluation Notes are arranged in three groups. The first group (TRN-6 to TRN-10) provides criteria for selection a particular evaluation technique or approach; the second (TRN-11 to TRN-17) addresses the selection of values of various inputs to the evaluation, and the third (TRN-18 to TRN-26) deals with specific problematic issues in economic evaluation. The Notes are preceded by a Framework (TRN-5), that provides the context within which we use economic evaluation in the transport sector. Economic evaluation involves the assessment of the net value of projects and policies. In the transport sector we value projects in terms of their net worth, the difference between the value of their benefits and their costs, both measured so far as is possible in terms of monetary units. This disarmingly simple statement leads to many questions; evaluation by whom, for whom, from what perspective, at what stage. One of the features of transport decisions is that they typically impact on many parties - transport operators, individual transport users, local residents and businesses, land and property owners, national and local taxpayers.
Distribution of Benefits and Impacts on Poor People
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
This note deals with the extent to which, and the means by which, project level distributional analysis of benefits can be undertaken and how poverty impact indicators can be developed. Section 1 sets out the issues associated with using traditional cost benefit analysis for the appraisal of pro-poor projects. Section 2 discusses the techniques and analysis available to consider the distributional consequences of a transport change, whilst Section 3 sets out a number of indicators that can be used for measuring poverty impacts. A summary of the key recommendations is made in Section 4.
When and How to Use NPV, IRR, and Modified IRR
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
The Economic Evaluation Notes are arranged in three groups. The first group (TRN-6 to TRN-10) provides criteria for selection a particular evaluation technique or approach; the second (TRN-11 to TRN-17) addresses the selection of values of various inputs to the evaluation, and the third (TRN-18 to TRN-26) deals with specific problematic issues in economic evaluation. The Notes are preceded by a Framework (TRN-5), that provides the context within which we use economic evaluation in the transport sector. All three NPV, IRR, and modified IRR are summary measures of project performance. Each one provides a single figure summarizing the impact of the project on economic welfare. Each of the three measures does, however, give subtly different information: 1) NPV focuses on the total welfare gain over the whole life of the project; and, 2) IRR and Modified IRR focus on the rate at which benefits are realized following an initial transport investment.
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
One statement that can confidently be made about any transport project is that the costs and benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools, such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads). This note reviews the general principles of risk and uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity analysis (Sectio
Demand Forecasting Errors
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand forecasts (Section 1). Following that introductory section the error types are described in more detail: measurement error (Section 2), model specification error (Section 3) and External or Exogenous Errors (Section 4). The final section presents a discussion on how to manage demand forecasting errors (Section 5).
Sources of Operating Costs
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
Historically, road vehicle operating costs have tended to dominate highway economic appraisals in developing countries, due to the poor road surfaces that can occur there. The operating costs of railways and ports are also substantial, and form key components of cost benefit analyses of their associated infrastructure. The definition of operating costs for Bank projects is therefore important in obtaining a reliable economic appraisal. In this Note, Section 1 introduces the key issues associated with operating costs, whilst the following sections discuss the components and sources of operating costs by mode. Road vehicle operating costs are presented in Section 2, railway operating costs in Section 3, and port operating costs in Section 4.